dh2022 7 hours ago

But polling is still scientific and harder to manipulate than the betting markets. All of this is covered in th article. You should read it-it is a good article.

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microtonal 7 hours ago | parent | next [-]

harder to manipulate than the betting markets.

Sorry, that was what I meant to imply with the second half of my comment. Still, in my country there have been debates about whether publishing polls shouldn't be forbidden n weeks or days before the election (currently publishing polls and campaigning is only forbidden on election day).

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stickfigure 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

The solution is baked into the problem. If prediction markets become generally embraced by the public (mentioning them on CNN is part of that evolution) then they will be much harder to manipulate. Size matters.

	▲	Imustaskforhelp an hour ago \| parent [-]
		You are assuming everyone stay rational & this becomes a pre-election itself (like poll) but it can change and multiple reasons You got to give even a 1000$ or something in this bet, you are gonna be so vocal about support, manipulation of data to convince unconvinced voters to join you or other details The unconvinced voters are simply gonna bet on the voting side after sometime. For context, a third of the population in US iirc doesn't vote so what's gonna happen is that a difference of few %'s Lead could turn into something massive And that few % can easily be rigged by an irrational actor. You are thinking 1 person = 1 vote (yes/no) but I may be wrong but how these work is in the aggregate and so a rich person can cause much more disruption within the voting system "legally" as well. The point here is the legal part where what can end/what would end up happening is that elites around the world with irrational money can basically get political bases & favours established around the world for their purposes Suppose an election is at 49 A / 51 B but now a rich guy contacted A and said to invest x$ to now make the odds 51 A / 49 B and then this news gets to twitter or any platform and now people get false news and some undecided voters might go bet on 51 itself too so now it might be 53/47 and in real voting election 51 A/49B Some Elections are really close so I am pretty sure something like this is bound to happen sooner than later