I read about mathematical expectation in a poker book for the first time a long time ago and it's really an interesting way to think about the world. In real life, it's a bit different though since there are other factors than just raw percentages like poker hands. For example, you could do everything right and still fail while someone else (like a nepo hire) can do everything wrong and still succeed.

Life's odds are rigged.

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diab0lic 7 hours ago | parent [-]

I think the metaphor is pretty extensible to handle the things you point out.

> you could do everything right and still fail

Sometimes even a high probability draw doesn't get there on the river.

> while someone else (like a nepo hire) can do everything wrong and still succeed

Some people always start with pairs, Axs, or suited connectors.

	▲	altmanaltman 4 hours ago \| parent [-]
		No, that's not what I meant. I meant more like you could flop a high probability draw that does get there on the river, but the nepo kid still wins even though they just had one pair. In poker, there are rules everyone has to follow. In real life, the rules can differ from person to person. Hence, the odds are rigged.