I think the metaphor is pretty extensible to handle the things you point out.

> you could do everything right and still fail

Sometimes even a high probability draw doesn't get there on the river.

> while someone else (like a nepo hire) can do everything wrong and still succeed

Some people always start with pairs, Axs, or suited connectors.

No, that's not what I meant. I meant more like you could flop a high probability draw that does get there on the river, but the nepo kid still wins even though they just had one pair.

In poker, there are rules everyone has to follow. In real life, the rules can differ from person to person. Hence, the odds are rigged.