There's some intersection point between long term decreasing in China's ability (demographic collapse) and long term increase in China's ability (their current build up of military hardware in air, land, and sea that is currently outpacing America's). Maybe somewhere in 10-20 years where their regional military power is much higher than America can project across the Atlantic but they still have a lot of military aged men.

My point is that China can sustain a naval blockade of Taiwan nearly indefinitely, and at some point Taiwan will have to decide whether they want to live under siege forever (poor, cold, getting everything via scarce and expensive air freight), or give up come to a political solution.

I'm not like, rooting for this, I'm just trying to be realistic.

This retarded meme gets posted about PRC bluffing but context behind it illustrates the opposite. The warnings were against US/TW based U2s overflights, which PRC was both warning and doing - actively attempting to shoot down despite having inferior capabilities. The chefs kiss that this is an USSR meme is that PRC shot down more U2s using modified soviet hardware than USSR herself. Even more so when consider PRC issued actual final warning to USSR that ended up in border skirmishes. PRC's actual final warning is "don't say we didn't warn you" which historically predicts PRC kinetic action with high certainty. USSR, India border skirmishes. Korean war against UN. PRC also has directly supported North Vietnam against the French, and threatened UK when they hinted at granting HK independence under Thatcher. That's every NPT nuclear state over territorial / security issues less important than TW. It doesn't always lead to immediate action, but has consistently been prelude to it.

Wow, I knew China were full of it but 900 final warnings?!

Is it better than the alternative? Do you think TSMC wants to see a Dongfeng or ATACMS headed for their fab, if the alternative is a negotiated handover?

Better than it has for Ukraine.

That's announcing 40k WSPMs of eventual capacity spread across 28nm and 16nm nodes. I mean, it's a start, and I'm sure automakers are totally stoked given the Nexperia debacle, but the EU will remain completely dependent on foreign advanced node semiconductors.

Compare to TSMC's Arizona project, which will supply 30% of TSMC's 2nm and smaller process output. Already just one of the six planned TSMC fabs in Arizona is pumping out ~30k WSPMs at 5nm or smaller.

And that doesn't even get into CoWoS packaging, which is essential for all the highest-performance and highest-margin parts.

The fact is: In semiconductors, Europe is getting left in the dust. Sure they can fab some mature node chips for industrial uses--and that's not nothing--but Smartphone SoCs, "AI" accelerators, DRAM, even boring CPUs simply cannot be made any more in Europe, and to the limited extent that they can, they will be horrendously uncompetitive on the market and outclassed in every performance metric by Chinese and American chips.

EU is on a big sovereignty kick right now, which makes sense given that their foreign dependencies keep blowing up in their faces. So it's strange that EU is so complacent about their foreign dependency on advanced node semiconductors.

> rather than be able to rattle a saber back and show some credible backbone.

They sent warships to Greenland. What level of saber rattling do you expect?

Without San Diego based Cymer they can't move forward on their latest and greatest. As far as I know they still do R&D in San Diego even after purchase.

ASML is a critical component, but they don't actually build the chips. And a significant part of their technology is developed in California anyway.