They are 100% going to force the issue.

It will likely be a naval plus air blockade to force a political solution to avoid the messiness of an invasion, but time is on China's side there.

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alex43578 8 hours ago | parent [-]

Is time on their side?

Long term: demographics are worsening for China relative to now or 5 years ago.

Short term: China doesn’t yet have viable homegrown replacements for ASML, TSMC, etc.

Really short term: China blockading Taiwan and suffering the economic fallout would be much more painful than US blockading Cuba/Venezuela/etc.

A decisive kinetic action or a very soft political action, rather than a blockade seems more viable in the current state.

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redhed 7 hours ago | parent | next [-]

There's some intersection point between long term decreasing in China's ability (demographic collapse) and long term increase in China's ability (their current build up of military hardware in air, land, and sea that is currently outpacing America's). Maybe somewhere in 10-20 years where their regional military power is much higher than America can project across the Atlantic but they still have a lot of military aged men.

	▲	alex43578 7 hours ago \| parent [-]
		Atlantic? IDK if China even has aspirations to play World Police like the US. Military protection of things like their interests and the stability of Belt and Road, sure, but I don’t see China trying something like the Gulf War or OEF. It’s very possible that they will be able to dominate South China Sea and their zone of the Pacific, even now, given the proximity advantages and ship/missile production; and I think that would be satisfactory to them. 20 years from now, China’s sphere and America’s sphere are separate, with China having a lead in competing for Africa, and Europe in a very weird place socially, economically, demographically, and WRT Russia/US competition.

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bpodgursky 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

My point is that China can sustain a naval blockade of Taiwan nearly indefinitely, and at some point Taiwan will have to decide whether they want to live under siege forever (poor, cold, getting everything via scarce and expensive air freight), or give up come to a political solution.

I'm not like, rooting for this, I'm just trying to be realistic.

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erxam 3 hours ago | parent [-]

That's exactly what the USA has been doing to Cuba since 1959 and they're still (barely) hanging around. If we go by that example, it'll only end with with an actual invasion (which is what will happen to Cuba within one to two years).

	▲	bpodgursky an hour ago \| parent [-]
		It's not even slightly the same? The US has an embargo that doesn't impact other countries that want to trade with Cuba. China is going to put an actual cordon around Taiwan. Also, the US has no historical reason for claiming Cuba and has no real domestic pressure to do so (nobody in either party is asking for it). China has been very clear they see Taiwan as a part of China and will reunite with it not for economic or strategic reasons, but for nationalistic ones.