Yeah maybe, but personally it feels more like a plateau to me than an exponential takeoff, at the moment.

And this isn't a pessimistic take! I love this period of time where the models themselves are unbelievably useful, and people are also focusing on the user experience of using those amazing models to do useful things. It's an exciting time!

But I'm still pretty skeptical of "these things are about to not require human operators in the loop at all!".

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throwthrowuknow 2 days ago | parent [-]

I can agree that it doesn’t seem exponential yet but this is at least linear progression not a plateau.

	▲	sanderjd 2 days ago \| parent [-]
		Linear progression feels slower (and thus more like a plateau) to me than the end of 2022 through end of 2024 period. The question in my mind is where we are on the s-curve. Are we just now entering hyper-growth? Or are we starting to level out toward maturity? It seems like it must still be hyper-growth, but it feels less that way to me than it did a year ago. I think in large part my sense is that there are two curves happening simultaneously, but at different rates. There is the growth in capabilities, and then there is the growth in adoption. I think it's the first curve that seems to be to have slown a bit. Model improvements seem both amazing and also less revolutionary to me than they did a year or two ago. But the other curve is adoption, and I think that one is way further from maturity. The providers are focusing more on the tooling now that the models are good enough. I'm seeing "normies" (that is, non-programmers) starting to realize the power of Claude Code in their own workflows. I think that's gonna be huge and is just getting started.