Linear progression feels slower (and thus more like a plateau) to me than the end of 2022 through end of 2024 period.

The question in my mind is where we are on the s-curve. Are we just now entering hyper-growth? Or are we starting to level out toward maturity?

It seems like it must still be hyper-growth, but it feels less that way to me than it did a year ago. I think in large part my sense is that there are two curves happening simultaneously, but at different rates. There is the growth in capabilities, and then there is the growth in adoption. I think it's the first curve that seems to be to have slown a bit. Model improvements seem both amazing and also less revolutionary to me than they did a year or two ago.

But the other curve is adoption, and I think that one is way further from maturity. The providers are focusing more on the tooling now that the models are good enough. I'm seeing "normies" (that is, non-programmers) starting to realize the power of Claude Code in their own workflows. I think that's gonna be huge and is just getting started.