| ▲ | toomuchtodo 8 hours ago |
| BYD owns their own fleet of car carriers for export, with the capacity to have ~30k vehicles shipping to other markets at any one time on their vessels. From this piece: > BYD Deliveries outside of China hit 1.05 million in 2025. The company has set a goal to expand overseas sales to between 1.5 million to 1.6 million units in 2026, according to a Citigroup Inc. report in November that cited a meeting with BYD management. Edit: The debt is irrelevant, China isn’t America. They’ll nationalize and inflate away any institutional debt or wipe it out, but still have a third of the world’s manufacturing capacity. Tesla exists on vibes, Chinese EV makers build, for example. jmyeet’s comment mostly nails this: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46456020 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46424124 (citations) (global light vehicle TAM is ~90M units/year, and Chinese EV automakers are going to soak the market with their production capacity) |
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| ▲ | specialp 7 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| China has a huge deflation problem that they export to the world via cheap products. They have a lot of capacity and not enough consumers. So in China, an unstated mild Keynesian approach makes sense. They can sweep debt under the rug and take in inflation from net debtor countries |
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| ▲ | baxtr 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Which on the one hand is great because through that China exports material wealth to the world. At the same time production capacity outside of China has to compete with this "rigged" system, which is near impossible to do. | |
| ▲ | HPsquared 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Falling prices, sounds like the way things should be as real technology and markets develop. Inflation is not natural. |
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| ▲ | faitswulff 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| > They’ll nationalize and inflate away any institutional debt or wipe it out This is just the reverse, actually, China isn’t afraid to go so far as to jail CEOs. There is no such thing as too big to fail in China, and all the Chinese domestic companies know it. The bailout playbook is a western thing. |
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| ▲ | toomuchtodo 7 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | China has been performing debt swaps with local governments to clean up their balance sheets [1], so used as an example. Agree with all of your comment. People make the mistake that China plays by artificial US capital market rules around profit and debt; they do not. They optimize for physical world success, not line go up. [1] Why China Is Hoping $1.6 Trillion Can Fix Its Hidden Debt Problem - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-16/china-eco... | https://archive.today/HsaHV - April 16th, 2025 | | |
| ▲ | faitswulff 7 hours ago | parent [-] | | Ah, I think I get it. Are you saying that regardless of BYD’s continued existence, China will still have 1/3 of the world’s manufacturing capacity? | | |
| ▲ | toomuchtodo 7 hours ago | parent [-] | | Yes, exactly. Just as in the US, when an enterprise gets wiped out and recapitalized, all of the physical assets remain. In China’s case, they are the backstop of last resort, and will always recapitalize according to their nation state planning and target outcomes. They allow companies to operate the assets as long as the Chinese government is willing to allow it, but they remain assets of China. | | |
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| ▲ | victorbjorklund 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | They only jail the people that upset the regime. | | |
| ▲ | ben_w 7 hours ago | parent [-] | | From the outside, it appears that "upset the regime" includes "cheating your way into profits". That said, it's very difficult to be sure if what I see from the outside is propaganda. Or rather, it is always propaganda even when it's true, and I can't tell how much of it is China's own self-promotion vs. other people giving negative propaganda. | | |
| ▲ | victorbjorklund 6 hours ago | parent [-] | | You don’t think president Xi:s family and friends cheated? Of course they have. Yet they don’t go to prison. | | |
| ▲ | ben_w 6 hours ago | parent [-] | | I'm saying from the outside, it doesn't look like that. That's a much weaker statement, as should've been obvious from what I went on to say about propaganda. Example of cheating: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Officials_implicated_by_the_an... And: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Chinese_milk_scandal#Arre... Nevertheless, it would be interesting if someone could, you know, prove, and not merely allege, that Xi Jinping's family or friends cheated. | | |
| ▲ | ctchocula 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | https://panamapapers.org/case-study-china | | |
| ▲ | ben_w 2 hours ago | parent [-] | | Yup, that's the kind of thing I have in mind. Even with the sub-heading "It's legal, and that's the problem."*, and even though this kind of cheating is broader than this reply chain from "There is no such thing as too big to fail in China", this is absolutely within bounds for what I asked for :) * and the not-proof-read AI generated image, that never helps… |
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