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alphazard 20 hours ago

I don't know who this kind of cynic vs. idealist vs. optimist thinking works on/for, but it doesn't seem to give me any kind of conceptual edge. Instead of trying to frame things in terms of a mood or a feeling, it's better to try to understand things in terms of what is likely and unlikely to happen.

Large corporations are just groups of people with conflicting incentives, and that means they are basically incapable of performing certain kinds of tasks. It also means that when the incentives do align, some tasks are very likely to be completed, even with other corporations or governments working in opposition.

Some of those tasks might be things you care about, like making a product of a certain quality, or furthering some other goal you have. In all those cases, it is best to to first think about what is most likely to happen and what is unlikely to happen. You have to think of the organization as just another phenomenon that you could exploit if you properly understood it. Unfortunately, how to manipulate complex systems of humans is an open problem, and if anyone had effective, repeatable solutions, then investors would demand that they be implemented.

As it is, most corporations don't act in the interest of the investors a significant amount of the time, even though they are supposed to. The only thing we can reliably bet on is: all organizations tend towards dysfunctional bureaucracies, the longer they live, and the bigger they get.

atmosx 15 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I believe the terminology is off. The author seems to confuse cynicism with realism.

Cynicism is specific trait and has only negative connotations. It cannot be “good” for a social structure by definition.

Realism is neutral. But we often assume that realism implies cynicism which is not true.

Parrhesia (tact) is the only worthwhile, long term goal in terms of attitude. And that doesn’t include cynicism. It’s about being honest without feeling like betraying yourself.

“Tact is the art of making a point without making an enemy." - (supposedly) Isaac Newton

auggierose 14 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> “Tact is the art of making a point without making an enemy." - (supposedly) Isaac Newton

Never heard of this quote, but I could certainly use a large dose of tact as defined above! The quote seems to be due to an advertising executive though, Howard W. Newton, not Isaac Newton [1].

[1] https://quoteinvestigator.com/2018/07/18/tact/

atmosx 13 hours ago | parent [-]

I can relate, thanks for sharing. Indeed, that doesn't sound like something that Isaac Newton[^1] would say :-)

[^1]: My idea of Isaac Newton comes from Stephenson's novel. But I trust that Mr Stephenson's research because it aligns with Newton's other quotes (i.e. "standing in the shoulder of giants" is nice but he's calling another man a moron, eloquently) and the his relationship with Leibniz wasn't the one I would expect.

exomonk 5 hours ago | parent [-]

"While widely shared as a Newton quote, the earliest known source is advertising executive Howard W. Newton, from a 1946 magazine."

Advertisers probably understand people better than physicists.

kelnos 14 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I don't really agree. The dictionary definition of cynical is "believing the worst of human nature and motives; having a sneering disbelief in e.g. selflessness of others".

That's certainly very extreme, but a tempered, measured belief in the negative aspects of human nature is necessary, I think.

You might say, "that's just realism", but I think they are just separate axes: some amount of cynicism (and idealism) is necessary in order to be realistic. Possibly different amounts in different contexts, depending on the other people involved.

bostik 9 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Humans are unavoidable optimists and (sadly) the only sustainable approach is to assume the worst of everyone.

Then when they eventually outdo even your worst expectations, you will be less disappointed by the gap between your original impression and the fresh dose of reality. I've adopted a motto that I could finally put words on about a decade ago. "You are not cynical enough."

And no, not even after accounting for the above.

zwnow 8 hours ago | parent [-]

Thats how Finland made it to one of the "happiest" countries. People just not expecting anything from anyone, so if by chance something is even slightly above the bare minimum, its been good.

bostik 5 hours ago | parent [-]

Oddly enough I happen to be Finnish, and formed my view of the world during my first twenty'ish years in there. That view has served me well over the subsequent decades.

It's no surprise or secret that I have since left the country.

igouy 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Skeptical.

admiralrohan 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Cynicism inherently has no negative connotations. People misrepresented it.

The definition of cynicism as per Google "an inclination to believe that people are motivated purely by self-interest".

This statement has nothing inherently negative. It's science, backed by evolution. The whole economic system is based on incentive analysis, the concept of invisible hand. Software architects are taught the Principle of least privilege, why? Because of cynicism, not trusting motive of others. But for everyday life people can't handle it mentally coz they love to think everyone giving them without any expectations.

I know this sounds counterintuitive but this space is limited to write more. If you have clarifying question you can ask me.

threethirtytwo 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I think the terminology objection here is mostly semantic and misses what the author is actually claiming.

No one experiences their own beliefs as “cynical” or “optimistic.” Everyone believes they are being realistic. A cynic does not think “I am distorting reality negatively.” He thinks “this is how things really are.” The labels cynic and optimist are almost always imposed by observers, not chosen by the believer. When someone calls himself a cynic, what he usually means is that others perceive his conclusions, which he believes are factual, as negative.

So the core claim is not that cynicism is a mood or an attitude to aspire to. The claim is that reality itself is often negative, and that people who arrive at pessimistic conclusions are sometimes closer to the truth than people who default to hopeful narratives. Calling that “realism” instead of “cynicism” does not change the substance of the argument.

There is also actual empirical work here, not just vibes. In psychology this shows up under what is sometimes called depressive realism. Multiple studies starting with Alloy and Abramson in the late 1970s found that mildly depressed subjects were more accurate than non depressed subjects at judging contingency, control, and likelihood in certain experimental settings. Non depressed subjects systematically overestimated their influence and future outcomes, while depressed subjects were closer to objective probabilities. Later work refined this and showed the effect is bounded and context dependent, but the core point survived: positive mental health is often associated with optimistic bias, not neutral accuracy.

More broadly, a large literature on optimism bias and self serving bias shows that psychologically healthy people tend to overestimate success, underestimate risk, and interpret ambiguous evidence in their favor. That bias is adaptive and motivating, but it is still a bias. People who lack it tend to have more internally consistent and stable world models, even if those models are less emotionally pleasant.

So saying “realism is neutral” is true in the abstract, but psychologically misleading. Humans do not converge on realism by default. They converge on motivated belief. When someone repeatedly reaches pessimistic conclusions across domains, it is at least plausible that they are sampling reality with fewer affective filters, not merely indulging in a negative personality trait.

That does not mean cynicism is virtuous, or that it should guide social behavior. Tact and parrhesia are social strategies. They are orthogonal to whether your internal model of the world is accurate. You can be accurate and tactful, accurate and abrasive, inaccurate and pleasant, or inaccurate and hostile. Mixing those axes together is what creates confusion here.

The real disagreement is not about tone or attitude. It is about whether optimistic distortions are a feature or a bug. Psychology suggests they are a feature for well being, but a bug for accuracy.

igouy 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Yes, the terminology is off — skepticism.

verisimi 14 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> It cannot be “good” for a social structure by definition.

Is 'good for the social structure' the metric to use for defining good? Should we be serving the social structure to be 'good'?

atmosx 12 hours ago | parent [-]

Hehe. These are tough questions. I had a specific scope in mind. But to answer your questions.

> Is 'good for the social structure' the metric to use for defining good?

No.

> Should we be serving the social structure to be 'good'?

Yes.

Does that make sense? :-)

verisimi 12 hours ago | parent [-]

It makes sense.

But, imagine the case where I do not think serving the social structure is good. And I make what sound like cynical jokes about serving the social structure. For those that believe in serving the social structure, that cynicism only had negative connotations. But for those who don't believe all that, the bitter joke might accurately reflect their understanding according to reality.

atmosx 12 hours ago | parent [-]

Let me narrow the scope a bit. I believe that distrust in others is a flaw in human psychology. But it's old and has been stated by the likes of Plato and Dostoyevsky (e.g. "If God did not exist, everything would be acceptable") and countless others that I look up to.

IMO that is a "series-B" type of argument. We know empirically that great things come out of putting trust on the hands of "unlikely candidates". So even if God doesn't exist, ppl are still capable of "good" just because they chose to do so, given the chance.

At the same time, it would be unwise to blindly trust ppl when there are warnings all around. So why not take a tempered approach? Trust a little, then trust a little more. The "applied answer" (e.g. social policies) falls within a spectrum that might change based on circumstance, there's no absolute representation as if we're picking a point in a Y/X axis, only optimal answers (like NP-complete problems).

I wouldn't call the tempered approach "cynical", I would call that "wise".

verisimi 3 hours ago | parent [-]

> I believe that distrust in others is a flaw in human psychology.

It sounds like you've never met a narcissist or psychopath. I hope you never do. I think your tempered approach is fine, but still doesn't work for some types of personality.

DyslexicAtheist 14 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

cynicism can also be a label applied by those with toxic positivity to anything that is actually realism

Muromec 12 hours ago | parent | next [-]

That often boils down to being downwind from the proverbal fan vs having a switch to turn it on and off.

hackable_sand 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The converse is true

atmosx 13 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Absolutely.

KolibriFly 11 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

What they're calling "cynicism" isn't really a mood so much as shorthand for exactly the probabilistic thinking you're describing

lo_zamoyski 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> Large corporations are just groups of people with conflicting incentives [...] The only thing we can reliably bet on is: all organizations tend towards dysfunctional bureaucracies

All societies are dysfunctional, great and small, because human beings are dysfunctional. But ultimately, the basis for any society - family, community, company, nation, human race, etc - is a common good.

So it makes sense to ask: what is the common good of a given large corporation? Why are we all here, together? I suspect many people don't have a good answer. Having the answer, however, gives you a certain agency and intellectual freedom.

alphazard 3 hours ago | parent [-]

> All societies are dysfunctional, great and small, because human beings are dysfunctional.

I don't agree with the 'because' part of this. It misses my point about why organizations are dysfunctional. Even if the organization was made up of perfectly rational, perfectly functional individuals, it would still be dysfunctional. The people running large corporations, are individually, very rational, and very functional. They are among the most capable humans at achieving their goals. Any explanation of organizational dysfunction has to also explain that data.

The dysfunction (which means actions not aligned with the shareholders) comes from the fact that 1. preferences cannot always be aggregated coherently and 2. that the people operating the corporation do not necessarily have incentives aligned with the shareholders. The first is a mathematical impossibility which cannot be fixed, and the second is a failure of mechanism design. That's the "open problem" I mentioned.

threethirtytwo 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I think this framing quietly smuggles in a category error. Corporations do not behave like scaled up humans, so analyzing them with human intuitions about motivation, learning, or sanity is often misleading.

A corporation is not a person with beliefs, emotions, or a unified model of the world. It is a distributed optimization process composed of agents with local incentives, asymmetric information, and weak feedback loops. What looks like irrationality at the system level is often perfectly rational behavior at the component level. The result is behavior that would be pathological in a human but is structurally normal for an organization.

This is why corporations often resemble what we would call psychopathic traits if observed in individuals. Lack of empathy is not a moral failure, it is an emergent property of decision making that is mediated through abstractions like metrics, quarterly targets, and legal responsibility shields. Harm is externalized because the feedback is delayed, diluted, or borne by parties not represented in the decision loop. There is no felt guilt because there is no felt anything.

Humans update beliefs through direct experience and social feedback. Corporations update through KPIs, incentive realignment, and legal or market pressure. Those signals are coarse, lagging, and often gamed. So you get persistence in obviously harmful or stupid behavior long after any individual inside the company privately knows it is wrong. The system cannot feel embarrassment or regret. It can only respond when the gradient changes.

This also explains why appealing to realism at the individual level often misses the point. Understanding what is likely to happen is useful, but the likelihoods themselves are shaped by incentive topology, not by shared understanding. Even when everyone agrees something will fail, it can still proceed if failure is locally optimal or diffused. Conversely, things that seem impossible can happen quickly when incentives snap into alignment, regardless of prior beliefs.

So cynicism versus optimism is not about mood here. It is about whether you model organizations as intentional agents or as blind selection processes. Once you adopt the latter view, a lot of so called dysfunction stops looking like incompetence and starts looking like exactly what the system was designed to produce.

The depressing part is not that corporations become bureaucratic. It is that they often become very good at optimizing for the wrong thing, and there is no internal mechanism that prefers truth, coherence, or human values unless those happen to coincide with the gradient.

ajuc 11 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> Instead of trying to frame things in terms of a mood or a feeling, it's better to try to understand things in terms of what is likely and unlikely to happen.

Emotions are influencing your thinking, whether you realize it or not. It's better to include them in your model of reality.

It's like modeling the lens you use in your camera. If you do that - you can correct for at least some distortions.