| ▲ | DarkNova6 3 days ago |
| If you are so smug about this, answer me: 1: How man reactors were built in the 1970s and are nearing end-of-life? 2: How many reactors has Europe built since 2005? 3: What's the overrun time of reactors in Europe, compared to China? The only reasonable conclusion to draw is that the industry has existed. It was world class, but the institutional knowledge to bring it back to this quality does not exist and would need to be rebuilt for the new generation of reactors. And we are not even talking Generation 4 here. |
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| ▲ | sailingparrot 3 days ago | parent | next [-] |
| Yes, very few new NPP have been built in Europe recently. Quite a few have been built by Europe however.
The french company Framatome alone, with 18k employees, is actively building 2 EPR reactors in the UK (+ preliminary studies for 8 more), one reactor has been finished last year in France and recently multiple were built or being built in China, India, Russia (although I guess that might be canceled). Its also already operating the 57 french reactors as well as operating reactors in South Africa, China, Korea, Belgium, Finland. Sure, the industry will need to grow, but claiming it basically has to start from 0 is ludicrous. |
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| ▲ | pyrale 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| > 1: How man reactors were built in the 1970s and are nearing end-of-life? > The only reasonable conclusion to draw is that the industry has existed. It was world class, but the institutional knowledge to bring it back to this quality does not exist and would need to be rebuilt for the new generation of reactors. And we are not even talking Generation 4 here. The only reasonable conclusion from your logic is that it would have felt like an even worse idea to build nuclear reactors in the 1970's. Yet, using today's hindsight, it was a great idea. Airbus would have been a terrible idea: no one had built commercial airliners before, and only the US had the know-how. Today, we know otherwise. etc. |
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| ▲ | b3orn 3 days ago | parent | next [-] | | > Airbus would have been a terrible idea: no one had built commercial airliners before, and only the US had the know-how. That's just plain false, Airbus started as a cooperation between a lot of european aerospace companies, which had different a lot of know-how in different fields. For example Sud Aviation (later Aérospatiale, now Airbus) was the French part of the Concorde, they also had the Caravelle. | | |
| ▲ | Aloha 3 days ago | parent [-] | | Plus there was a significant contribution from England - VC10, deHavilland Comet, etc. England also made what I consider to be the prettiest bomber ever made - the Handley-Page Victor |
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| ▲ | okanat 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Well it made sense for France for multiple reasons even in 70s. France didn't trust / like Anglophone dominance in the world. They brutally kept their colonies, sometimes to the bitter end. The mistrust to US/UK hegemony and the strong sense of nationalism is the reason we have Ariane and Airbus programs. Henceforth, they also invested in their own nuclear program. To make small and cheaper nuclear weapons, you need plutonium which can only be created in reactors. Even with that knowledge they burned fossil fuels majorly before 70s. France built majority of their nuclear reactors after 70s oil crisis. So it made sense to have independent resources for them. So they won't need to rely on other nations, some of which were their former colonies that hated them. They had two strong reasons to keep a nuclear base electricity generations. | |
| ▲ | ViewTrick1002 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > The only reasonable conclusion from your logic is that it would have felt like an even worse idea to build nuclear reactors in the 1970's. Yet, using today's hindsight, it was a great idea. If the competition was renewables and storage rather than plants running on imported oil during the oil crisis it would have been. 75% of all new capacity in TWh (I.e. adjusting for capacity factor.) globally are renewables and storage. There’s no need to swim against the river. | | |
| ▲ | mpweiher 3 days ago | parent [-] | | Intermittent renewables have capacity factors in the 10-20% range. So divide by 5. 34 nations have committed to tripling nuclear capacity, including the US, China, France, the UK and many others. And they are acting on this as well. The tide is nuclear, no need to swim against it. And no, countries also doing renewables in no way negates this. | | |
| ▲ | ViewTrick1002 3 days ago | parent | next [-] | | It is quite telling that you are spamming this entire submission with extremely strong opinions about how amazing nuclear power is, ignoring any contrary facts. Taking any mention of renewables close to a personal insult. Then turning around and not understanding that ”TWh” is already adjusted for capacity factor. In my eyes it is hard to take you seriously when you don’t comprehend even basic physical properties of our grid and energy systems. Let alone economics, timelines, opportunity cost etc. | | |
| ▲ | mpweiher 2 days ago | parent [-] | | Strangely enough, I happen to be one bringing facts, whereas you bring the strong opinions backed by...your strong opinions. | | |
| ▲ | seec a day ago | parent | next [-] | | He just likes to argue to death as if his life depended on it.
I picture him as an annoying, relentless mosquito. | |
| ▲ | ViewTrick1002 2 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | You mean facts like that capacity factor is 10-20% of the produced TWh which is a physical measure already adjusted for capacity factor? |
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| ▲ | godelski 2 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | Both you and ViewTrick have it wrong. The tide is neither nuclear nor renewables. The tide is "we've become advanced enough to know that there is no one-size fits all solution for energy generation and are taking a more nuanced approach to address the local and different energy needs of differing regions/grids". I hate these online debates that frame things like "renewables vs nuclear" when the reality should be "zero-carbon emission sources vs carbon emission". The only part of nuclear is in that is if it should be on the table or not. But it is absolutely idiotic from that framework to take nuclear off the table because you're not saying "nuclear everywhere" you're saying "if nuclear makes more sense for this setting, then use nuclear". Don't oversimplify things, it makes everything too complicated. | | |
| ▲ | mpweiher 13 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | I agree with your last 4 paragraphs 100%. The framing of an either/or situation is one that renewables advocates (commonly) make, it is not shared by nuclear advocates. Almost all industrialized nations are doing both. | |
| ▲ | ViewTrick1002 2 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | The problem is that we can’t be wasting money and opportunity cost that could have larger impact decarbonizing agriculture, construction, aviation, maritime shipping etc on handouts from tax money to new built nuclear power. As soon as zero fuel cost renewables enters the picture the mix of extremely high CAPEX and acceptable OPEX for new built nuclear makes it the worst companion imaginable. The problem is that the setting nuclear power makes sense in is for the people living north of the arctic without abundant hydro or a transmission grid. We’re now down to a handful communities in Russia, the US and Canada and Svalbard. If these communities pertaining a few hundred thousand people keep running on fossil fuels while we achieve larger impact elsewhere that’s perfectly acceptable. | | |
| ▲ | godelski 2 days ago | parent [-] | | > The problem is that we can’t be wasting money and opportunity cost that could have larger impact decarbonizing
I agree. FULLHEARTEDLY. That is at the very root of my message, isn't it? > on handouts from tax money to new built nuclear power.
But this is where I disagree. For 2 reasons1) You don't seem to be applying this same measure to other energy sources like renewables, storage, and so on. 2) "Government money" works differently than "people money". I am not the best person to explain this but I'll summarize what my girlfriend and her dad constantly say, both having PhDs in economics (who teach this stuff and work with governments) "An economist can only tell you how much something costs, not if you should do it or if the results are worth the cost." Like a economist can tell you how much a hospital will cost and how many lives it might save, but at the end of the day they can't tell you if that's the right choice or not. # Costs You really should check out the Lazard report[0]. They get pretty detailed. Jump to page 8 and you'll see a table like this (let's see how well I can format this here lol. Won't look nice on mobile) Solar (Comm & C&I) $81----------------------$217
Solar (Util) $38----$78
Solar + Stor (Util) $50-------------$131
GeoTherm $66-------$109
Wind (OnShore) $37--------$86
Wind+Stor (On) $44------------$123
Wind (OffShore) $70----------------$157
Gas $108^5 $149-----------------------$251
Nuclear $34^5 $141--$169^6--$200 $228^6
Gas Comb Cyc $31^5 $48-----$107^7-$109
^5: Reflects cot of opperating fully depreciated facilities, includes decommissioning, salvage, restoration
^6: Based on Vogtle nuclear power plant with "learning curve" being ~30% between units 3&4. Based on 70 year lifespan
So there's important things here. 1) *Existing Nuclear* is the cheapest zero-carbon source
2) Vogtle is Lazard's *ONLY* source of data for new nuclear
2.1) Removing the "Learning Curve" costs from Vogtle puts competitive with renewables ($118-$160)
2.2) Including the "Learning Curve" Vogtle is already competitive with rooftop solar
3) (Page 9) Renewable prices are much cheaper thanks to subsidies.
3.1) Solar
$81-$217 --> $51-$178
$38-$78 --> $20-$57
$50-$131 --> $33-$111
3.2) Same for wind but you can look
3.3) *NOTE* Trump is ending subsidies
You're also going to be very interested with pages 19-20 for storage costs. In particular the cost of residential storage. > The problem is that the setting nuclear power makes sense
This is just not true! You've vastly oversimplified the setting. I'd agree, there's probably no reason for nuclear in the American Southwest. There's lots of sun, lots of open land, and lower environmental impacts. But this isn't true elsewhere. Hydro is great, but you forget that it has pretty heavy environmental impacts as well. You have to create a reservoir, meaning you have to put land under water. Not to mention how it changes the water.There's no free lunch! # "[Costs] can't tell you if that's the right choice or not" And that's the reason I said what I said! You both are vastly oversimplifying things to the point where you think there's one right answer. THERE ISN'T. The whole point of the renewables movement isn't to make cheap electricity, it is *to make the environment better* while still producing the energy we need and at affordable prices. If this was just a price discussion then we wouldn't be where we are and gas and coal would be the cheapest option. *BUT we care about the environment*. Not just the carbon in the air, but the carbon in the ocean, the animals it impacts, the forests and lands (both of which are also a vital part of natural carbon sequestration!), and making the planet a better place not just for humans but all life. Get out of your internet armchair and go find out what actual experts are saying. Not the dumb science communicators on YouTube. Not the clickbait like "IFuckingLoveScience". Go watch lectures online. Go watch lectures in person! I don't know how to tell you this, but you can straight up email any professor at any university. People respond! Not only that, but you can go sit in on their classes (I'd suggest you ask first, but nobody fucking takes attendance). Go grab actual books (those people will recommend those books to you too!). Take your passion for arguing on the internet and make sure it is at least equal to the passion you have for learning about the actual subject matter. If your love of arguing is greater than your love of the actual subject then I promise you, you are harming the very community you believe you are fighting for. You can even go ahead and ask those same people I'm requesting you reach out to and I'm sure plenty will tell you the same. I mean for Christ's sake, you got so caught up in me calling you out that you didn't even recognize I called out the person you were arguing with and instead put me into the same bucket! Clearly putting me in the same bucket as mpweiher is a categorical mistake! [0] https://www.lazard.com/media/eijnqja3/lazards-lcoeplus-june-... | | |
| ▲ | mpweiher 13 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | In fact, Lazard themselves are very aware that their numbers are not representative for nuclear (as indicated by the footnote) and they themselves are very bullish on nuclear. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=16HVh_Fx6LQ “We do not, in this study, try to cost out new nuclear” (2:35) “We think nuclear will be a big part of the future” (2:47) “the costs of nuclear should go down “ (12:54) “next five to 10 years the nuclear bar the one that's most likely to change the most in in terms of cost reduction” (14:06) | |
| ▲ | seec a day ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Thank you for that. I'm always tired of the anti-nuclear zealots that make it look like it's an either/or situation. We can (and should) do both. Even if renewable plus storage ends up being sufficient in some places, it is extremely unlikely that will apply everywhere.
And at the current production rates, it would take multiple decades to transition everything.
Even if we take forever (10 years+) to build new nuclear, as it happens to be right now, it would still be beneficial. And there is no good reason we can't build fast like China manages to do right now. | | |
| ▲ | mpweiher 13 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Exactly! For example, French nuclear capacity factors are currently rising. One reason, as far as I can tell, is that they can now use intermittent renewables for at least some of the peak load, meaning they don't have to ramp their nuclear plants up and down. Win win! Also, PV is absolutely fantastic for hot deserts: lots of sunshine and a lot of load that correlates almost perfectly with that very same sunshine. | | |
| ▲ | ViewTrick1002 12 hours ago | parent [-] | | French capacity factors are rising because half their fleet was offline [1] in 2022-23 and they are finally getting out of that. But apparently nuclear power is 100% reliable and does not need any backup since that would add to the already unfathomably large costs for new built nuclear power. In terms of total energy produced France is far off their earlier peaks. [2] They just keep shrinking the nuclear share. [1]: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/15/business/nuclear-power-fr... [2]: https://ember-energy.org/data/electricity-data-explorer/?ent... | | |
| ▲ | mpweiher 11 hours ago | parent [-] | | 2022. My kind of humor. Until March of 2023, decreasing the nuclear share was the law in France. The law said that the nuclear share was to be decreased to below 50%. In addition, the absolute capacity of nuclear power was not allowed to increase. So in order to build even just one new nuclear power plant, for example to maintain industrial capacity, they had to shut down two existing plants. Which generally makes very little sense. And it precluded building nuclear power plants the way we know how to build them quickly and cheaply: multiple units of the same design, slightly overlapping. So the law forced France to build Flamanville 3 the exact way we know how not to do it. |
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| ▲ | ViewTrick1002 a day ago | parent | prev [-] | | > Even if we take forever (10 years+) to build new nuclear, as it happens to be right now, it would still be beneficial. Why would it be benifical to waste multiples more money on less results taking longer time to delvier? This seems like zeolotry rather than logic speaking. | | |
| ▲ | mpweiher 13 hours ago | parent [-] | | Comparison: 1. France decarbonized their electricity sector in 15 years. Cost was €228 billion. 2. Germany has been trying and failing to decarbonize their electricity sector for the last 20+ years, the "Energiewende". Cost so far: €700 billion and rising. Specific CO₂ emissions for electricity are 10x worse than France (2024 numbers, 2025 isn't over yet, but so far it looks like little or no change). Which is faster and cheaper, in your humble opinion: (1) or (2)? | | |
| ▲ | ViewTrick1002 12 hours ago | parent [-] | | These are typical disingenuous pro-nuclear arguments trying to frame it as a comparison between two non-existent options in 2025 because rooting our future in reality makes your so position untenable that even you can't bring yourself to type it out. 1. We pay 2025 (soon 2026) costs for renewables and storage today. Thus a total sum calculated by adding up costs for 2010 solar subsidies is not applicable. 2. We pay 2025 (soon 2026) costs for nuclear power today. Thus a total sum calculated on half a century old French data is not applicable. But thanks for the admission that as soon as new built nuclear power costs and construction times face our 2026 reality it becomes economic and opportunity cost lunacy to invest in it, unless you have extraneous motives like military ambitions. |
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| ▲ | ViewTrick1002 a day ago | parent | prev [-] | | Renewable energy and storage are built without subsidies all over the world? 75% of all new capacity in TWh (i.e. corrected for capacity factor) is not built on feel good environmentalism. It is pure market economics. I am applying the same measure to both. What renewable subsidies can do is speed up our uptake by stranding fossil assets faster. Which is why the fossil lobby is allying with nuclear power since it knows any money redirected to the nuclear industry will prolong the life of their fossil assets. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-12-09/nuclear-e... I think you got lost in the statistics. Your figures are for the US which are some of the highest in the world due to tariffs and a complex regulatory regime. > 2) Vogtle is Lazard's ONLY source of data for new nuclear Adding Flamanville 3, Hinkley Point C, the proposed EPR2 fleet, Virgil C. Summer and the countless started but then unfinished projects does not paint any prettier picture for western new built nuclear power. This is an eye-opening list: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_canceled_nuclear_react... That only contains the cancelled reactors, there's a bunch which is still in limbo. > You're also going to be very interested with pages 19-20 for storage costs. In particular the cost of residential storage. Large scale storage is down to $50/kWh. Home storage less than $100/kWh. These are prices you can access in for example Europe and Australia, but it won’t be a western company. See for example: https://www.docanpower.com/eu-stock/zz-48kwh-50kwh-51-2v-942... > If this was just a price discussion then we wouldn't be where we are and gas and coal would be the cheapest option That is where it started. Today renewables are the cheapest energy source in human history. It is cheaper all-in than the cost to run fully depreciated coal and gas plants. What we are seeing is that for the first time in centuries we are lowering the global price floor for energy. From fossil fuels to renewables. We’ve seen this happen in the past with hydro. Which famously is "geographically limited" after we quickly dammed up near every river globally Nuclear power was an attempt at this starting 70 years ago. It didn’t deliver. It’s time we let go. The renewables movement started as a way make our world better. Now we’re at the cusp of unlocking the next step of available energy for humanity while keeping it green. Celebrate that rather than locking in useless handouts for new built nuclear power. The time to invest in all alternatives was 20 years ago. We did that with for example the Energy Policy Act of 2005. The starting of Gen 3+ reactor projects all over the western world and similar measures. We also started to really invest in renewables. Based on this investment we can unequivocally say that new built nuclear power is a dead-end waste of taxpayer money while on the other hand renewables and storage are delivering way way way beyond our wildest dreams. | | |
| ▲ | mpweiher 13 hours ago | parent [-] | | >> 2) Vogtle is Lazard's ONLY source of data for new nuclear
> Adding Flamanville 3, Hinkley Point C, the proposed EPR2 fleet, Virgil C. Summer ... ...doesn't broaden the data on which you base your conclusions nearly enough to make any broad predictions. Even if things were normal, a couple of hand-picked examples don't show much of anything. But things are not "normal" with that selection. All of these projects are of just two reactor types, the Westinghouse AP-1000 and the French EPR. One of these has even been discontinued by its manufacturer, because it was too difficult to build. Do you know which? All of these builds were also First of a Kind (FOAK) builds. Westinghouse had submitted plans for the AP-1000 to the NRC that were not actually buildable. Do you think that generalizes to future AP-1000 builds, now that they have modified the plans to make them buildable and have, you know, built them? Speaking of the different between FOAK and NOAK builds (Nth of a Kind): China's first two AP-1000 reactors took about 10 years to build. They are now building a slightly uprated version, the CAP-14000 (so 1,4GW electric instead of 1,0GW), in 5 years. For $3.5 bn. Coming back to FOAK builds: Hinkley Point C had 7000 changes applied by the regulator to the design while it was being built. | | |
| ▲ | ViewTrick1002 13 hours ago | parent [-] | | Are you saying we need to broaden our data to imaginary reactors the west did not build to pad the numbers? The currently proposed handout from tax money for the French EPR2 fleet is 11 cents/kWh and interest free loans. Sum freely. > Do you think that generalizes to future AP-1000 builds, now that they have modified the plans to make them buildable and have, you know, built them? Yes. The total cost for the proposed three Polish AP1000s is $47B. The final cost for Vogtle was $37B. A near equivalent cost per GW. Poland haven't even started building and thus haven't begun to enter the long tail of cost increases for nuclear construction. Only beaten in size by the
Olympics and nuclear waste storage. > Coming back to FOAK builds: Hinkley Point C had 7000 changes applied by the regulator to the design while it was being built. Lets blame everything on ”FOAK”. Despite Hinkley point C being reactor 5 and 6 in the EPR series. But that is of course ”FOAK”. Then allude that the next UK reactor will be cheaper. Despite the projected cost for Sizewell C is £38B before even starting compared to the current projection at £42-48B for Hinkley Point C. Sizewell C will be two EPR reactors. You know, the reactor you called discontinued. Despite it not being discontinued. |
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| ▲ | fulafel 3 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | > The only reasonable conclusion from your logic is that it would have felt like an even worse idea to build nuclear reactors in the 1970's. Yet, using today's hindsight, it was a great idea. Consider opportunity costs. If all the public money that Europeans invested to nuclear (it started way before the 70s of course) was put into renewables/storage r&d, we would have had great renewables decades earlier, and by now would be swimming in it. |
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| ▲ | sigmar 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| These questions are inane. No, "all existing experts" did not retire. not making new plants was a decision made by politicians. Europe has never stopped working on creating new and better nuclear reactor designs
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/EPR_(nuclear_reactor)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ITER |
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| ▲ | hvb2 3 days ago | parent [-] | | Iter is a research project that Europe is a part of, along with the rest of the world. That has nothing to do with building power plants, at least not anytime soon. We haven't built a reactor in a long time. So those EPRs being built are all way behind schedule and thus costing substantially more. You can design whatever you want. Building one is a whole different story. That's not an opinion that's just what happened at the first 2 EPRs and Hinckley point isn't going great either | | |
| ▲ | laurencerowe 3 days ago | parent | next [-] | | Yup. Europe can absolutely still build reactors, just not at a price that is economically competitive. Olkiluoto 3 started regular production in 2023, taking 18 years to build at a cost of €11 billion (3x over budget). Flamanville 3 started regular production in 2024, taking 17 years to build at a cost of €13.2 billion (4x over budget) or €19.1 billion including financing in 2015 prices. Hinkley Point C (two reactors) is currently estimated to have its first unit come online around 2030, taking 14 years with total costs now estimated at £31-35 billion / €36–41 billion (2x over budget) in 2015 prices. | | |
| ▲ | golem14 3 days ago | parent | next [-] | | I found an interesting set of charts + explanation for China: https://www.reddit.com/r/Infographics/comments/1ijcocq/chine... It would really be great to understand (rather than me guessing) China's rationale to build these plants, and also their safety. They generate about 5% of their electricity with nuclear. That's a lot, but is it enough to power the country if other alternatives stop being viable (war, shortages, ...?) Maybe it's OK for them that in such a situation, they just turn off enough residential power to last through the night with nuclear and storage. z Do they see the nuclear research as dual use? My understanding is that nuclear subs and ships do use entirely different nuclear plants. Maybe research into small modular reactors is more dual use. There's also use for those reactors if they really want to build moon bases. Maybe at their cost of the plans (I heard ≈3B for a 1+GW plant), this is actually competitive with solar+storage. It's definitely competitive with western nuclear power plants, if they want to export in other developing markets. | | |
| ▲ | laurencerowe 3 days ago | parent [-] | | Rather than being dual use I think it’s more that countries want to keep their strategic industrial capacity around in terms of the nuclear engineering expertise in firms and universities that can potentially be redirected if needed. |
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| ▲ | mikestorrent 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | The problem is that we insist on building nuclear plants like cathedrals, when we need to build them like Model T Fords. Small modular reactors need to be rolling out of a factory ready to go, so we can do large redundant arrays of them, put them on trains to transport them around, etc. A nuclear power station making a couple MW should cost maybe a few million tops once we have the ability to make hundreds of them a year from a factory instead of creating these 20 year projects for gigantic facilities that are all bespoke | | | |
| ▲ | mpweiher 3 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | Funny, the Finns are super happy with their "uneconomic" nuclear reactors. Current approval rating for nuclear is now 81%, up from 77% last year. The UK is so disappointed by their HPC project (which is the most expensive nuclear reactor project in history, AFAIK), that they just completed the investment decision for the follow-up Sizewell-C, which will also be 2 UK-EPRs. Oh, the guarantee price for HPC is the same as that for various off-shore wind-projects. So obviously economically uncompetitive. At 10 pence/kWh the two reactors at HPC will produce electricity worth £200 billion. Which does put the cost of £41 billion into perspective, despite that being the most ridiculously over-time and over budget nuclear project in history. Actually, Flamanville 3 did not start "regular" production in 2024, they were just given go-ahead to go to full power a few days ago. It was first grid-connected in 2024 and then started a lengthy ramp-up phase. It slowly coming online was the time for the Cour des Comptes to give its verdict, which was pretty damning. Flamanville 3 was probably the worst run nuclear project in French history. And even so, this "damning" verdict was that it FV3 would only be somewhat and in the worst case marginally profitable. But still profitable. Which is better than pretty much every intermittent renewables project out there, certainly in Europe. EDF is often accused of receiving heavy state subsides, with the implication that this is to keep the nuclear power plants going or subsidize nuclear electricity. It is true that EDF gets state subsidies. For their intermittent renewable projects. Ba-da-dum-tss. The nuclear party of their business is tremendously profitable, despite being forced to subsidize industry through the ARENH program. | | |
| ▲ | laurencerowe 3 days ago | parent | next [-] | | Existing nuclear reactors produce incredibly cheap power. The German decision to stop theirs before coal should be considered an environmental crime. Finns should be super happy with Nuclear since the cost overruns were overwhelmingly born by Areva (majority owned by the French state) which accumulated losses of €5.5 billion and went bust! As a nuclear weapons power the UK has a national security interest to keep its nuclear industry around. It needs to build some reactors to do that, but given the prices of new nuclear I don't expect it to build more than the minimum necessary. Hinkley Point C comes in at £92.50/MWh in 2012 prices (£128.90 in 2024 prices). At the last auction wind prices were £54.23/MWh in 2012 prices (£75.68/MWh 2024 prices). Now those prices for intermittent wind exclude the cost of providing backup power with gas but that is still much cheaper than nuclear. | | |
| ▲ | Mawr 2 days ago | parent [-] | | > Now those prices for intermittent wind exclude the cost of providing backup power with gas Yes, let's just handwave those concerns away, it's not like the grid needs power 100% of the time or anything. Two weeks without wind? No problem, just burn gas :) It's so cheap, independent of foreign supply, doesn't leak out of pipes and isn't a huge environmental hazard at all. | | |
| ▲ | hvb2 2 days ago | parent [-] | | But then also be honest that nuclear can't solve that problem either. It's extremely slow to ramp up and down so it cannot keep the grid stable either. So the only way to power your grid with all nuclear is to produce at the daily peak load + margin all day. Every day | | |
| ▲ | mpweiher 2 days ago | parent [-] | | This is completely false. Nuclear plants can and do ramp up quickly, thought not from/to 0, but that's generally not necessary. And they provide grid stability by having rotating masses on the grid, and thus combine pretty nicely with small to medium amounts of intermittent renewals that can provide some of the peak power. | | |
| ▲ | hvb2 2 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | I disagree. My point was that, just like with renewables, a 100% nuclear grid doesn't work either. They can adjust power but they're typically used as he load with some other source dealing with the peak load needed a short time a day. Typical peak capacity can be off in the middle of the night for example. Nuclear doesn't like that. I'm not saying you can't. I'm saying it's typically not used for that because it's not flexible enough. Wikipedia seems to agree with that
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Load-following_power_plant | |
| ▲ | ViewTrick1002 12 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | > And they provide grid stability by having rotating masses on the grid, and thus combine pretty nicely with small to medium amounts of intermittent renewals that can provide some of the peak power. We already have grids operating without traditional baseload. This is a 2015 talking point. See for example South Australia keeping either 40 MWe or 80 MWe fossil gas in standby (I would presume this is the lowest possible hot standby power level for said plants). They are aiming to phase this out in the near future as storage comes online. https://explore.openelectricity.org.au/energy/sa1/?range=7d&... Inertia is trivially solved in 2025. Either through grid forming inverters which today are available off-the-shelf or the old boring solution of synchronous condensers like the Baltic states used to have enough grid strength to decouple from the Russian grid. https://spectrum.ieee.org/baltic-power-grid | | |
| ▲ | mpweiher 11 hours ago | parent [-] | | Tell that to the Spaniards. | | |
| ▲ | adrianN 10 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > Both the government and Redeia said renewable energy sources were not responsible for the blackout. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/what-caused-iberian-... | |
| ▲ | ViewTrick1002 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | This truly shows your ignorance. Please show curiosity rather than redditesque comments like this. First. The final report of the Iberian blackout is not completed yet. It is taking longer than expected due to how complex the situation was. They did release an interim factual report in which they specify the facts. The full root cause analysis and recommendations on how to prevent similar events is coming in Q1 2026. From the factual report we learn that: 1. The cause was a lack of voltage control. Do you see inertia here? 2. They did expect traditional power plants to provide this, without verifying. 3. They did not expect renewable power plants to provide this, therefore they did not. In about all other grids like, like for example the US, renewable plants are expected to provide voltage control. It is trivially done by extremely cheap off-the-shelf components. But if the expectation does not exist then it will not be provided since the cost is non-zero. https://www.entsoe.eu/publications/blackout/28-april-2025-ib... |
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| ▲ | hvb2 2 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | > At 10 pence/kWh the two reactors at HPC will produce electricity worth £200 billion. 2 things, 10 pence is a lot. Not for retail but no power plant gets anywhere near that. It's mostly like 6 or 7. Aside from that, the money you put in today is not spent on other things so there's an opportunity cost there too. That 40 billion at 2% interest is 60 after 20 years for example > And even so, this "damning" verdict was that it FV3 would only be somewhat and in the worst case marginally profitable. But still profitable. Which is better than pretty much every intermittent renewables project out there, certainly in Europe. What do you mean? Plenty of renewables are built without any government backing.. |
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| ▲ | sigmar 3 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | >We haven't built a reactor in a long time. France finished Flamanville 3 in 2024. Finland finished Olkiluoto 3 in 2022. Are those not recent enough? both were EPR designs | | |
| ▲ | hvb2 3 days ago | parent | next [-] | | Have you looked when they started construction and what their projected end date was? Yes there are new ones but both of those are perfect examples of the lack of knowledge [1]. I'll quote:
> Many of the organisations chosen to work on the different parts of the plant did not have any experience in nuclear, and little understanding of the safety requirements. We'll get there. But yes, we're rebuilding a lot of lost knowledge and paying for the teething issues. 1: https://www.carbonbrief.org/new-nuclear-finlands-cautionary-... | |
| ▲ | t_tsonev 3 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | Those are not really great construction examples, are they? Both projects took 15+ years to complete with huge cost overruns. And for those two "successful" projects, you can find 2 or 3 that failed. | | |
| ▲ | llsf 3 days ago | parent [-] | | It takes time between the plan and putting it online. It is mostly due to regulations. Relax the regulations and it would be cheaper and faster. | | |
| ▲ | hvb2 2 days ago | parent [-] | | The Finnish reactor had one delay because the concrete used for the containment building wasn't of the 'nuclear grade'. That's why those regulations thankfully exist. Building more will help though. This whole thread started about how we had lost important knowledge |
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| ▲ | nine_k 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| France in particular connected a new nuclear power station to the grid as late as 2024 [1]. But the previous reactor was put online in 1999 or so. Three more were built in EU since 2000: one in Finland (Swedish/Finnish design) and two in Slovakia (Soviet/Russian design). [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flamanville_Nuclear_Power_Plan... |
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| ▲ | ZeroGravitas a day ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Another possible conclusion is that it's only possible to build them in societies where they can be secretly subsidized and the EU has passed out of this phase. There's an awkward middle phase where they lie about how long and how much they will cost because the transparency will kill them before they start if real figures are used. But you only get a few chances to pull that trick. |
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| ▲ | godelski 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| > If you are so smug about this, answer me:
Please adhere to the HN guidelines and refrain from this kind of language. We can discuss this more civilly.But I'll answer what I can, assuming your are genuine. > 1: How man reactors were built in the 1970s and are nearing end-of-life?
10 reactors, 3 plants. (57 are currently operational)I think this is a more American-centric comment than you realized... France had a bigger rollout in the 80's and a few from the 90's so there's another decade (*making this time key!*) before a slow decline. Also remember that France is a lot smaller than America so needs less power. Not to mention, France exports a lot of electricity[0]. I want you to look pretty closely at that graph again. It says they exported 81.8TW this year. What's France's nuclear capacity? 380TW[1]. France exports about 15% of its total energy, more than all its hydro (it's next biggest source). You may be interested to see where that electricity goes....[2] France can lose those reactors and be fine, Europe is a different story... > 2: How many reactors has Europe built since 2005?
4, In Russia. But France built 2 reactors in 2002. > 3: What's the overrun time of reactors in Europe, compared to China?
I don't have an answer to this but > the institutional knowledge to bring it back to this quality does not exist
I can tell you that both France and the US are the biggest supporters of international aid in China's rollout. So the institutional knowledge exists and still progressing, albeit slower than before.Besides, I'm not sure this fear even makes sense. What, China could "start from scratch" but "France" (or anywhere else) couldn't? What would make China so unique that such things couldn't be replicated elsewhere? This is a fallacy in logic making the assumption that once skills atrophy that they can never be restored or restore more slowly. If anything we tend to see skills restore far quicker from atrophy than from scratch! So why paint a picture of "give up"? Isn't that just making a self-fulfilling prophecy? [0] https://analysesetdonnees.rte-france.com/en/exchanges/import... [1] https://world-nuclear.org/information-library/country-profil... [2] https://app.electricitymaps.com/map/zone/FR/72h/hourly |
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| ▲ | mikestorrent 3 days ago | parent [-] | | End of the day, it's just a big boiler; we invented it from scratch once, and it should be significantly easier to do it over again even if we do lose some knowledge. That said, the time to accelerate the industry really is now, before the situation gets any worse. | | |
| ▲ | godelski 2 days ago | parent [-] | | I think you're over simplifying things to the point far beyond what is useful to this conversation. While I disagree with the parent who is saying it is essentially a lost cause to restart the industry you go too far in the other direction suggesting it is a trivial endeavor, which misses all the complications that make them take years to build. Might as well say "End of the day, Google is just a text processor" |
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| ▲ | tokai 3 days ago | parent | prev [-] |
| >If you are so smug about this, answer me Is this satire? |