So where do I collect my prize for this 2015 comment? https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=9882217

Never call a man happy until he is dead. Also I don’t think your argument generalizes well - there are plenty of private research investment bubbles that have popped and not reached their original peaks (e.g. VR).

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Tossrock 2 days ago | parent [-]

It wasn't a generalized argument, though, it was a specific one, about AI.

	▲	johncolanduoni 2 days ago \| parent \| next [-]
		Okay, but the only part that’s specific to AI (that the companies investing the money are capturing more value than they’re putting into it) is now false. Even the hyperscalers are not capturing nearly the value they’re investing, though they’re not using debt to finance it. OpenAI and Anthropic are of course blowing through cash like it’s going out of style, and if investor interest drops drastically they’ll likely need to look to get acquired.
	▲	xpe 2 days ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		Here is one sentence from the referenced prediction: > I don't think there will be any more AI winters. This isn't enough to qualify as a testable prediction, in the eyes of people that care about such things, because there is no good way to formulate a resolution criteria for a claim that extends indefinitely into the future. See [1] for a great introduction. [1]: https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/prediction-market-faq