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xpe 2 days ago

Here is one sentence from the referenced prediction:

> I don't think there will be any more AI winters.

This isn't enough to qualify as a testable prediction, in the eyes of people that care about such things, because there is no good way to formulate a resolution criteria for a claim that extends indefinitely into the future. See [1] for a great introduction.

[1]: https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/prediction-market-faq