Remix.run Logo
andreygrehov 3 hours ago

Are they lying about the deaths? I'm not following.

carbocation 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

VAERS cannot be used to establish causality; it cannot correctly be used in the way in which they are purporting to use it[1].

1 = https://www.kff.org/quick-take/fda-memo-linking-covid-vaccin...

andreygrehov 2 hours ago | parent [-]

I respectfully disagree. VAERS can absolutely be used to establish causality when followed by proper expert investigation (which is exactly its purpose as a signal-detection system). The IOM has relied on VAERS data to confirm causal links in 158 vaccine-adverse event pairs, including rotavirus vaccine and intussusception.

Here, FDA career scientists conducted that follow-up: they reviewed 96 child death reports and concluded at least 10 were caused by COVID vaccine myocarditis. That expert finding, not politics, is what triggered the stricter protocols. Healthy skepticism means demanding the full data for review, not preemptively calling it invalid.

fabian2k 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Where is that expert finding published?

As far as I have read about the ACIP decisions they didn't actually provide any real data to support this conclusion.

andreygrehov 2 hours ago | parent [-]

The FDA memo citing 10 vaccine-caused myocarditis deaths in kids came _after_ the Sept. 2025 ACIP vote. ACIP had already dropped routine vaccination for healthy kids 6 mo-17 yr and moved everyone under 65 to "shared decision-making" (high-risk only) [1]

The detailed FDA analysis still isn't public. That's exactly why we should demand it instead of dismissing the claim.

Blame NYTimes for leaking the internal memo. In all honesty they should be fined for doing this.

[1] https://www.hhs.gov/press-room/acip-recommends-covid19-vacci...

magicalist 44 minutes ago | parent [-]

> Blame NYTimes for leaking the internal memo.

Blame them for what, exactly?

We have no information about how highly motivated anti-vaxxers in positions of power over the FDA arrived at this conclusion except "the team has performed an initial analysis"[1]. That's literally it. Your claim that "FDA career scientists" conducted the follow-up can't even be based on this flimsy a statement. Moreover, these deaths have already been investigated by FDA career scientists and found these conclusions unwarranted.

Prasad spends the rest of the memo politically grandstanding (including claiming it was the FDA commissioner that was the hero here, forcing this issue, not FDA career scientists) and dismissing any objections to very obvious arguments against his claim (that have been made and published multiple times over the past five years) without any evidence, while providing no evidence of his own, in a memo addressing FDA career scientists.

Seriously, everyone should go read his memo. It's basically just a shitty antivax substack post, yet will apparently be FDA policy going forward. Another win for meritocracy.

> The detailed FDA analysis still isn't public. That's exactly why we should demand it instead of dismissing the claim.

The only "claim" here just sounds more official because RFKjr got a bunch of his best antivax buddies to be in charge of the FDA (same with the ACIP). There's no way to even consider it without evidence, so there's nothing to dismiss. Come back when you have something real.

[1] https://www.biocentury.com/article/657740

ceejayoz 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

They aren't lying, in the sense that "Hitler provided free food, transportation, and housing to Europe's Jews" isn't technically a lie.

They are using a technically correct piece of data to deeply mislead you. Other pieces of data readily available to us reveal the sleight of hand.

andreygrehov 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Okay, let's run a proof by contradiction.

Assume you're right: VAERS is useless for causality and the 10 deaths are not real or not proven.

What possible benefits does RFK Jr. get from dramatically restricting a vaccine using data he knows is meaningless and will be shredded in 24 hours by every fact-checker and cardiologist on HN/Twitter/younameit?

If he just wanted to scare people for no reason, the rational move is to keep repeating “VAERS proves nothing” and change zero policy. That costs nothing and keeps everyone happy. Instead he’s taking massive heat, angering the entire medical establishment, and shrinking the childhood schedule.

Inventing a fake danger out of junk data brings him zero benefit and enormous political cost. That only makes sense if the internal FDA review actually found something real and alarming.

ceejayoz 2 hours ago | parent [-]

> Assume you're right: VAERS is useless for causality…

Don't assume. https://vaers.hhs.gov/data/dataguide.html "When evaluating data from VAERS, it is important to note that for any reported event, no cause-and-effect relationship has been established."

> What possible benefits does RFK Jr. get from dramatically restricting a vaccine using data he knows is meaningless and will be shredded in 24 hours by every fact-checker and cardiologist on HN/Twitter/younameit?

He gets to restrict vaccines, which is a thing he's wanted to do for decades.

(And not just COVID ones; https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cdc-acip-vaccine-panel-hepatiti... happened this morning. Or the spurious claims about Tylenol and autism.)

What about this administration makes you think they care about having their false claims "shredded in 24 hours"?

andreygrehov 2 hours ago | parent [-]

Duh. VAERS guide says raw reports dont 100% prove causality. Nobody claims they do. That's why FDA's OBPV did the follow-up review of those 96 child deaths and concluded >10 were causal from vaccine myocarditis.

They could've just said "VAERS proves nothing" and left the recommendation unchanged. Instead they wrote it up, leaked it early, and invited the exact scrutiny you're giving it now.

If the conclusion was fake or flimsy, this blows up in their face and RFK looks like a clown. They only take that risk if the OBPV analysis actually held up internally.

Edit: as for the Tylenol, see this https://x.com/HHSGov/status/1970868168995536978

magicalist 25 minutes ago | parent | next [-]

> That's why FDA's OBPV did the follow-up review of those 96 child deaths and concluded >10 were causal from vaccine myocarditis.

We don't actually know who at the OBPV did the review (Prasad only referred to the results coming from "the team") and the causal ranking they used included any case where causality was subjectively rated between "certain" and "possible/likely".

We also know that two orders of magnitude more children died from covid than that, and we have strong studies suggesting that myocarditis from covid is both more common and more severe than the observed cases tied to the covid vaccines, two inconvenient stances that Prasad waves away as insufficiently studied, even as he bases his entire position on a subjective review of something by someone, and doesn't bother filling in those blanks.

> If the conclusion was fake or flimsy, this blows up in their face and RFK looks like a clown

He beclowns himself all the time. He himself walked back the Tylenol claim after convincing Trump to talk about it so publicly and standing by him while he did it. Clearly he's not bothered by it.

ceejayoz 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

> That's why FDA's OBPV did the follow-up review of those 96 child deaths and concluded >10 were causal from vaccine myocarditis.

And we're back at the "Hitler provided free things to Jews" technical truth again. This is likely an accurate statement!

But it'd deeply missing important context.

> If the conclusion was fake or flimsy, this blows up in their face and RFK looks like a clown.

This is likely meaningless to the guy who leaves dead bears in Central Park. The biggest political innovation in the last 50 years or so is the discovery that you can look like a clown without much consequence.

> Edit: as for the Tylenol, see this https://x.com/HHSGov/status/1970868168995536978

I don't recommend eating poop, but that doesn't mean it causes autism.

doctorpangloss 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Haha, who has claimed more victims, vaccines or Dunning-Kruger?

3 hours ago | parent [-]
[deleted]
biophysboy 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

They're lying about the risk-benefit. Myocarditis afflicts covid-infected people in greater numbers.