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chasd00 10 hours ago

Ftfa (the part I could read) “ growth is buoyed by an exuberant stockmarket and artificial-intelligence investment, while ordinary Americans languish”

Black Friday sales set records and it not even cyber Monday. If Americans are languishing then shouldn’t holiday spending be down?

programmertote 9 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I postponed all of my CPG and miscellaneous purchases (think AA batteries, socks, winter pants, skin lotion, body wash, etc.) until Black Friday "sales". I also stocked up on stuff like Ramen. I did NOT buy anything special for myself (e.g., I really wanted Switch 2, but I think it's too overpriced and decided not to pull the trigger).

I'd not be surprised if a good number of people did the same. PLUS, the prices rose by quite a bit between the start of the year and now. So we need to see if this increase is sales match up to inflation (which, unfortunately, would be more difficult to rely on knowing that that metric has become politicized.)

dudus 9 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Same here. My big purchase for Black Friday last year was an OLED TV.

This year was prescription glasses.

benmw333 8 hours ago | parent [-]

bf related, I bought: 1) trail mix 2) licorice 3) books on diy house / carpentry

not bf related but happened this week: 1) cv axles for my car ~500 and will install myself

i am employed and just make it into 6 figures $110k, which apparently is poverty level now if you have a few dependents. i consider myself fortunate.

DaveZale 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

fwiw the Tokyo noodle packs' price actually dropped, if instant noodles is one of your staples.

master_crab 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Black Friday did not set records. Bloomberg stated that it was up 4.1%, but that was not inflation adjusted. So it was just slightly higher than flat.

Not necessarily a bad thing…but not great either.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-29/black-fri...

chasd00 8 hours ago | parent | next [-]

“Slightly higher than flat” is still a new record.

brazukadev 3 hours ago | parent | next [-]

"The best iphone launched yet" feelings

doctorpangloss 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Haha, Black Friday sets record by being the worst discounts ever.

jeffbee 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

You also have to adjust such things for population, which was up about .6% in August vs. last August, the latest data we have.

3eb7988a1663 9 hours ago | parent [-]

Last report I saw said US population was set to drop this year - first time in 250 years. With our demographic boomer bubble, continually dropping fertility, and anti-immigration stance, the trend is likely to continue.

jeffbee 8 hours ago | parent [-]

With the growth we already had in 2025 you'd have to nuke LA to end the year with a decline.

johnnyanmac 6 hours ago | parent [-]

https://www.pew.org/en/research-and-analysis/articles/2025/0...

Most population growth was due to immigration for a while, and immigration (for obvious reasons in 2025) is way, way down.

https://www.derekthompson.org/p/the-us-population-could-shri...

what's your report?

>you'd have to nuke LA

Let's not give this administration ideas, please.

jeffbee 5 hours ago | parent [-]

Do you normally get your demographic statistics from Brookings and AEI? My reference is to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/POPTHM its source being https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2025-09/pi0825.pdf

tayo42 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Doesn't black Friday kind of suck now and for the last few years? There's sales all of the time, and there's all those open secrets about black Friday skus now.

3Mathematicians 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Consumers in the top 10% of the income distribution accounted for 49.2% of total spending, per Bloomberg. If anything, in my opinion, this strengthens the k-shaped economic growth stat that the article mentions.

master_crab 9 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Yup, only the rich are powering this economy now. That bodes poorly for the country’s stability long term.

refurb 8 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Top 10% is a household making more than $191k so a couple making $95k each.

Rich indeed!

JumpCrisscross 6 hours ago | parent [-]

Generally speaking, the rich is anyone who makes slightly more than you.

refurb 5 hours ago | parent [-]

It's like the saying about alcoholics - "an alcoholic is anyone who drinks 1 more drink than you".

almosthere 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

can also look at it as an opportunity to gather friends and start a small drywall company. Those are in demand, for example. The rich are building more buildings than ever. If you live in the bay area, you can very well see 300k / year if you keep yourself busy.

estearum 8 hours ago | parent [-]

Then if you're successful, you can sell it to a PE firm where it will further buoy the rich!

Can't see how this positive feedback loop gets us to a bad place at all!

gruez 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

>Consumers in the top 10% of the income distribution accounted for 49.2% of total spending, per Bloomberg.

What was the historical trend? Otherwise you can't draw much from just "49.2%" alone, aside from a vague sense that stuff should be fairer.

johnnyanmac 6 hours ago | parent [-]

> What was the historical trend?

No, it is not normal for 10% of the coountry to power half the spending. Just think about that statistic for a second. Spending includes groceries, services, and other continual needs. A few private jets can't outspend millions of people buying food.

But here's your chart: https://preview.redd.it/2pcvmm0u3jpf1.png?width=798&auto=web...

nrhrjrjrjtntbt 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Black friday is a datapoint. But maybe people are deferring purchases to these sale periods. What proportion of goods were luxury vs. not.

Also poor people can get into debt they are still poor. Maybe they can afford a nintendo switch but not afford to raise a family.

thinkingtoilet 9 hours ago | parent | next [-]

The only things I bought on Black Friday were things I would normally have bought but just waited a few weeks/months to get.

SoftTalker 9 hours ago | parent [-]

Same among people I know. My MIL needed to replace some kitchen appliances and waited for BF sales.

kshacker 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Deferring sales is one datapoint. But setting records is another datapoint and counter to deferring IMO.

Edit there is talk below of inflation adjusted numbers being high but meh

tomrod 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

K shaped economy with increasing expenditure means the wealthier increase their spending as a portion of the economy and at an absolute level. It is not interpreted as the polity doing well - if anything, it is cause for concern.

Ericson2314 9 hours ago | parent | next [-]

The wealthy don't buy more crap on black Friday.

Inequality is very visible in terms of what sort of consumption occurs. Gotta look at the qualitatives.

alfalfasprout 9 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Sure they do. And during the holiday season too.

zerosizedweasle 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Wealthy people love feeling like they are getting a deal.

Libidinalecon 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

I don't know if it is just the wealthy either.

The retired middle class boomers I know are completely outside the business cycle.

While I don't think they have enough to really be considered wealthy, they have no mortgage payment, a social security check, a pension and most have a 401k.

The business cycle will not change their spending one bit.

AnimalMuppet 9 hours ago | parent [-]

It may, a bit. If the 401k is in the stock market, and the stock market is down, their total visible money is down. That tends to decrease enthusiasm for spending.

bryanlarsen 9 hours ago | parent [-]

It may also affect it a lot. Retirees I know have a retirement plan that involves their retirement accounts being at a specific level at the end of each year. If their accounts are over that level because the stock market had a good year, they consider it funny money that they're allowed to spend.

tadfisher 7 hours ago | parent [-]

That's not a plan, it's a suicide note with extra steps.

addaon 6 hours ago | parent [-]

> That's not a plan, it's a suicide note with extra steps.

Being an aging human is a suicide note. The extra steps are the entire point of retirement.

seanmcdirmid 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Shouldn’t every year be a record considering population growth and inflation?

eru 9 hours ago | parent [-]

You could look at inflation adjusted per-capita sales, of course.

seanmcdirmid 7 hours ago | parent [-]

Ya, when I ask Gemini:

While there isn't a definitive inflation-adjusted per-capita number for 2025, recent data indicates that overall sales growth was outpaced by inflation, meaning consumers likely bought fewer items. Total Black Friday spending was up, but the average number of items purchased declined. For instance, Salesforce reported total spending was up 3% but order volume was down 2%, with average selling prices climbing 7%.

...

Per-capita sales: The increase in spending is largely driven by higher prices, meaning the actual volume of goods purchased per person likely decreased compared to the previous year, even with higher total spending, says The New York Times.

anon373839 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The rise in Black Friday sales is misleading because the sales reflect inflation rather than increased consumer demand.

listenallyall 9 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I think it is more that a greater number of products were heavily marketed by a greater number of companies. My social feeds were flooded with single-product companies and online-only companies aggressively selling all kinds of gear and gadgets. Travel pillows (like 5 different brands), ski socks, luggage, exercise equipment, etc etc. Not gonna lie, I bought some stuff I likely would not have otherwise!

vandal8ind 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

[dead]

AuthAuth 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

the country is growing so it will commonly "set records". We need to look at it in the context of previous years. Before I went and checked the stats I expected to see instore shopping to be down since americans are poorer than previous years and online shopping to be up since demand is growing and online caters to a worldwide audience.

Checking the stats online growth is up and on par with previous years creating that record breaking stat. Instore numbers arent out yet but some figures are claiming less foot traffic in stores compared with previous years. So i'd say to early to really call if spending was down(compared with expectations)

Jupe 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

A few observations:

1. I saw the same headline - the article stated that there were record SEASON sales, not Black Friday sales. The headline did not match the content of the article. 2. Record revenue, not necessarily record units sold. To be expected with inflation. 3. Savvy online shoppers may be bundling purchases to reduce shipping costs. Waiting for a seasonal sale to buy holiday gifts as well as detergent, snacks and underwear may be quite prudent.

Finally, increased sales revenue does not necessarily equate to more jobs. It can, but by no means does it have to.

johnnyanmac 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

>Ftfa (the part I could read)

You did in fact not rtfm?

>Black Friday sales set records and it not even cyber Monday.

https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/29/business/black-friday-us-econ...

I don't know where you're seeing "record numbers". 2024 wasn't a great year and you can argue spending was flat from that after inflation. I think the more relevant factor is "who" is spending the money in such a k-shaped economy. .

eru 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> Ftfa (the part I could read) [...]

https://archive.is/NvSXc

port11 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Others have pointed out the brackets really buying, but I'd also argue that people deferring their purchases to a period of sales is generally not a good thing.

vannevar 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Not necessarily. Average income can be up substantially at the same time that median income remains flat or even declines. This means that it is possible for spending by wealthier Americans to make up for sales lost from the unemployed middle class and poor.

untwerp 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lipstick_effect

jameslk 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

K-shaped economy is the buzz word these days

cal_dent 5 hours ago | parent [-]

i remember when it was the buzzword in q3 2020 too....

jameslk 4 hours ago | parent [-]

Yes it’s been a thing for a while

csomar 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The volume is down. What actually increased is the $$ value.

listenallyall 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Black Friday has become Cyber Monday as well. Everyone has a phone, nobody is waiting to log on to their PC at work to do some online shopping.

The holiday season on the whole is a much better indicator, not just one single day. And even then, spending needs to be checked against debt incurred.

garciasn 9 hours ago | parent [-]

Black Friday started weeks before the actual day in order to increase the spending. It’s not an apples to apples comparison to prior years.

listenallyall 9 hours ago | parent [-]

As a marketing term yes but the Bloomberg analysis is only looking at the actual single day following Thanksgiving.

philamonster 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I didn't buy shit on purpose this weekend, like every year and like most weekends. Some people do that. I wish more would.

jinushaun 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Don’t underestimate credit cards and consumerism.

intended 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The market is diverging with people who are in the upper echelons having money to spend and everyone else having nothing.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/economy/2025/11/25/us-e...

The K shaped economy.

Iwan-Zotow 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Pop growth of ca .5 pct and inflation delivered said record

alfalfasprout 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Not necessarily. Lots of explanations:

(1) People wait for when they perceive they'll get the best deals to do their shopping. (2) K-shaped economy (data is already bearing this out btw): Spending from the wealthy is driving consumption figures vs. the bulk of the population (3) Anxiety about rising prices cause people to purchase now vs. later. See for example RAM prices.

9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]
[deleted]
bitwize 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

One of the truly great things about American toxic individualism is that it need not be constrained by rationality; American capitalism finds ways around that. Need to Christmas shop for everyone in your family but don't have enough actual income? Simply go into massive credit card debt! You're probably pre-approved for several cards already; check for our flyer!