How high are the chances that as soon as China produces their own competitive TPU/GPU, they'll invade Taiwan in order to starve the West in regards to processing power, while at the same time getting an exclusive grip on the Taiwanese Fabs?

The US would destroy TSMC before letting China have it. China also views military conquest of Taiwan as less than ideal for a number of reasons, so I think right now it's seen as a potential defensive move in the face of American aggression.

China will invade Taiwan when they start losing, not when they're increasingly winning.

As long as "tomorrow" is a better day to invade Taiwan than today is, China will wait for tomorrow.

Seems low at the moment with the concept of G2 being floated as generic understanding of China's ascension to where Russia used to be effectively recreating bipolar semi cold war world order. Mind, I am not saying impossible, but there are reasons China would want to avoid this scenario ( probably one of the few things US would not tolerate and would likely retaliate ).

If they have the fabs but ASML doesn't send them their new machines, they will just end up in the same situation as now, just one generation later. If China wants to compete, they need to learn how to make the EUV light and mirrors.

The fabs would be destroyed in such a situation. The wesr would absolutely play that card in negotiations.

Not very. Those fabs are vulnerable things, shame if something happens to them. If China attacks, it would be for various other reasons and processors are only one of many considerations, no matter how improbable it might sound to an HN-er.

Highly unlikely. Despite the rampant anti-Chinese FUD that's so prevalent in the media (and, sadly, here on HN), China isn't really in the habit of invading other lands.