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| ▲ | KeplerBoy 9 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Isn't Taiwan also seismically active? They are reports of earthquakes affecting TSMC fabs in january 2025 and april 2024. Apparently these were not huge blows to their fabs, otherwise we would be talking about that day-in-day-out, but there's always a risk of that happening. | | |
| ▲ | ehnto 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Seems silly to be talking about this as if this is some kind of global consortium effort. Japan is building Japan at semi conductor industry, for the benefit of itself, of course it is located in Japan. | | |
| ▲ | KeplerBoy 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | Sure, Japan and Taiwan have no choice. They have to build on their seismically active islands or give up, which is not an option. |
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| ▲ | zamadatix 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Seems even more active, at least according to number of magnitude 6+ earthquakes since 1900 in the region https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=12.72608... |
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| ▲ | HarHarVeryFunny an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I guess it depends on what sort of monetary damage the typical Hokkaido earthquake would have on a fab - just result in a bad batch of chips perhaps, or also damage equipment? Obviously it's known that the region is very seismically active (159 earthquakes in Hokkaido so far this year!), but Japan are used to having to build to minimize earthquake damage. https://earthquaketrack.com/p/japan/hokkaido/recent | |
| ▲ | noduerme 9 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | That's not even a tough call if you had to lay odds on which would go offline first. Is "politically unstable" once again an acceptable euphemism for a small democracy being threatened with destruction by a totalitarian superpower? I thought we decided that was gauche. After, say, the German invasion of Czechoslovakia. | | |
| ▲ | RobotToaster 7 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | It's been in vogue since the American invasion of Vietnam | | |
| ▲ | noduerme 6 hours ago | parent [-] | | right, another reason China shouldn't invoke it to invade a free country. |
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| ▲ | elefanten 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Spot on. And the mistake of considering appeasement of said totalitarian superpower by “letting them have it” would be just as enormous. | | |
| ▲ | jabron 7 hours ago | parent [-] | | Comparing Nazi Germany and the PRC in any way is certainly an interesting choice, considering they're the one major power in the world that actually doesn't have a recent history of invading sovereign nations. | | |
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| ▲ | 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | [deleted] | |
| ▲ | Braxton1980 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I don't think China wants to destroy Taiwan. They want it to be a part of China. | | |
| ▲ | SllX 9 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Right now there is no non-violent path to achieving that because Taiwan intends to violently and militarily resist if it comes to that. Probably with the aid of America, although I’m a lot less certain of that than 5 year ago, and it’s looking like it’s a lot more likely to be with the aid of Japan as well. Also a success by the PRC would still result in the political destruction of the Republic of China and the subjugation of its people. | | |
| ▲ | noduerme 8 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | It should be noted that even if Taiwan's military resistance were negligible (or on the order of Tibet's), which it's not, that would not validate invading them and taking away their autonomy. For all intents and purposes, Taiwan is a self-governing nation, distinct from China precisely because it does not wish to be part of China. | | |
| ▲ | SllX 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Agreed. | |
| ▲ | MangoToupe 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Taiwan is not distinct from China. Both the ROC and the PRC view Taiwan as part of China (ironically, at the cost of the mass slaughter of taiwanese to in service of the chinese). | | |
| ▲ | decimalenough 7 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | "One China" is a political fig leaf that allows both sides to pretend the other country doesn't exist. Back in reality, the Republic of China (Taiwan) is fully independent from the People's Republic of China and fulfills every criteria of nationhood. | | | |
| ▲ | noduerme 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | From that perspective, the ROC is the legitimate government of Beijing. Facts on the ground appear otherwise, but facts on the ground also imply that Taiwan is not part of the PRC's version of China. | | |
| ▲ | MangoToupe 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | > From that perspective, the ROC is the legitimate government of Beijing. No. I don't understand how you came to this conclusion. Both governments claim legitimacy and only one has actual sovereignty. | | |
| ▲ | SllX 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | In practice, they are both sovereign over separate territories. |
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| ▲ | MangoToupe 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > Taiwan intends to violently and militarily resist if it comes to that I sincerely wonder if the people who live there agree. I sure as hell wouldn't put up much fight if china tried to invade my country; just the opposite. If anything I wonder if voluntary unification is on the table in today's climate | | |
| ▲ | n4r9 7 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > I sincerely wonder if the people who live there agree ... I wonder if voluntary unification is on the table One of the benefits of a free democratic society is that you can ask; and people vote according to their preferences. A recent study suggests ~13% of the public support unification with China: https://www.tpof.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/02/20250214-TPO... . Taiwan's politics are dominated by the KMT and DPP parties, both of which oppose unification. > I sure as hell wouldn't put up much fight if china tried to invade my country Perhaps you have an unusual opinion? | | |
| ▲ | noduerme 6 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | >> Perhaps you have an unusual opinion? That or a remarkably flexible sense of morality, coupled with a supine nature and a total lack of balls. | | |
| ▲ | MangoToupe 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | Let's not pretend it's ever moral to support the state you live under. You should support yourself and bide whatever state imposes itself on you. |
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| ▲ | MangoToupe 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | > Perhaps you have an unusual opinion? I live in the US. I think it's pretty obvious the PRC is more competent in every way than our own government is. And from what I've seen of the ROC parliament, it is also an embarrassment to their own people | | |
| ▲ | haspok 4 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > I live in the US. I think it's pretty obvious the PRC is more competent in every way than our own government is. Yes, and you wouldn't be able to express your political opinion (like you do here on HN or anywhere else) if you were living in China. People living in the US tend to overlook that minute detail. | |
| ▲ | mitthrowaway2 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I'm willing to concede that the CCP may be more competent than the US government, but the Taiwanese government (despite their antics in parliament) ranks alongside Singapore and Norway in my top three most competent governments in the world. That's purely my own subjective opinion of course but I see no reason for the Taiwanese people to be embarrassed. | |
| ▲ | n4r9 2 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | If you live in the US, supporting a Chinese invasion is definitely unusual. > the PRC is more competent in every way I guess it depends what you mean by competent. Dictatorships can be frightfully competent at certain things, but that doesn't make them a good place to be. We're talking about a country that is genociding its own Uyghur ethnic group, represses Tibetan culture, disappears its own elite athletes, and has a horrific LGBTI record. The US is far from perfect, but has nothing on China in terms of nastiness. That's not even touching the biggest problem of dictatorship, which is what happens when Dear Leader takes a fall. I doubt Xi has much more than a decade of leadership in him, and I worry for the Chinese populace when he goes. |
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| ▲ | noduerme 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Unification, in this case, means surrendering all rights to privacy, all rights to free expression, everything. The fact that you wouldn't fight being occupied and forced to be a slave doesn't speak highly of you, but I must admit it's an honest statement, and it's true that a lot of people might feel the same way. A majority of people everywhere are cowards, collaborators and sycophants. But they're along for the ride. Now, if your country is Burma, I don't blame you. | | |
| ▲ | MangoToupe 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | > rights to privacy, all rights to free expression, everything. Surely rights to more substantial things like healthcare make this quite an easy decision. Freedom to criticize a government doesn't matter if you can't force the government to actually give a shit about anything | | |
| ▲ | deltaburnt 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | Does Taiwan not have healthcare? Verbatim from Wikipedia: > According to the Numbeo Health Care Index in 2025, Taiwan has the best healthcare system in the world, scoring 86.5 out of 100,[6] a slight increase from 86 the previous year.[7] This marked the seventh consecutive year that Taiwan has ranked first in the Numbeo Health Care Index.[8] |
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| ▲ | somerandomqaguy 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Just my sense as an outsider, but a lot of interest in voluntary reunification got chilled after seeing China's actions in Hong Kong. A lot of it stems from lack of trust for the CCP to honor it's idea of a one county two systems form of governence. I don't know how much the Taiwanese would be willing to fight and die in a military invasion though. | |
| ▲ | Lio 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > I sure as hell wouldn't put up much fight if china tried to invade my country; just the opposite. Realy? What is your country and why would you prefer to live under a dictatorship? | |
| ▲ | breve 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | What is your country? China is always looking for more territory. If you've got water and mineral resources, all the better. | |
| ▲ | fragmede 7 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Fascinating! Why not? Why would you just lay down and let someone else rule over you? | | |
| ▲ | noduerme 6 hours ago | parent [-] | | In terms of survival strategies, letting someone else rule over you was sort of the OG Christian thing before they got control of the Roman Empire. It's kind of the default in most places. Declaring independence and actually succeeding at it and governing yourself is remarkably rare. The question isn't what you think is wise, or what you would do (because no one knows until they're in that situation). It's whether you feel you have anything worth preserving when you are conquered. Some people don't, evidently. Other people do. | | |
| ▲ | dmpk2k 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > Some people don't, evidently. Other people do. I like how this can be interpreted two ways, depending on whether you place loved ones above governance, or vice versa. | |
| ▲ | thworp 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | You simply cannot compare the experience of being conquered in a pre-modern society to being conquered by the PRC. Premodern States simply couldn't afford the level of oppression and exploitation that is possible today. They usually just replaced the upper layers of the old hierarchy, put some small garrisons in a few places and left most local elites in charge, often with their local armies. If there was an organized rebellion, there would usually be a a few skirmishes and then a re-negotiation of the terms. Today even Morocco could afford to turn Western Sahara into a territory with total surveillance, checkpoints everywhere and an impenetrable wall in the desert while slowly ethnically cleansing the native population. |
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| ▲ | YouAreMammon 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | The tankies are out in full force tonight. |
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| ▲ | aurareturn 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | because Taiwan intends to violently and militarily resist if it comes to that
I doubt Taiwan truly wants to do this. It has more to do with the US wanting to use Taiwan as a pawn to contain China's power. | | |
| ▲ | noduerme 7 hours ago | parent [-] | | If you lived in a country with local political representation and free elections, would you want your children to grow up in slavery to a dictatorship across the sea? Ask the Irish. | | |
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| ▲ | n4r9 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | China wants to destory Taiwan's democracy, as OP said quite correctly. | |
| ▲ | rockskon 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | By force. Because Taiwan doesn't want to be a part of Beijing's China. | | |
| ▲ | atwrk 7 hours ago | parent [-] | | Both points are not really true. For the China part: Yes, the "by force" part certainly exists as a position, in competition to the peaceful unification approach. It's important to keep in mind, though, that the confrontative position of the first Trump administration and afterwards the Biden administration significantly helped the "by force" faction. There was an interesting piece in Foreign Policy about that, a social scientist from the US was questioning Chinese students at an elite university on this very topic and thus had the chance to do a time series observing the attitude change following US actions. Secondly, in Taiwanese politics, Unification is actually a big topic and even has its own party, the New Party, advocating for it (plus the fringe CUPP). Not popular right now, but certainly existing - and evidently falsifying the notion that the all of "Taiwan doesn't want to be part of Beijing's China". | | |
| ▲ | rockskon 6 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | So according to your logic, it only counts if it's unanimous inside Taiwan to not be taken over by Beijing but it doesn't need to be unanimous for those who want reunification with China? | | |
| ▲ | atwrk 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | No. I pointed out that both the "by force" statement for China and the "Taiwan doesn't want" statement are so oversimplified that they became factually incorrect. The "logic" is your inference and neither stated nor implied by me. |
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| ▲ | noduerme 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | >> the confrontative position of the first Trump administration and afterwards the Biden administration significantly helped the "by force" faction This is the argument that you hit your wife because someone on the telephone made you angry. | | |
| ▲ | atwrk 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | This is about international relations. You won't get any insight into it if you reduce any point you don't like to argumentative metaphors. Even within the framework of (structural) realism so popular in contemporary US politics there's this well-known problem that the buildup of defense capabilities of party A looks like aggression to party B - and vice versa. See the seminal work Perception and Misperception in International Politics. Or the relations of Britain and Germany before WW1 and WW2. The FP article I mentioned, "Trump’s Trade War May Make Elite Young Chinese More Nationalistic" [1], illustrates the argument. You have actual empirical data, changing over time, after exposure to the "treatment". So at least a hint of causality. [1] https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/05/21/trump-tariffs-china-tra... |
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| ▲ | noduerme 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Come here, chicken. I don't want to hurt you, I just want to eat you! | |
| ▲ | fankt 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Become a part of a country with no freedom of speech? Yep, that's destruction. |
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| ▲ | inglor_cz 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | As a Czech who absolutely hates the Protectorate era, I can still see a good case to use somewhat neutral expressions like "politically unstable" if you want to discuss technical topics like supply chains without delving into the underlying politics. Declaring "I am a friend of democracies threatened by totalitarian countries" before every economic utterance looks as performative and ultimately counterproductive to me as all the "land acknowledgments" that infected the US academia. (Not coincidentally, those don't help actual Amerindians at all.) Yeah, Central Europe in the 1930s was politically unstable, no way around it. And it wasn't just question of Czechoslovakia vs. Germany either. Most countries had irredentist movements and/or land demands on their neighbours. | | |
| ▲ | noduerme 7 hours ago | parent [-] | | So, let's say the TSMC is the modern equivalent in "supply chain" terms as Czech guns made in Plzeň, like the Škoda 75mm cannon - wait, let's rewind. I'm not saying Czechoslovakia was politically stable in 1939. I'm saying that when your neighbor claims they need to rescue you from instability - like when America says they need to rescue a Latin American or Middle Eastern country from "political instability" when that country elects someone who doesn't want the country's resources owned and run by companies with imperialist backing - that is code for a green light to conquer them and take their resources. The same as it was for the Germans. The same as it is for China re: Taiwan and Russia re: all the former Soviet republics. Declaring your neighbor "politically unstable" and presenting yourself as its savior was the clearest way in the 20th Century to declare war without any casus belli. I'm sure you wouldn't like your country to be invaded again if the powers around it decide you can't manage your own affairs. [edit] I also spent about a year living in Prague and I love your country, Czechs are the best, and their sense of freedom is an immense relief from let's say other countries in the EU, so, I think it's amazing that you have maintained your independence from the enormous forces surrounding you and pulling in all directions. I think part of this is something I observed, that Czechs act like they are part of one small family. | | |
| ▲ | inglor_cz 7 hours ago | parent [-] | | Again, context matters and we are likely not talking in a "let us decide whom to invade" context. BTW "Declaring your neighbor "politically unstable" and presenting yourself as its savior was the clearest way in the 20th Century to declare war without any casus belli" is not really true, sometimes this happened, but wars have been declared for all sorts of putative reasons, like "our particular minority is being oppressed" or "the neighbouring government plotted against the life of our sovereign" or "they are infidels, go get them". Anyway I don't really see what you propose. Binning expressions because someone someday used them in bad faith, in the belief that this will stop future invasions from happening? This seems to be somewhat futile to me. Invasions aren't fundamentally caused by words. Words only work as a cloak and one cloak can be easily substituted by another, and it will, depending on the current state of politics in the invader and invadee country. Note that the Russians explained their invasion into Ukraine by calling them "fascists". Should the Western civilization drop the word forever because of that? | | |
| ▲ | noduerme 7 hours ago | parent [-] | | The cloak of words has always been needed, for some reason, to convince a population to make the sacrifices necessary to go to war. Yes, there have been other spoken reasons for invading a peaceful sovereign country. This does not change the fact that Russia is the belligerent party against Ukraine, or that China is the belligerent against a completely harmless and peaceful Taiwan. Taiwan's situation right now is very similar to Czechoslovakia's in 1938. There is no international treaty with teeth to protect it. There is every reason for China to create a rationale for invading it. The people there have a decent life and don't want to live under occupation. And the reasons for invasion look similar; taking over industrial capacity under the guise of saving people from their confused political state. | | |
| ▲ | Ray20 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > The cloak of words has always been needed, for some reason Needed? Probably not. There is just no reason not to use that cloak of words. | |
| ▲ | inglor_cz 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | It is indeed somewhat similar (though the sea is a better barrier + they don't have a major fifth column on their territory). And I would smell rat if it was a Chinese CCP official uttering the words about "political instability", but that would exactly be the change of context necessary. If a HW/SW engineer speaks about "political instability", they simply acknowledge that there is no way to tell what will happen in context of their own jobs. | | |
| ▲ | noduerme 7 hours ago | parent [-] | | Ahhahah. For SWEs I think the phrase is "undefined behavior". FWIW, my friend, I'm a Jew and I spent 5 years in France, Spain and Germany before coming to Prague. Czechia was the one place I felt welcome and safe in the EU. The noble history of the Czechs played a big role in that, but you could feel it every day in the way people treated each other. There is something incredible there about the people, the family, the place and the intelligence of Czechia. It is about keeping a small land for your family and people. I would say it's similar in many ways to Israel. Now someone will come and shoot me, heheh. But - there was a point. This is also why I defend Taiwan and I think everyone should. People should be free to get together to decide that they want to be part of something, not swallowed up by neighbors who despise their way of life. | | |
| ▲ | inglor_cz 6 hours ago | parent [-] | | Czechia is the most Jewish-friendly country in the EU, and will likely stay so. Our Jewish community used to be very vibrant and it is sorely missed. We should indeed defend Taiwan, but we (as "the entire EU") seem to be lukewarm even about defending Ukraine which is much closer to us and in a hot war. Some people just prefer sticking their head in the sand. Maybe the Jewish people are better at discerning building-up danger, because of their long history of persecution. | | |
| ▲ | noduerme 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | I hope it remains so. I felt an affinity from even before I stepped off the train from Munich. It's a funny story - my passport was examined by German police in the bar car of the train. My passport was not in order and they were radio calling to see whether to haul me back to Munich and detain me. I played for time as the border approached. The bartender was Czech, and he watched all this quietly. As soon as we stopped at the last town on the border, the police decided to tell me to have a nice trip, and he took me into the store room on the train, opened the window and poured shots and lit a cigarette for me as we crossed the border and said "fucking Germans. Welcome to Czechia... anything is possible!" And immediately I fell in love with the country. I would say, God bless that bartender on the train but almost everyone I met in the next year in Prague was equally kind and wonderful. I can't speak for all Jewish people, but yes we are raised reading history to understand the way that threats can build up over time, and the multiple masks that threats can wear. For me, personally, I see this as an affinity to all small, powerless but free people... Kurds, Taiwanese, Ukrainians, Tibetans, Yazidis... particularly those who don't evangelize but simply want to be left alone to prosper and live in peace with their own people. Czechs are similar to that as the most "western-facing Slavic people" and I grew up in America enthralled by Vaclav Havel as a beacon for individuals and every small nation wanting freedom. You are of course right that this history of persecution raises one's antennae and evokes horror at anything that seems to favor totalitarian modes of thinking. But the Czechs level of paranoia made me laugh sometimes, maybe because it was so similar. | | |
| ▲ | inglor_cz 4 hours ago | parent [-] | | "The bartender was Czech, and he watched all this quietly. As soon as we stopped at the last town on the border, the police decided to tell me to have a nice trip, and he took me into the store room on the train, opened the window and poured shots and lit a cigarette for me as we crossed the border and said "fucking Germans. Welcome to Czechia... anything is possible!"" I can almost hear him. That is basically the essence of Czechdom :) It is interesting how some aspects of culture are essentially the same and others diverge wildly once you cross the border. When it comes to Bier and Schnitzel and snowy Christmas, Czechs are almost indistinguishable from Bavarians. But in other aspects it is just as you saw it, two worlds apart. |
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| ▲ | brabel 7 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | China doesn’t want to destroy Taiwan , it wants to reunite with it like it did with other territories that had been taken by foreign powers, like happened to Hong Kong and Macau. Taiwan was occupied by Japan and then never went back to being China after the Japanese were defeated because the Chinese Party that was defeated in the Revolution fled to the Island and never accepted the PRC as legit government in China. Some of the more nationalist Taiwanese even consider themselves to be the legit government in exile of all China. You seem to not understand any of that when you compare China with Nazi Germany, really embarrassing. | | |
| ▲ | phantasmish 6 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | There’s definitely something embarrassing going on, and it starts but does not end with confusing destruction of a state with destruction of… I’m not even sure what you had in mind. The land? The infrastructure? Taiwan’s democracy is absolutely threatened with destruction by a totalitarian superpower, that wasn’t in any way incorrect or misleading, and that’s how the GP post phrased it. Its state is threatened with destruction. That’s entirely accurate. | | | |
| ▲ | oblio 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | What happens is Taiwan opposes the union? You know, through a democratic vote? The standard authoritarian playbook would require moving to step two, which we saw in action a few years ago on the other side of Eurasia: https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/2023/may/18/stark-b... |
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