| ▲ | rozap 6 hours ago | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Realistically I think there are two outcomes: AGI succeeds and there are mass layoffs, money is concentrated further in the hands of those who own compute. OR AI bubble pops and there are mass layoffs, with bailouts going to the largest players to prevent a larger collapse, which drives inflation and further marginalizes asset-less people. I honestly don't see a third option unless there is government intervention, which seems extremely far fetched given it's owned by the group of people who would benefit from either scenario presented above. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▲ | throwacct 6 hours ago | parent | next [-] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Third option: no bailouts of any type. Don't socialize losses. The board resets itself again, and let entrepreneurs, small businesses flourish again. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▲ | JoshTriplett 3 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
> with bailouts going to the largest players > I honestly don't see a third option unless there is government intervention Bailouts are government intervention. The third option is an absence of government intervention, at least at the business level. By all means intervene in the form of support for impacted individuals, e.g. making sure people have food on the table. Stop intervening to save businesses that fail. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▲ | johnnyanmac 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
It's slim but the 3rd option is the administration falling apart Nixon-style. Be it by death, conviction, or resignation. The slimmer part is any potential successors suddenly responding to the people, but maybe that happens in congress in 2027. Still up in the air. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▲ | goalieca 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Bailouts for chip fabicration and nothing else. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| ▲ | jimbokun 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
If the AI bubble pops it's just another bubble like the many ones that have occurred throughout history and the market eventually recovers. In the AGI Succeeds scenario, the situation is unprecedented and it's not clear how it ever gets better. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| ▲ | lemoncookiechip 3 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Does the USA even have enough money to rescue the tech giants at this point? We could be talking multiple trillion dollars at worst. And the AI only companies like OpenAI and Anthropic would be the most vulnerable in comparison to say Google or Microsoft, because they have no fallback and no sustainability without investor money. And Nvidia would be left in a weird place where the vast majority of their profits are coming from AI cards and demand would potentially dry up entirely. | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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