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rule2025 16 hours ago

Lithium iron phosphate batteries are very practical. Chinese BYD has developed blade batteries using this type of battery and has become the global sales leader in new energy vehicles. However, this battery faces range limitations and the issue of how to improve charging speed. Solid-state batteries should be the next big thing, but mass production may not be feasible yet. At least, it might take 3 more years for commercialization, and that's still an optimistic prediction.

dzhiurgis 15 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> Lithium iron phosphate batteries are very practical

Unless you want to charge in negative temperatures

> However, this battery faces range limitations

Yes they are less dense but plentiful for typical passenger car (and not so much for full sized trucks or even "mid-sized" US SUVs).

> the issue of how to improve charging speed

I think CATL demonstrated 1MW charging on these already. Definitely shipping 500kW charging (tho best measure is still average km/hr).

> Solid-state batteries should be the next big thing

Sodium will (great cold weather performance and even better charge rates), but it's less (vol) dense and prices won't reach LFPs for another 10-15 years (unless you believe hype, not actual analysts).

happosai 13 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> Unless you want to charge in negative temperatures

LFP charging in cold has pretty much been solved by adding a heater to battery pack.

> (Sodium-ion) prices won't reach LFPs for another 10-15 years (unless you believe hype, not actual analysts).

Given CATL is scaling sodium-ion production to to GWh scale next year, it sounds like they are betting for a much shorter timeframe.

dzhiurgis 10 hours ago | parent | next [-]

> LFP charging in cold has pretty much been solved by adding a heater to battery pack.

That's a hack, not a solution.

> Given CATL is scaling sodium-ion production to to GWh scale next year, it sounds like they are betting for a much shorter timeframe.

Wanna bet? LFP is ~1,000 GWh scale right now. GWh scale is 0.1%.

apelapan 10 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I pulled into a Supercharger with my LFP-battery EV last winter. The temperature outside was -15C and I had not set the navigator so there was no pre-warming activated.

By the time I had finished my coffe, SoC had gone from 30-ish to 90-ish percent.

LFP tech anno 2023 is perfectly good enough for road tripping in large cars in severe winter conditions. For almost everyone.

dzhiurgis 7 hours ago | parent [-]

So your battery was preheated. I once did the same with approx 0C battery temperature and whole ordeal took at least 2x longer. Yes there was farmers market in front of charge station so I had a good time with kiddo. That’s not the point.

Let’s not pretend better batteries shouldn’t exist.

ViewTrick1002 5 hours ago | parent [-]

Or just press the button to manually preheat the battery?

thecopy 10 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

>That's a hack, not a solution.

Why do you say that? It sounds like a simple solution to me.

dzhiurgis 7 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Leave your car with 5% SOC overnight and then try to find energy in morning to preheat battery. People have painted into corner themselves before. It’s perfectly adequate for my very mild climate and even then I get limited regen about 6 morning months per year.

nullstyle 3 hours ago | parent [-]

This is the EV equivalent of riding your old motorcycle with the reserve valve open the entire time.

You are driving a giant killing machine around... it isn't too much to ask that you have some foresight to avoid the situation you describe.

throwaway81523 10 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

It takes hours to heat a cold large pack til it's warm enough to charge. That's a drawback.

wood_spirit 9 hours ago | parent [-]

All the EV owners in Scandinavia don’t have practical problems charging in winter at will.

ponector 8 hours ago | parent [-]

Also Scandinavia is not that cold. Their winters are quite warm, actually.

bickfordb 2 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

After market electric engine heaters and remote starters are typical for ICE vehicles in cold climates (e.g. Alaska). Not sure why you consider this to be a hack for EVs if its builtin to the battery pack design.

Cthulhu_ 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Isn't starting a fire under your engine to get it to start a hack too? I mean they could add a heater to the engine. Wait.

homebrewer 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Does the heater handle real winters, like they have in Alaska, Mongolia, and parts of Russia north of it? Or just European and American "winters" where -20°C is considered hardcore? Gasoline powered engines handle this well, and you can warm them up with a gasoline torch if they stay outside for too long and refuse to start. The cold does not destroy them.

jeroenhd 6 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I don't see why a built-in heater is worse than aiming a torch at a car to get it to start. Seems like a major oversight for gasoline cars.

Also, a tiny fraction of the population will ever need to start their cars in Alaska, Mongolia, and Northern Russia. The small city worth of people living in these insane environments can stick to their wood-fueled diesel cars while the rest of the world just uses normal vehicles.

throw0101a 5 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> Does the heater handle real winters, like they have in Alaska, Mongolia, and parts of Russia north of it? Or just European and American "winters" where -20°C is considered hardcore?

It handles "real winters" [1] where large portions of the human population live. [2][3][4]

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/No_true_Scotsman

[2] https://www.bbc.co.uk/staticarchive/e4ff248622e19fa303d72e25...

[3] https://engaging-data.com/population-latitude-longitude/

[4] https://luminocity3d.org/WorldPopDen/

infecto 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Alaska, Mongolia and Russia are extreme edge cases that I don’t believe hold much weight in an argument. It’s like those arguments where folks try to attack solar or wind, “solar won’t work on northern Alaskan winter”. Ok great that’s such a small slice of the population that it’s ok.

floatrock 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Are you a car ad where you're selling the most extreme off-road experience for the person who just wants to go to the grocery store?

Come on man. If you're in an extreme environment, get the tool appropriate for that environment. People in mountain environments tend to have 4WD or AWD cars because it's appropriate. Doesn't mean a non-AWD car is useless.

If you live in the extreme 5%, get something that works there. If you're in the rest of the 95%, other solutions work fine.

IshKebab 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Those are quite niche environments. The success of LFP won't hinge on whether it works below -20C, obviously.

maxerickson 6 hours ago | parent [-]

Most of the US Midwest sees -20 C for at least a brief period each winter. Having reduced functionality at those temps would be pretty inconvenient for the many car dependent people that live in the region.

jeroenhd 6 hours ago | parent | next [-]

-20C is feasible. Charging will take a bit longer because the heater will need to work a bit longer, but as long as the batteries can reach about freezing temperature, you're good.

Charging being a couple minutes slower a few weeks a year is a minor convenience. If you have a house with a garage, like many people in the US Midwest, I doubt it even poses a problem even on the worst days. It's more in the winter-long -35C areas that (purpose-built) combustion engines have obvious benefits.

Cold climates suffer more from cold batteries having reduced range, but with modern battery ranges the problem isn't even that extreme anymore.

dlisboa 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Inconvenient for those people. About 8 billion other people don’t live in that type of weather.

maxerickson 6 hours ago | parent [-]

They also mostly can't afford $25,000 cars.

ben_w 3 hours ago | parent [-]

About half of the world is within 3,300 km of a village in Burma, close to the Chinese border and not too far from Laos and Thailand.

China and India both have EVs much cheaper than we get in the EU. Like, "<€10k new" cheap.

What I do wonder about is how much of Africa can get EVs; I've only been once, to Nairobi over a decade ago, so take it with a pinch of anecdote-flavoured salt when I say that what I saw there was a lot of 20-30 year old vehicles.

cogman10 4 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

It entirely depends on the original range of the car.

Realistically you are looking at trimming 20->30% of the range. If you drive 20 miles a day but have a total range of 200 miles, then it's really not inconvenient. It only becomes inconvenient if you need to travel long distances.

lazide 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

You can discharge the battery to power the heaters, at significant cost in energy. The temperature becomes a serious problem when charging (will physically destroy the battery through dentrite formation!), and under very high power draws (battery can’t keep up chemically).

It can be solved, but at a cost, and makes the tech much more dangerous - you could end up in a situation where you freeze to death somewhere more easily in the climates it is a problem.

It’s similar reasons why diesel isn’t a great idea in Alaska and the like too, and people tend towards gasoline even in situations where it is more costly and less efficient (like industrial trucks). It can be mitigated with chemical additives (‘heat’), tank and block heaters, etc. but has similar risks.

c2h5oh 12 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The small handful of sodium batteries that are currently available retail all seem to have rather bad roundtrip efficiency compared to LFP and voltage drop starting at a high state of charge.

Also LFP prices dropped enough that shipping cost from China became a significant part of the price. This will be even more of a factor should the less energy dense sodium batteries ever reach the promised $30/kWh.

PaulKeeble 11 hours ago | parent | next [-]

One thing I hadn't groked about Sodium Ion was the enormous Voltage range leads to a bit of an issue when it comes to current. You have a 4x voltage from top to bottom of the battery and this also means your current is 4x as well for the same power output. This becomes a bit of an issue and it is part of the efficiency equation, not just externally to the battery where wires have to be much larger than LFP or LI but internally due to internal resistance.

dzhiurgis 10 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Sodium gravimetric density is same. Volumetric is worse. Shipping containers generally cost by volume, but given how dense batteries are I suspect this won't matter.

c2h5oh 6 hours ago | parent [-]

I'd agree if you could stick them in the containers discharged, but you can't. This means that even safer chemistry like sodium battery is still hazardous cargo.

vardump 11 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> Unless you want to charge in negative temperatures

I do all of my charging way above 0K. :-P

sokka_h2otribe 14 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

If it's suitable for sedans it's actually more suitable for SUVs. SUVs require less power per cubic feet of space. So there is more space available for them, even if they take more energy overall

vincnetas 10 hours ago | parent | next [-]

such strange unit of measurement. cubic feet of space. especially for civilian transport when most of the time no one uses that space. i mean most of the time its one person per car without any baggage. what's important is weight of the car. and i bet suv is heavier than sedans.

bluGill 3 hours ago | parent [-]

There are multiple variables, claiming weight is important is wrong.

Volume is important because the more volume the more space there is for batteries.

Aerodynamics is important because at common highway speeds this is the dominate energy cost. This is a factor that goes up by the square of speed, so at low speeds it doesn't matter but at high speeds it does.

Weight is least important because it has a linear change and is a small factor in efficiency.

There are real safety concerns with SUVs, but their larger size means there is more space for batteries and so they can overall go farther then a Sedan in normal driving despite the other costs.

thebruce87m 13 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

There are variants of the Model Y with LFP batteries.

dzhiurgis 10 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I've tried to express SUV's as in American SUVs - full sized 7 seat monstrosity. Most EV SUVs right now are crossovers, i.e. Model Y. Cybertruck is closest approximation and it uses nearly 2x more power than Model Y. Even with ~most advanced batteries people still think Cybertruck's range is way too little whereas I'm pretty certain majority of Model Y's sold are LFPs.

silon42 5 hours ago | parent [-]

For me in Europe the Y is a huge monstrosity... I'd want something about 16 inches shorter to get to normal crossover size.

pottertheotter 13 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

What? How does an SUV require less power per cf than a sedan? I would think that aero alone would always be worse for an SUV, making sedans more efficient.

AngryData 12 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I think he means less power per total overall volume of the vehicle. SUVs are certainly less efficient per mile, but their power requirements don't scale linearly with volume so you have a lot more "extra" room to place batteries, even if it is still entirely within the frame. So you can get away with less space efficient batteries.

murderfs 11 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Drag scales by frontal area (and the coefficient of drag tends to actually be lower on longer objects), so as long as the SUV is longer than a sedan, it'll tend to have less aerodynamic drag proportionally (rolling resistance scales with weight, though, so you still have to pay that cost).

Gibbon1 10 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

An observation is the amount of power needed is proportional to some log of size and weight.

cameldrv 13 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I think CATL is promoting a hybrid pack of LFP and Sodium that would give you the cheapness and density of LFP, but with maybe 30% Sodium that you could use for a quick partial charge, and could also be used when the car is cold-soaked. Once you drive for a while, the whole pack gets warmed up and you can use the LFP.

juliusceasar 11 hours ago | parent [-]

Using lfp at low temp is not an issue. Charging is the problem.

vardump 11 hours ago | parent [-]

> Charging is the problem.

Which also occurs while driving, whenever you're decelerating.

_aavaa_ 14 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> Unless you want to charge in negative temperatures

Doesn’t the thermal management system of the battery packs handle this?

butvacuum 12 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Yes, the largest issue is that they heating isn't enabled unless it's charging or 'knows' it will be soon.

Ps: the heating is increasingly heat pump based instead of resistive.

dzhiurgis 10 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

It does, but it costs is complex, requires power and time.

It's noticeable even in climates like NZ.

There are coldgating stories about LFP. Some even reduce output and very low SOC and temperature, so you drive 60km/h in highway.

Sodium is vastly superior here and CATL is not going to be giving it away for free.

adgjlsfhk1 14 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I think it is fairly likely that sodium catches LFP in the ~5 year timeframe since sodium has a lot more promise for grid scale storage since it has no expensive materials.

sroussey 11 hours ago | parent | next [-]

When are the aluminum batteries coming?

dzhiurgis 10 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

It still does have expensive materials (cheaper form of graphite), but a little bit less of it, namely lithium and there's something else I can't remember.

infecto 4 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I am not sure honestly about the negative temperature. Sure it can be a problem in extreme colds but most of the world does not live in those climates.

lazide 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

The issue I’ve heard with sodium-ion is that the voltage curves make the power electronics much more expensive for a given efficiency/power level.

[https://www.eevblog.com/forum/projects/sodium-ion-battery-ev...]

Lithium’s curve is nearly flat, which allows for a pretty easy consistent power production (albeit nearly impossible to tell state of charge!) since you only need to target a pretty narrow voltage band.

Overall, that means sodium-ion has to be even cheaper to be competitive, and it makes even less sense in areas where power density matters like electric cars, as you’ll end up with far less power and/or needing much heavier motors and more expensive electronics to compensate when on the lower end of charge.

I don’t want to think of what it would cost to do a 100kw buck-boost power supply that can handle +- 25% (or more!) voltage differences. In reality, I don’t think anyone would try.

idiotsecant 15 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Solid state batteries and fusion power, always 3 years away.

AngryData 12 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I wouldn't equate solid state batteries with fusion power. Solid state batteries do exist and work well, they are just very expensive. Meanwhile fusion power is still entirely within the experimental stage and there are no fusion plant prototypes that can produce power at any price.

seanmcdirmid 14 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

It’s always 20 years away until it isn’t. Self driving cars are…I guess they are here already. AGI? Well, we have to move the goal post on that constantly.

s0rce 14 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Self driving cars have had many incremental improvements. I think fusion power is actually making progress, not clear about solid state batteries. Seems more companies closing than making solid progress.

seanmcdirmid 13 hours ago | parent [-]

Fusion is one of those things that will probably not be done in my lifetime (the hype cycle on that has been forever, remember cold fusion from U of Utah?). I'm much more optimistic about solid state batteries.

butvacuum 12 hours ago | parent [-]

The obvious fraud from the 90s?

But, the real issue seems to be that fusion has a large nuclear waste problem. Ironically, probably more so than fission reactors. It can be fixed, but probably not in first gen reactors. However there are companies pushing designs that solve it already

stevage 14 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

>Self driving cars are…I guess they are here already.

They may be where you are, but they aren't generally here.

seanmcdirmid 13 hours ago | parent [-]

If by here I meant planet Earth I think it is well qualified. Yes, they aren't using self driving car tech for ice trucking during winter down from Purdhoe Bay yet (another form of goal post moving), but the biggest challenges have already been solved and only capital and societal barriers remain.

rootusrootus 12 hours ago | parent [-]

I think it depends on what you mean by big challenges. City driving is maybe the easiest 80% of driving. There’s a long tail of odd challenges you run into in less controlled environments, and I’d call that the biggest challenge.

sroussey 11 hours ago | parent | next [-]

I think city driving is the worst — people popping out from nowhere, roads that shouldn’t be but are because they have always been. Suburban and highways seem easiest.

In the hills of LA you have sharp blind corners where people have installed public fisheye mirrors to help you see around, then you have crazy people in Hollywood throwing furniture in front of your car, and non-stop traffic and people passing on the wrong side of the road between blocks even when there is a median, school kids and crossing guards, emergency vehicles trying to through and people doing otherwise illegal things to help get out of the way…

bartvk 10 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I'm an avoid motorcyclist and have followed additional safety courses. These placed 90% of all accidents in cities. What do you mean by city driving being the easiest?

danaris 6 hours ago | parent | next [-]

In a city, you'll never have to worry about the "road" you're supposed to follow being a dirt track that barely looks different than the muddy fields on either side.

In a city (especially in SoCal and the American Southwest, which is, AIUI, where all the self-driving cars are today), you can be nearly certain that the various mapping companies have accurately plotted the roads and destinations, and if you're trying to get to a popular Finger Lakes winery, you won't be directed down a limited-use seasonal road that's entirely covered in ice.

In a city, you can be pretty well guaranteed that there are speed limit signs anywhere the speed limit actually changes.

Just off the top of my head, as someone who's lived 40 years in the rural Northeast.

7 hours ago | parent | prev [-]
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seanmcdirmid 11 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Wouldn’t ice trucking be in that long tail? I mean, ya, there are lot of niche cases that companies like Waymo haven’t worked on yet, but…the money is in the cities so that’s where they start. Interstate trucking might come next, ice trucking might be one of the last use cases covered.

Anyways we’ve gone from “this won’t happen in our lifetime!” to “it doesn’t handle X niche use case yet.”

sroussey 11 hours ago | parent [-]

There are self driving trucking companies.

ravedave5 an hour ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Add Affordable at the start of that sentence and it's accurate.

Animats 14 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Solid state batteries seem to work, but the price of prototypes is very high. Samsung says they will soon be shipping earbuds and watches with solid state batteries, but the cost is too high even for phones. Xaomi showed an $800 phone battery. Mercedes has one prototype car with solid state batteries. Honda has one motorcycle. EHang has one flying car. Nobody seems to be past one-off demos.

10 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]
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_fizz_buzz_ 12 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Solid state batteries and fusion might in the end suffer from a similar economical problem. That they turn out to simply be too expensive.

kopirgan 13 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Does look as if ssb are close.. Esp Japanese ones.

epistasis 12 hours ago | parent [-]

If your source on that is a Toyota press release, take it with a huge grain of (lithium) salt.

Toyota has been saying similar things for a very long time. But they continue to make extremely poor bets, except for their hybrids. There's something really odd about their management culture that prevents them from finding the common and easy path of lithium ion batteries that everybody has already taken.

kopirgan 9 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Yes it was that plus iirc another by Nissan as well. One site reported Chinese are walking back on some of the more optimistic claims and now it's 2030+ not next 2 years. By then I guess Na ones will be old news.

I too felt Japs were taking EV quite casually pushing all others but I wouldn't underestimate their ability to move once they decide that's what it is. They have the same concept as China, move as one nation but much higher tech depth

Btw anyone ever heard of those fuel cell ones? Toshiba hyped it like you slot in a fuel cartridge and have months of use etc.

rootusrootus 12 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

Toyota does have a conventional BEV, so they can do it if they want. They just don’t seem to be enthusiastic about it.

scheme271 10 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Toyota's CEO and upper management seemed to be oddly fixated on hydrogen powered cars for a very long time. I think it was just in the last 2-3 years where they finally gave up and started looking at BEVs.

kopirgan 9 hours ago | parent [-]

If it's not like those rare earth ( or watch movement saga with Swatch) that China will simply refuse to supply to other OEM, old car makers like Ford, Toyota with brand image and solid engg in rest of car making can just buy. Maybe that's their thinking?

Bonus if there's leap frog tech that obsolete all the CATL investments..

epistasis an hour ago | parent [-]

Those false supply chain concerns really only work within the right wing US political milieu. "Rare earth" with batteries really only works with the Republican set of propaganda.

I'm sure Toyota management has their own set of false beliefs about supply concerns, or perhaps about competitive edges, or perhaps about biases towards fluid fuels.

7 hours ago | parent | prev [-]
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