I agree that it's very difficult to fully understand what his real positions are, and interestingly I think he clearly wants that to be the case. Peter Thiel is interested in and has actually written extensively about Straussianism which is an intellectual movement obsessed with analyzing esoteric meanings in philosophical literature.

He could be selling NVIDIA to buy OpenAI like SoftBank just did. It might not be a bubble exist but a re-positioning.

Diamond hands is more of a meme token punter term. Thiel is running a hedge fund and has a responsibility to get good returns for his investors. Buying underpriced stocks and selling overpriced is a normal thing to do.

Yeah everyone wants a conspiracy when the obvious signal is that he already made insane amounts of money off the stock spiking so high and he wants to diversify it on other stuff instead of continuing to gamble on a big one. Which is also what the article says he is doing.

It doesn't take a genius to work out somebody who bought low might want to sell high.

The newsworthy aspect to this is that the AI hype cycle is saying that right now, today, Nvidia is cheap. If AI is going to capture the entire economy, but it relies on Nvidia hardware, the current valuation is pennies on the dollar of what it will be one day.

Except, you know, that's all a lie. And Thiel peddled it for a while, and is friends with Musk, and connected to many others in the hype cycle besides, and now he's showing his hand that he knows its a lie.

If there is a bubble then the hyperscalers with dominant market shares and big cashflows are most likely to survive if it bursts. Google, MSFT and Amazon. Oracle are on very shaky ground. Their bonds are selling at a discount to par, even though interest rates are dropping, and their debt to equity ratio is nearing 400%. AI is an existential bet for them, but not so much for the others.

didn't softbank sell only to invest more into other ai investments?

still a more efficient algo would be better run on gigawatts of compute

interesting. For me charts and CSS are broken though, so I couldn't really see figures

MSFT and AAPL seem like better ways to diversify your money away from chips, while keeping it in technology.

Assuming he is correct (I think he is) and Nvidia goes down sharply, it will take AMD, Intel etc. with it. Usually the equipment makers and fabs go down with them, many times even at a higher percentage.

So this 'portfolio' is <200M on a net worth of 16B? This is like someone worth 1M selling $600 worth of stock.

I noticed the article steered around that figure even though it would make sense to spell it out but that wouldn't bolster their gasping thesis.

Ya Im shocked he continues to hold Tesla…

It'll come from the other bubble in financial markets, Private Credit. There have been quite a few bankruptcies and problems emerging there, and they're stepping up to be major funders for the AI capex boom.

Have any juicy articles to back up your unsubstantiated claim?

I always thought the opposite was true like whales breaking up orders for various reasons like not moving the market too much over things like portfolio adjustments, secrecy, etc?

Or maybe he just found out he suffers from some incurable disorder and now needs the money to build research centers to find a cure, because AI won't help obviously.

"Someone like this" leaves a ton to the reader's imagination.

Maybe this?

Finance is the gun. Politics is to know when to pull the trigger!

Interesting. Do you have any examples?

So not 4d chess ?

Warren Buffett is buying Alphabet out of neceessity - he already sold most of what he could sell and has way too much cash on hand - he just need to buy 'something' - Alphabet seems like the least overvalued big stock out there.

Always also calmly analyse what is the upside left. Especially if the stock has such huge valuation like Nvidia. My guess is probably not at this point.

Yes, you should. Every grift needs bagholders.

This crowd is heavily invested/works in tech, nobody wants to admit they are wrong or that their wealth is an illusion.

He is diversifying away from a pure AI play. The amount of diversification is relatively low, so he probably still believes in AI, just feels it is slightly overhyped.

Personally I agree it’s too small of a move, but different people have different beliefs and different tolerance for risk.

Even if you reduce computing requirements for inference by 99.999% there is still enough demand to saturate all high end cards for decades.

Palantir is looking to buy the American Red Cross, for... other reasons.

Thiel is worth 25 Bn according to some sources, 16 Bn according the article.

In this case surely there will be an AI correction before Thiel runs out of money.

Cash is just another asset class, and since becoming a pure fiat it’s never been a good one: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CPIAUCSL

Given the fiscal dominance we’re in now that pretty much guarantees higher rates of inflation in the future, I think there’s much better places to place your money if you want to diversify. At least cash equivalents would be better

How are you so sure it is a bubble?

Is there an opposite to the halo effect? Stupidity in one area doesn't mean they're stupid in another

Judge him based on his investing skill here

I expect continued economic performance from a guy who went from nothing to... $25B was the latest number I heard.

Empirically, I don't think Christians do worse investments than us atheists, so rationally speaking I don't think it's much of a factor.

He's scarily sane. I am not joking when I say he invented the anti-christ thing as a way to entrench the billionaire class. He's basically saying the anti-christ will be somebody who want to solve the world's problems through collective action. So collective action is bad. We are in such an unbalanced world, that that is the best argument he can come up with for why we should allow such wealth inequality in society.

https://paulgraham.com/disagree.html

Then how about SoftBank[1]... are they irrational? Or Michael Burry[2] who shorted Nvidia and Palantir before concluding the market is once against being irrational and selling his positions and closing his hedge fund... is he irrational?

The people in a position to know are telling you something: This is a Bubble, and they're getting the hell out while they're ahead. You should do the same.

--

[1] https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/11/softbank-sells-its-entire-st...

[2] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-shot-michael-burrys-ai-14...

When it comes to his Antichrist schtick I say "takes one to know one".

Also, Thiel seems like the sort of guy with the money and connections to pop the AI bubble whenever he believes it'd be advantageous, whether that is the product of a rational mind seems to be beside the point.

I mean if I were a Christian I wouldn’t be surprised that the anti Christ is among us. The only difficulty is to pick which one of them is.

But I’m an atheist so I don’t care about it.

Not a fan of Palantir or Level3 (L3?) Systems myself--talk about companies ushering in a police state!

The best explaination is that Thiel, Softbank and Huang are selling before a risky Nvidia earnings release that could result in an indication that the AI boom is going to collapse.

The news is that a whale is dumping, not that the whale is making a rational decision. We all know the market isn't rational in the short term, merely efficient in the long term. And we all suspect (as does Thiel!) that NVDA is unsustainably priced.

So if the whale is dumping, maybe smaller investors will dump too. Maybe we should too.

It's so bizarre how a gay billionaire helping build artificial intelligence, owning a surveillance empire, and basically trying to put the mark of the beast on everyone is also yelling about the antichrist. If you were a bible-believing Christian, you'd think he was a top 5 candidate.

Mentioning the antichrist would probably move him up to at least top 3. Isn't the antichrist supposed to pretend he's fighting the antichrist in modern popular Pentacostal/Charismatic eschatology?

No he doesn’t believe that the literal biblical Antichrist is walking amongst us. Uncharitable take

Tell me why quantum mechanics stops at SU(3) in SU(3) x SU(2) x U(1) symmetry group.

No need to guess, the article literally states where the money went:

> That’s why Thiel rotated into Microsoft and Apple, tech giants with more diversified revenue streams, cloud scale, devices, and software.

Microsoft and Apple? per article. Not very mind-blowing