Startup investing and stock market investment records are probably not particularly well correlated. Certainly timing the market is difficult for everyone.

well, fittingly, there’s the devil horns effect

> I expect continued economic performance from a guy who went from nothing to... $25B

I would expect a return to the mean

How can you tell he’s a Christian? I only know him by his works.

> Empirically, I don't think Christians do worse investments than us atheists, so rationally speaking I don't think it's much of a factor.

Hm, why not? Like obviously it would be hard to do a study because you can't just control by wealth. But if you control by the level of education and stop at that I'm almost certain christians would lose.

[dead]

"From nothing" is a fairly suspect claim, but your overall point is a good one

Yeah it's funny when you read his antichrist ramblings, it's essentially the antichrist will come in the form of a leader arguing for wealth redistribution via collective action. This is what instills sheer terror in the billionaire class.

I'm pretty sure the antichrist is that sports betting guy, Dave Portnoy? The good news is that he's low key, it's kind of a more casual antichrist this time around getting everyone addicted to gambling.

Burry was underwater on that trade though and likely did it to avoid some paperwork revealing positions. He folded because he can't time it, if he was confident he was right he wouldn't have folded and we'd have another movie about him.

Softbank sold all of Nvidia in 2019. Look how that turned out for them.

> SoftBank’s Vision Fund was an early backer of Nvidia, reportedly amassing a $4 billion stake in 2017 before selling all of its holdings in January 2019. Despite its latest sale, SoftBank’s business interests remain heavily intertwined with Nvidia’s.

Further, ″[SoftBank] made a point of saying that it wasn’t any view on NVIDIA. ... At the end of the day, they are using the money to invest in other AI related companies,” he said.

Make of that what you will, but asking "are they irrational?" needs to answer with more than just "Softbank sold all of Nvidia again."

Both of these come from the link you provided.

I don't think it's a bubble.

Thiel sold Palantir which is ridiculously overrated ( 1740.10 pe ).

Additionally, NVIDIA is going to get some competition for AMD. Or even Broadcom ( see TPU's from Alphabet)

He bought Microsoft, which has both AMD and NVIDIA for inference.

His sales aren't about selling AI. Just some bets cashing out.

Microsoft, Amazon, ... All can't build infrastructure quickly enough and they even admit in quarterly earnings that it's a bottleneck for now.

And they all grew a lot ( 20-40% )

Every accusation is a confession.

> seems like the sort of guy with the money and connections to pop the AI bubble

…and has been known to cause bank runs

If you believe in this sort of thing i think the signs are there https://www.benjaminlcorey.com/could-american-evangelicals-s...

As a rational atheist living on a shared resource in which a very small group have control over most of the assets, shouldn't it concern you if they leverage talk about an antichrist to edge out the masses even more?

The concern is less about what others announce as a belief, more about future access to essentials.

He maybe wouldn’t commit that it is currently, but he’d absolutely commit to the idea that the literal biblical Antichrist will exist and will walk among us, and might be already.

This is exactly the same level as insane as thinking the Antichrist actually does walk among us today.

Pretty sure he said exactly that. If you think the quote is taken out of context feel free to add that here.

I mean, sometimes if it look like a crazy person and quacks like a crazy person, it’s a crazy person.

Not everything is some great 4d chess conspiracy; sometimes people just believe completely irrational stuff.