What is AGI in your mind? Let's take someone who once upon a time was responsible for grading papers. As far as that person is concerned, AGI has arrived for their profession (it arrived nearly two years ago for them). You'll never be better than something that has read every book ever and can write better than you. AGI will come in tranches. Are you really going to hire that developer because you need extra manpower to stand up test coverage? No, so as far as that developer is concerned, AGI has arrived for that part of their professional career.

The bet is not that there will be this one seminal moment of AGI where all the investment will make sense. The bet is that it has already showed up if you look for specific things and will continue to do so. I wouldn't bet against the idea that LLMs will introduce itself to all jobs, one at a time. Reddit moderators, for example, will meet AGI (as far as they know, their entire world being moderating) sooner than say, I don't know, a Radiologist.

The universe of people getting paid to make CRUD apps is over. Many here will be introduced to AGI faster and sooner. Then it could be phone customer support representatives. It could show up for the face-to-face worker who is now replaced by a screen that can talk to customers (which already arrived yesterday, it's here). It'll appear erratic and not cohesive, unless you zoom out and see the contagion.

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Rome needed to recognize that the Barbarian hordes had arrived. Pay attention to all the places the invasion has landed. You can pretend like the Vandals are not in your town for a little bit, sure, but eventually they will be knocking on many doors (most likely all doors). We're in a time period of RADICAL transformation. There is no half-assing this conviction. Practicality will not serve us here.

> Are you really going to hire that developer because you need extra manpower to stand up test coverage? No, so as far as that developer is concerned, AGI has arrived for that part of their professional career.

That is exactly what you need in order to make AI useful. Even a baby needs to cry to signal its needs to parents, which are like ASI to it. AI working on a task lacks in 3 domains: start, middle and finish.

AI cannot create its own needs, they belong to the context where it is used. After we set AI to work, it cannot predict the outcomes of its actions unless they pass through your context and return as feedback. In the end, all benefits accumulate in the same context. Not to mention costs and risks - they belong to the context.

The AI is a generalist, context is exactly what it lacks. And context is distributed across people, teams, companies. Context is non-fungible. You can't eat so I get satiated. Context is what drives AI. And testing is the core contextual activity when using AI.

> Let's take someone who once upon a time was responsible for grading papers. As far as that person is concerned, AGI has arrived for their profession

You're talking about TAs. I know TAs. Their jobs have not disappeared. They are not using AI to grade papers.

> Are you really going to hire that developer because you need extra manpower to stand up test coverage?

Yes. Unsupervised AI agents cannot currently replace developers. "Oh we'll get someone to supervise it"—yes, that person's job title is "developer" and they will be doing largely the same job they'd have done 5 years ago.

> The universe of people getting paid to make CRUD apps is over.

Tell that to all the people who get paid to make CRUD apps. Frankly, Airtable has done more to disrupt CRUD apps than AI ever did.

> Rome needed to recognize that the Barbarian hordes had arrived.

IDK what to tell you. All these jobs are still around. You're just fantasizing.