Fair enough. I guess I’m just like those guys at the investors conference in The Big Short and can’t believe what I’m seeing.

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vessenes 3 days ago | parent | next [-]

You'll have your shot at shorting oAI soon apparently. I'm in a lot of these threads on the bull side, and I'll say - please be careful if you do, and only short what you can afford to lose. I'm sure the stock will be crazy volatile, but I don't see signs of anything unsustainable in oAI's ops right now, with the sole exception of increasing training spend using investor money. We're not in a good position outside the company to know if that will pay off. The parts we do know about, inference, users, growth, revenue growth and net income, are all generationally significant, and make shorting really risky.

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lesuorac 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I think the main issue with your theory is that it's $38B in today's dollars. In the 1970s we saw a lot less independence between the Fed and White House and as a consequence severe inflation. Trillions of dollars of liabilities is not going to sound so bad after 4 years of double-digit inflation ...

Also, IIUC the guys in The Big Short would've lost everything if the government stepped in sooner since the banks controlled the price of the CDSs and could've maintained the incorrect price if they had a bunch of extra cash.

	▲	ceejayoz 3 days ago \| parent [-]
		> Also, IIUC the guys in The Big Short would've lost everything if the government stepped in sooner since the banks controlled the price of the CDSs and could've maintained the incorrect price if they had a bunch of extra cash. Yeah. "Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Burry had an investor panic and nearly lost everything. He was right, but he nearly got the timing wrong.

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gretch 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Why does it matter if everyone else knows or cares?

If you were actually the guys from the big short and you have strong conviction, you should short the market (literally like the guys from big short) and get really rich.

Money is the language they understand, so hit them where it hurts.

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Uehreka 3 days ago | parent [-]

People always talk about shorting like it’s an efficient and reliable way to make money being right when everyone else is wrong. But it isn’t.

When you go long, you can still make money by being “sort of right” or “obliquely right” or “somewhat wrong but lucky”or by just collecting dividends if the market stays irrational long enough. If you short something you have to be exactly right (both about what will happen and precisely when) or your money will end up in the hands of the people you’re betting against. It’s not a symmetrical thing you can just switch back and forth on.

	▲	WA 3 days ago \| parent [-]
		Correct and the reason is that borrowing stock for shorting isn't free. You gotta pay interest on that. Or if you go the option route, your options lose value because of time.

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hluska 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

You’re using a movie to justify this?

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confirmmesenpai 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

did the price of NVIDIA made sense to you 2 years ago, when a lot of people were screaming it's in an obvious bubble?

if no, and you thought it was a bubble, does that price of NVIDIA from 2 years ago (not from today) makes sense to you now?