While you are right about the broader (and sort of ill defined) chase toward 'AGI' - another way to look at it is the self driving car - they got there eventually.And, if you work on applications using LLMs you can pretty easily see that Karpathy's sentiment is likely correct. You see it because you do it. Even simple applications are shaped like this, albeit each 9 takes less time than self driving cars for a simple app.. it still feels about right.

> another way to look at it is the self driving car - they got there eventually.

No they did not. Elon has been saying Tesla will get there “next year” since 2015. He is still saying that, and despite changing definitions, we still are not there.

> another way to look at it is the self driving car - they got there eventually

Current self driving cars only work in American roads. Maybe Canada too, not sure how their roads are. Come to Europe/anywhere else and every other road would be intractable. Much tighter lanes, many turns you have a little mirror to see who's coming on the other side, single car at a time lanes that you need to "understand" who goes first, mountain roads where you sometimes need to reverse for 100m when another car is coming so it's wide enough that they can pass before you can keep going forward, etc.

Many things like this that would require another 2 or 3 "nines" as the guy put it than acceptable quality in American huge roads.

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQ4NWIt...