Well you wouldn't bet all your assets because it would be an illiquid market that could only resolve in your favor in earliest 80 years.

If you're really serious about it put the money into a prediction market. Poly market has multiple AGI bets.

I see only one with 4% chance in 2025 (obviously...). And AGI is defined as "OpenAI announces they reached AGI".

Here's 46% for 2030. It's had $350k in volume across the 4 markets.

That’s also about OpenAI claiming they have AGI. That doesn’t resolve based on actual AGI.

	▲	tim333 a day ago \| parent [-]
		I wonder if there is a test for AGI which is definite enough to bet on? My personal test idea is when you can send for a robot to come fix your plumbing rather than needing a human.