I see only one with 4% chance in 2025 (obviously...). And AGI is defined as "OpenAI announces they reached AGI".

Here's 46% for 2030. It's had $350k in volume across the 4 markets.

That’s also about OpenAI claiming they have AGI. That doesn’t resolve based on actual AGI.

	▲	tim333 a day ago \| parent [-]
		I wonder if there is a test for AGI which is definite enough to bet on? My personal test idea is when you can send for a robot to come fix your plumbing rather than needing a human.