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beambot 2 days ago

This entire argument relies on new EV prices declining like other technologies, but this doesn't seem to be the case. E.g. the Nissan Leaf is ~$30,000 and has been for almost a decade. (Guess you could make a case with inflation... but nowhere near the technology price curves.)

nostrademons 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

It is the case globally. BYD sells EVs starting at $7800 [1][2], and Toyota sells an EV for $15,000 in China [3].

This may also be why Teslas are holding their value better than any other EV. Teslas are usually bought by U.S. consumers, who are forbidden from buying any of the cheaper global EVs by import restrictions. For fleets that buy models that are sold globally, they compete in the global market and are subject to global price declines.

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vs5h6R2jLUQ

[2] https://insideevs.com/reviews/769113/byd-seagull-good-video-...

[3] https://motorillustrated.com/toyota-launches-15000-bz3x-its-...

AnotherGoodName 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

Tesla's are also mostly made in China now.

The Chinese Tesla's are also dropping in price if you live in a country that hasn't got massive tariffs on Chinese made cars which is basically everywhere in the world except North America and Europe. Tesla literally won't sell you a Model S in Australia for example since it's made in the USA and there's no way they can sell it for a reasonable price.

It's a little damning for the US car market since Tesla's seen as a success of US manufacturing. Globally they are a Chinese made car.

decimalenough 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

The actual reason why you can't get a Model S in Australia is that Tesla does not manufacture a right hand drive version any more. You're equally out of luck in Japan, the UK, etc.

testing22321 a day ago | parent [-]

Why did they stop making the RHD version?

Because it was too expensive inRHD markets that have access to global EVs

dchftcs 2 days ago | parent | prev [-]

Also ironically their Chinese made car is said to have better build quality than the US made one.

formerly_proven 2 days ago | parent [-]

Maybe not that surprising, in large part the Germans built up the Chinese auto industry, and Tesla went to China to tap into that manufacturing knowledge/talent and backported it to their US factory.

kube-system 2 days ago | parent | prev [-]

> Teslas are usually bought by U.S. consumers

More than 62% of Teslas are sold outside of the US.

jacobr1 2 days ago | parent [-]

I think they meant the reverse. The majority of US EV sales are of Tesla's: https://cleantechnica.com/2025/04/15/auto-brands-leading-the...

brewdad a day ago | parent [-]

If we want to get nitpicky, Tesla no longer has the majority of US EV sales. Their market share has fallen to 42.3%. They still have a huge lead on the next closest brand however.

adgjlsfhk1 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The 2012 Nisan leaf had a 73 mile range. The 2025 leaf has a 300 mile range. 4x range at the same price (~30% less with inflation) is a pretty good improvement.

jacobr1 2 days ago | parent [-]

We've reach a point of price stabilization and longevity for smartphones now that didn't exist for the first 10 year ramp. When every new model added fundamental capability, you always want to upgrade, with the sweet spot often being every other year. But now, with better build quality, batteries, and stabilization of features people will keep their phones for much longer. Or buy "new" models that are of older versions since the price/features have been acceptable to run most of the apps they care about for years now. Plenty of people still want the top end for similar reasons to why people buy design clothing, but we've reached a feature plateau. We hopefully are getting close to that with EVs. Seems like around 300 mile range standard was the key thing. Though improved AI driving could change that again.

crote a day ago | parent [-]

The main issue with smartphones is software support, as it essentially acts like a built-in time bomb.

Buying an older-generation flagship model to get better features than a current-generation midrange model of the same market price isn't very attractive when it'll have to be replaced after 2 years instead of 5 years.

dchftcs 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The only reason US doesn't have an EV cheaper than that is a >100% tariff on Chinese EVs.

platevoltage 2 days ago | parent [-]

Could be part of it, but the US just doesn't have cheap cars anymore. The days of the Geo Metro and the Dodge Neon with a 5 speed and crank windows is over. Car companies have decided to relegate people (in the USA) with either low income, or who cant stomach the type of depreciation every car suffers from, to the used market.

tfvlrue a day ago | parent | next [-]

My (admittedly very, very limited) personal experience owning cars actually suggests cars are getting cheaper over the past couple decades. Specifically, my data looks like this:

- A new Honda Accord LX in 2003 was ~$19k

- A new Honda Accord LX in 2020 was ~$23k

In today's dollars, that's roughly $33k and $29k, respectively. These numbers are very approximate, but it means the same car model in 2020 was about 12% less expensive than the one in 2003. And the new version has a whole lot of improvements and features the old one didn't. (They cheaped out and removed the lock from the glove compartment though!)

Stepping back and thinking about the complexities that go into manufacturing a modern automobile, it's wild to me that they can cost so little compared to what you get. It's a machine that can travel 200+ thousand miles and last for decades with barely any maintenance.

Commercial-scale vehicles (semi trucks, busses) cost an order of magnitude more than personal vehicles, yet share many of the same complexities. Like, how are cars so cheap for what they are? Manufacturing volume, I guess.

9dev a day ago | parent [-]

> Like, how are cars so cheap for what they are? Manufacturing volume, I guess.

That, and externalising a lot of the const on society, the environment, and third world countries.

Open-Sourcery a day ago | parent [-]

A opposed to the commercial vehicles which don't?

labcomputer 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

The reality is that there's no margin in cheap cars. You need to look at numbers instead of vibes.

The difference between 4 crank-up window regulators and 4 power window regulators is less than $100. 4 power lock actuators cost less than $20. Switches for all the above are, what, maybe $10?

The same math applies to power mirrors, auto climate control, heated seats, cruise control, and all the rest.

The production cost of a car with "power everything" vs. "manual everything" is a few hundred dollars at most. But consumers expect a much bigger discount for the inconvenience of missing those features (or, conversely, are willing to pay a much larger premium to add those features to a baseline car).

That the US doesn't have cheap cars is simply the reality of what the market demands. Cheap (new) cars don't sell (for more than what it costs to produce them).

platevoltage a day ago | parent [-]

I wasn't implying that throwing manual window regulators on a 2025 model car would be a significant cost reduction. It was just 2 examples that I could think of to back up my point that there are fewer affordable cars than there used to be.

supportengineer 2 days ago | parent | prev [-]

2026 Corolla is $25k.

I saw a manual transmission Nissan Versa for $17k.

How much cheaper can they get?

kelnos 2 days ago | parent [-]

A friend of mine bought a used car in 2007 for ~$4500 in 2025 dollars.

In my mid-20s I bought a 3-year-old Accord for $16k (using a $12k loan) and that was a big stretch for my finances at the time, despite having a good early-career tech job.

Your $17k figure is a lot of money for most folks in the US.

khuey 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

MSRP of an internal-combustion-powered Civic or Corolla is up 30ish percent in the same time period. The 2025 Nissan Leaf is a lot better than the 2015 model too. Range has nearly doubled for one.

kasey_junk 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

What are the ranges across that decade. If the inflation adjusted price is lowering and the main technical limit is improving, it’s exactly what you’d expect from a technology improvement.

Car prices are tough too because how much subsidies, tariffs etc play into it.

But theoretically if you used a US made car you could limit some of that bias.

2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]
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dangus 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

No, you completely missed the point. The new model is still ~$30,000 but it has better range/charges faster/drives better.

That doesn’t really happen as dramatically with gasoline cars. The powertrain and driving experience of a 5 year old gas car isn’t noticeably different than a current one.

If you buy a 5 year old EV you might get one that charges slow, doesn’t have a heat pump, has worse battery chemistry, battery health management, and the list goes on.

Heck, the Leaf is a perfect example because you’re stuck with chademo fast charging charging instead of CCS or NACS. I wouldn’t touch one with a 9 foot pole unless I planned to exclusively charge at home.

Also, don’t take my comment to mean that I think used EVs are a bad choice, many of them can work very well for many years and use cases as long as you are properly informed.

edbaskerville 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

This argument seems right to me. Old ICE cars are basically the same as new ones. EVs are getting better quickly, so fast depreciation makes sense.

I avoided a used Leaf for exactly the reason you cited...2.5 years ago, and have been very happy with a last-of-its-generation 2023 Chevy Bolt (~ $22K new after tax credit).

But if you don't care about new features, e.g., really fast charging, a used Bolt (55kW max) is a great option!

idiotsecant 2 days ago | parent [-]

>>Old ICE cars are basically the same as new ones.

I'm not sure that's totally true. The rate of change might be lower, but new ICE vehicles have higher efficiency (directly correlating to longer EV range) and are safer, more comfortable, and quieter.

I am definitely on the pro-EV side, nearly an evangelist I suppose, but ICE vehicles do improve.

seanmcdirmid 2 days ago | parent [-]

How are ICEs quieter than EVs? Are you talking about the artificial noise EVs put out at low speeds so they don't sneak up on people?

ICEs have longer range, some of them are really fuel efficient, especially hybrids. But they drive relatively more poorly unless you opt for a sports car that is cramped and expensive. It isn't the worse thing in the world to drive an ICE, but it is noticeably less fun than driving an EV.

dare944 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

> How are ICEs quieter than EVs?

That wasn't the point being made. The point was that newer ICE cars are quieter than older models, and thus ICE vehicles have improved (at least to some degree) over the same period as EVs.

overfeed 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> How are ICEs quieter than EVs? Are you talking about the artificial noise EVs put out at low speeds so they don't sneak up on people?

I think your second sentence answers your first. Car noise = tire noise + motor noise. EVs have very low motor noise compared to IC.

EVs also tend to have better cabin dampening on average, but that likely has to do with price-band consumer expectations, and not inherent to the method of propulsion.

seanmcdirmid 2 days ago | parent | next [-]

You know you can disable that. It might be against the law though, and it isn't the EVs that demand noise, it is the society that demands them not to be silent killers. Even Hybrids have to make this noise when they are running on their electric drive trains.

But let's say ICEs were made as quiet, they would be demanded to make noise as well. Also, no one has done anything about tire noise yet, so at high speeds, EVs and ICEs are about the same.

platevoltage 2 days ago | parent | prev [-]

EVs are also much heavier, which contributes to lower noise as well. You've got a massively heavy battery pack between you and the road.

idiotsecant a day ago | parent | prev [-]

None of the comparisons I made were between ICE and EV, They're between old ICE and new ICE.

Marsymars 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> That doesn’t really happen as dramatically with gasoline cars. The powertrain and driving experience of a 5 year old gas car isn’t noticeably different than a current one.

Depends. I recently went from a manual car to a mild hybrid with an eCVT. Feels pretty different to me.

dangus 2 days ago | parent [-]

Hybrids with eCVTs existed 5-15 years ago. You just happened to not be driving one.

Marsymars 2 days ago | parent [-]

Er, yeah, but that’s kinda analagous to the situation with EVs - there’s a big difference going from a 2015 Nissan Leaf to a 2025 Models S - there’s not nearly as much of a difference going from a 2015 Models S to a 2025 Model S.

nwienert 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

This isn’t what’s happening though.

I see Tesla Highland models (<1 year old, current gen) selling at significantly larger depreciations than nearly new gas cars. This holds across other EV manufacturers.

dangus 2 days ago | parent [-]

This makes a ton of sense considering the recently expired tax credit. The moment you drive an EV off the lot in September or earlier it’s worth $7,500 less than the normal depreciation.

I think if we give the used market a few years without the tax credit it’ll start to look more normal.

nwienert 2 days ago | parent [-]

I think that only explains some of it, but definitely not all. The difference between gas models is massive. Look at Audi e trons for example which are regularly hitting 70% depreciation in 3 years with relatively low miles.

I think it’s a lot of things: demand is weakening because people are seeing that the attempt to force them on us faltering so we don’t have to switch, trust in reliability is lower, trust in battery durability too.

Also I think some of the myths of EVs advantages are being uncovered: the cost of batteries and tires takes a lot of the cost benefits away. EV charging stations are past 50% of gas station costs, when they used to be subsidized to be free. The complexity of battery, and the immensely complex heating and cooling systems means they aren’t as simple as many thought. There’s also environmental stuff - 2010s was peak climate change anxiety, you got a lot of social credit for an EV then, even more so because they were novel. The novelty factor and lack of cultural emphasis on environment both are degrading prices too.

labcomputer 2 days ago | parent [-]

e-Trons are definitely among the best deals right now in used EVs, but it's down to a confluence of factors specific to that car:

1. It had fairly good charging, but only so-so range. 250 miles seems to be a big psychological barrier for a lot of people and the e-Tron is on the wrong side of that line.

2. It's a luxury car and should be expected to have luxury car depreciation as a baseline

3. It's a luxury car with luxury car maintenance costs

4. It's a luxury car that had (maybe has) some reliability issues which incur luxury car repair costs

5. Audi had very good lease deals when they were new ("trunk money" was a common phrase)

6. Fuel economy is fairly bad when compared to anything other than an EV pickup

All these combine to make it a used car that only appeals to a very specific buyer.

nwienert a day ago | parent [-]

True but the range isn’t really outside of the average range and luxury cars aren’t that uncommon. The deals were because they were high priced but don’t nearly account for the difference. 125k msrp now going for 55k with low miles is really something else, even if people got them for 105 or so which is what I heard, that’s still the 60% I mentioned.

mixmastamyk 2 days ago | parent | prev [-]

Indeed, and didn't even mention ~30% inflation over the last five years.

jeffbee 2 days ago | parent | prev [-]

I don't think that's a realistic transaction price for the Nissan Leaf. For most of that decade they were all but giving them away on leases as low as $79/mo. There are probably streaming video channels that cost more than a Nissan Leaf.