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blakepelton 17 hours ago

I've asked two financial advisors about CAT bonds. One had never heard of them and the other said were about as risky as crypto. I guess this is such a niche product that there isn't widespread knowledge about it.

I wonder how much more diversified $ILS could be if it were larger. Would a 10x increase in assets under management give it significantly less volatility because it could do a better job spreading risk around the globe?

rrjjww 17 hours ago | parent | next [-]

The lack of information was my inspiration for building Riskvest. I called my own broker and when I said catastrophic bonds they asked if I meant buying bonds already in default.

On the risk side - your comments here are part of the myth I’m trying to dispel and will have lots more to say in future posts.

Yes for a single CAT bond you are exposed to potential 100% principle losses. But if you buy a bundle of CAT bonds that focus on say California Earthquake, Florida Hurricane, Japanese Typhoon, and a Cyber Event, you can imagine the diversification benefit you get there.

I’ve already created a very very simple model for people to play around with and learn the intuition for CAT bond return patterns. A default means 100% loss and this is unique vs. other bonds. I plan in the future to build a much more robust model.

https://www.riskvest.io/data-lab/cat-bond-portfolio-simulato...

bawolff 13 hours ago | parent [-]

> But if you buy a bundle of CAT bonds that focus on say California Earthquake, Florida Hurricane, Japanese Typhoon, and a Cyber Event, you can imagine the diversification benefit you get there.

Yeah, but imagine how bad a day you're having if all of those disasters happen at once, and then as a cherry on top you lose all your money.

itake 11 hours ago | parent [-]

Yeah, it seems like you’d want to buy bonds that covers areas that you’re not personally in…

richardfey 6 hours ago | parent [-]

Why? It's not like you can influence the trigger of any such catastrophe

pm215 5 hours ago | parent [-]

Same principle as why many people prefer not to own shares in the company that employs them -- you're already heavily exposed to that specific risk and don't want to add more. If you live in Florida then a hurricane in Florida already might mean financial loss for you if it damages your house, so buying a CAT bond that covers a different thing is more diversified risk: you might get "house is trashed" or "bond is total loss" but at least you probably will not get both at once.

jbs789 8 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

There are institutional funds but generally it’s a small market with very limited retail presence. Schroders has one. (Artemis is a great source of info in the space - niche trade publication.)

https://www.artemis.bm/ils-fund-managers/schroder-investment...

bvan 15 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-]

It has been growing slowly for the past 25 years. The limited market size is a reflection of the demand by traditional insurers and reinsurers, for alternative sources of capital. This is as it should be.. when traditional players start transferring risk to the capital markets motivated by the fees involved, or cheaper rates (premium), then you really start worrying about moral hazard i.e. ‘bad risks’ getting transferred to investors.

olooney 17 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

CAT bonds are typically restricted to institutional investors. I would be very surprised if you could even buy one without being a QIB.

anjel 10 hours ago | parent | next [-]

https://riskvest.io/market-watch/ils-nyse-offering

rrjjww 17 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

New opportunities for retail investors have been popping up lately! That’s a big part of what Riskvest is meant to document.