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| ▲ | andrewmutz 13 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | You forgot the main source of pressure: you sell off equity in your company in exchange for cash. The buyers are buying the promise of future profits. At first, you still hold the vast majority of the voting rights, but over time you sell more and more and expectations rise and rise. Eventually you are an organization whose purpose is to return cash to shareholders in the near term. Hence a page full of ads, and no reason to think things will ever change. | | |
| ▲ | tonmoy 11 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Is that the reason Steam is still loved by users? (not sure how long that’ll last tho) | |
| ▲ | eru 10 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Google's original founders still hold the majority of votes. > Eventually you are an organization whose purpose is to return cash to shareholders in the near term. Amazon's history shows that public shareholders can be very patient with cash being returned to them, or the company ever showing a profit at all. Tesla used to be in the same boat. Shareholders are very forward looking. They just don't necessarily trust 'visionary managers' not be full of bullshit. Probably rightly so. |
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| ▲ | hn_throwaway_99 12 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I think it's a mistake to think of these cycles as inevitable, and that it's guaranteed that some small fry will disrupt the current giants. Yes, they may have happened in the past, but large companies are much more cognizant of the cycles of disruption now than they were 30 or 40 years ago. Microsoft was a behemoth in the late 80s and they're currently number 2 market cap in the world. Many folks on this board may be too young to remember Netscape's boast of "The Browser is the OS" in the mid 90s - well, Netscape is long gone and Microsoft is still giant. Only 2 years ago you saw pronouncements that OpenAI was going to be the death knell for Google, and it was it seemed to be the kick in the pants that Google needed to get their AI story working. Facebook just basically bought all its nascent competition (Instagram, WhatsApp, etc.) I think disrupting large players will be much harder than it was it the past. | | |
| ▲ | bawolff 12 hours ago | parent [-] | | These cycles have been going on a lot longer than the last 40 years. Everything eventually dies. Rome used to rule the world; sure it took about a thousand years, but it ultimately didn't last. | | |
| ▲ | hn_throwaway_99 12 hours ago | parent [-] | | I fully accept the heat death of the universe will eventually take down Microsoft, but I don't think that's what the comment I was responding to was really about. | | |
| ▲ | bawolff 8 hours ago | parent [-] | | My point was that this cycle is not a recent thing, but has been present all throughout history. Bell labs fell. The hudson bay company fell. Arthur Andersen fell. All these were much more entrenched than microsoft is today. I'm not suggesting you have to wait for the heat death of the universe. |
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| ▲ | ghssds 14 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Don't worry. Our legislators around the world are hard working so this doesn't happen again, protecting us from harmful contents and cementing current industry leaders' position. | | |
| ▲ | foobarian 13 hours ago | parent [-] | | > protecting us from harmful contents In Soviet Russia government protects harmful contents from us! |
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| ▲ | darth_avocado 13 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I think there’s a middle ground between not making any money by not showing ads and plastering half the page with ads in a way that almost renders the product useless. I’m sure this was a result of a long list of promo packets that incrementally kept adding 0.01% increases to the ad impressions. | | |
| ▲ | eru 10 hours ago | parent [-] | | Just one facet of what we call 'promotion oriented programming' (or promotion oriented design). Google's promotion guidelines used to include that if you want to get a promotion on a technical track, you have to demonstrate a mastery of complexity. Cue the unnecessary complexity in some projects meant to get the author promoted. (They might still include that requirement. I don't know. I haven't worked at Google in nearly a decade.) |
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| ▲ | dvngnt_ 14 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Used to be. Now the megacorp just buys the disrupting platform | | |
| ▲ | eru 10 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | You say that like it's a bad thing. Can you imagine a more effective way to incentivise more people to start even more disrupting platforms? Can you image a more effective way to get investors to give money to these upstarts? It's much easier to get your rabble-rousing startup to threaten disruption (and then be bought up as a precaution), than if you had to actually battle it out in the marketplace to the bitter end. | |
| ▲ | lo_zamoyski 11 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Most revolutions are merely power transfers. But sometimes the incumbent crushes the revolutionary. And sometimes the incumbent hires or bribes the revolutionary. And sometimes the incumbent guts the revolutionary and wears his face as a mask. |
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| ▲ | NoPicklez 11 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Well Google has been a very good example of not giving into that pressure for a very long time. Their landing page remained ad free for decades and their revenue came from sponsored links through ad-words which was a minimally invasive ad strategy which didn't show banners etc. | |
| ▲ | boringg 13 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Wouldn't it be nice if some companies instead of ramping up ads for revenue passed along the value to consumers? Once they made their money back on the original investments convert to a lifestyle and provide a valuable product without squeezing every penny our of it and in the end killing it. One day maybe. | | |
| ▲ | chongli 12 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | They did pass on a lot of value to consumers. They used their profits to grow, build Gmail, buy and grow YouTube, build Android. Just running Google as-is without ads would have produced less value in the long run. Plus the SEO tide (which relied on DoubleClick ads that weren't yet owned by Google) began to rise and would've drowned Google Search much earlier if they hadn't grown. Where I think Google took the bad (for consumers) turn was when they purchased DoubleClick and began to consolidate the entire ad business. Instead of losing money to SEO spammers, they began to make money. This put Google into a conflict of interest against their own users. Ever since then they've been piling onto that conflict of interest, draining more and more value from their products. | |
| ▲ | xp84 13 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | I feel like you'd need a new corporate structure or something, like the way an S-corp is different, but on steroids. Because I agree, the forced obsession with "growth" at all costs, which seems necessary to operate a public company (at least in this century[1]), is imho the #1 reason why enshittification is unavoidable. [1] I'd describe nearly all present-day corporations as fixated on quarterly results even at the expense of business viability. Something I truly don't understand is why big companies say, 75 years ago seem to have been so much less that way. If anyone has any theories I'd love to hear them. |
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| ▲ | zahlman 11 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I've already grown to hate the very words "nimble" and "disrupt". | |
| ▲ | cmrdporcupine 12 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Google managed to dance the knife edge there for a lot longer than most though. AdWords made so much money in a fairly unobtrusive way, that they were able to scale it out without pissing a lot of people off. That and it was actually even sometimes useful. They clearly decided to just say "fuck it" though. Sometime after Ruth Porat replaced Patrick Pichette and especially after Sundar took the helm (both happened while I worked there) but most especially in the last 3 years. | |
| ▲ | efitz 13 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | The term for this is “enshittification” | |
| ▲ | lo_zamoyski 12 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | "Always two there are, the disrupted and the disruptor." |
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| ▲ | kelseyfrog 13 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > instead they got greedier and greedier and made their product worse once they captured most of the market I wouldn't necessarily put it that way because not Google, nor any company, has moral capacity. They don't have souls. What they do have are incentive structures, and those flip when the stock goes public. Pre-IPO: the board is mostly founders and VCs holding paper wealth. Their shares aren't liquid, so the only way they get paid is by making the pie way bigger for some future exit. That means "grow, grow, grow." and that means playing nice with customers. Post-IPO: the board is legally stuffed with "independent" directors, whose pay comes in RSUs tied to the stock price. Now the shares are instantly tradable, and shareholders who can bail in a quarter want to see results in a quarter. Directors translate that into exec comp, and suddenly management's job is "make the stock go up right now." Some theorists point out the obvious hack: take away the hot potato. Slow the game down. Make shares harder to flip, make earnings less frequent. If you could only trade stock once a year, you'd actually care what the company looks like in a year. If they only reported results annually, you'd be forced to think in years, not quarters. Upside: management can focus on products and customers instead of quarterly guidance theater. Downside: investors hate being locked up, and capital gets more expensive because people price in that illiquidity. Transparency drops, execs get more room to bullshit. It's a tradeoff: you can have maximum liquidity and hyper-efficient capital markets, but then you get short-term brain damage. Or you can slow the game down, but then you're basically asking people to trust managers more and accept worse capital efficiency. Nobody;s found the perfect middle yet. LTSE[1] tried, dual-class shares are a kludge, and otherwise we just live with the cycle: grow like crazy private, IPO, then spend the rest of your corporate life addicted to quarterly earnings. 1. https://ltse.com/ | | |
| ▲ | marcus_holmes 11 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | In the old days, companies were valued on their expected dividend. Share prices didn't move that much, and trading shares took time and had fees attached. You could speculate on share price moves, and people did, but the primary source of income from holding shares was dividends. Now it's the other way around. The primary source of gains from owing shares is speculation on the share price. Dividends are mostly ignored. The result of this is that share prices move not on "how well is the company likely to do?" but on "what do we think the share price will do in the next couple of months (at most) [0]?". It all becomes hype and rumour and speculation. Shareholders only care about the price, so boards are incentivised to only care about the price. And so on down. Generating hype about what the company is going to do becomes more important than actually doing it (I exaggerate, but not by much). This then leads to the short-term-ism that we see, and the hot potato effect. I think the answer would be to tax speculative profits. If you sell something for more than you bought it for, the government takes a cut. Specifically remove this from income tax calculations, because they have way too many loopholes, and make it more like VAT/GST; a tax payable at the point of the transaction. This would reduce the profits from speculation, and hopefully move the emphasis back onto dividends and longer-term thinking. [0] and obviously, for some privileged traders, the next couple of milliseconds | | |
| ▲ | kelseyfrog 11 hours ago | parent [-] | | While the importance of dividends has waned, we should still mention buybacks and liquidation. They still exist and buybacks especially are an important part of delivering shareholder value. Apple is a great example of returning about 4 times more in buybacks than dividends. How would you feel about tax-disadvantaging buybacks? | | |
| ▲ | marcus_holmes 10 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Good point, and good question. I like Cory Doctorow's take on this [0], that this is basically defrauding the shareholders. It used to be illegal, it probably should be illegal again. It's also unsustainable, in that you can only do this for so long before you've bought up all the open shares and there's so few remaining that your company is no longer effectively tradeable. I don't know where this practice leads, but I don't think it's a place we want to go to. I suspect it'll be further concentration of capital into fewer hands. To the extreme, we end up with all the large companies doing this becoming effectively private, owned by a small group of folks rich enough to keep their holdings while everyone else sells out during the buybacks. That's not good. [0] https://pluralistic.net/2025/09/06/computer-says-huh/ | | |
| ▲ | eru 10 hours ago | parent [-] | | How are buybacks defrauding anyone? They just return money to shareholders. The only material difference with dividends is the tax treatment. Even all the incentives are the same. > It's also unsustainable, in that you can only do this for so long before you've bought up all the open shares and there's so few remaining that your company is no longer effectively tradeable. What makes you think so? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stock_split might blow your mind. > To the extreme, we end up with all the large companies doing this becoming effectively private, owned by a small group of folks rich enough to keep their holdings while everyone else sells out during the buybacks. That's not good. You can tell your broker to automatically re-invest dividends for you. Similarly, if you just don't sell when there's a buyback, you own more of the company afterwards. No one is forced to sell. Btw, most companies (including Apple and Google) keep issuing shares to employees. Buying back some of them in the open market is just an indirect roundabout way of essentially handing employees cash. | | |
| ▲ | marcus_holmes 10 hours ago | parent [-] | | > How are buybacks defrauding anyone? Mr Doctorow's point is that the company is taking money from its operations, which it should be spending on expanding those operations and increasing its value, and spending that money on artificially inflating its share price, by effectively wash trading the shares, creating artificial demand, and artificially reducing supply. If you bought shares in the company as a long-term position in order to receive dividends then you do not benefit from buybacks, and arguably lose out (because the money used on the buyback could have been distributed as a dividend). It only benefits short-term speculator shareholders. And, of course, the executives who are incentivised on share price, for whom a buyback is a much, much, easier way to get those incentives than actually doing their jobs and using the money to grow the company. | | |
| ▲ | eru 10 hours ago | parent [-] | | Thanks for the explanation. How is any of that fraud? Fraud doesn't just mean you have to disagree with something someone does, but you have to have been lied to. > And, of course, the executives who are incentivised on share price, for whom a buyback is a much, much, easier way to get those incentives than actually doing their jobs and using the money to grow the company. Companies can and should adjust the incentives so that the effect of dividends and buybacks are the same for the executive. (They already adjust for share splits for example.) > If you bought shares in the company as a long-term position in order to receive dividends then you do not benefit from buybacks, and arguably lose out (because the money used on the buyback could have been distributed as a dividend). Before you buy any shares, you should check what management says about their plans. At least, if you have specific expectations. Even if buybacks were outlawed, companies aren't guaranteed to pay dividends. It's perfectly legal to never make a profit, or to give all your excess money to charity. You just have to tell your shareholders. > Mr Doctorow's point is that the company is taking money from its operations, which it should be spending on expanding those operations and increasing its value, and spending that money on artificially inflating its share price, by effectively wash trading the shares, creating artificial demand, and artificially reducing supply. Yeah, that's a stupid objection. The substantial first half of it would equally well apply to dividends. (And the whole point of giving money to companies as an investor is that eventually you are getting more back.) The second half is just not how any of this works. Does he even know what a wash trade is? And what's 'artificial' about this? |
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| ▲ | eru 10 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Buybacks and dividends are financially equivalent. They give money from the company to shareholders. The incentives are exactly the same for all parties involved, too. Their only material difference is in taxes. Yes, I am in favour of putting dividends and buy backs on the same tax footing, just in the name of simplicity. And while you are at it, also put dividends and interest payments on the same tax footing. At the moment, many jurisdictions advantage interest payments, thus encourage financing companies with debt instead of equity. And then they awkwardly pair it with other rules that try to tell companies (especially financial companies like banks) not to use so much debt, not to be so levered. |
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| ▲ | eru 10 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | > Some theorists point out the obvious hack: take away the hot potato. Slow the game down. Make shares harder to flip, make earnings less frequent. If you could only trade stock once a year, you'd actually care what the company looks like in a year. If they only reported results annually, you'd be forced to think in years, not quarters. Google's original founders still hold the majority of voting rights. Making trading less efficient wouldn't change anything here. > It's a tradeoff: you can have maximum liquidity and hyper-efficient capital markets, but then you get short-term brain damage. Or you can slow the game down, but then you're basically asking people to trust managers more and accept worse capital efficiency. No, your proposal wouldn't work at all. A big problem is actually that most managers in most companies mostly work for themselves. It's called a 'principal/agent problem'. Exactly as you say 'execs get more room to bullshit.' Btw, there's private equity funds with very long capital lock-ups. Their effects on companies typically aren't loved by the people who voice similar concerns to yours. |
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| ▲ | eru 10 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Not all places even have minimum wage laws. In any case, good luck designing your system in such a way that's (A) not trivial to bypass, and (B) doesn't gut the economy. As a customer (and worker and investor) you have to vote with your feet and wallet to show the market what you want and don't want in your companies. | |
| ▲ | owenthejumper 13 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | That capitalism technically already exists in the US. We have very strong monopoly laws. It's just...nobody is enforcing them. Unlike the 70's and 80's: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breakup_of_the_Bell_System | | |
| ▲ | xp84 13 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | AT&T eventually gave up and agreed to divest of the RBOCs because they didn't like their chances with the regulators. Imagine a Big Tech company having so little faith today in their ability to manipulate the government between lobbying, campaign contributions, and the most modern and economical play, stroking the President's ego. | |
| ▲ | nerdponx 13 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Biden's FTC chair tried her best, but it didn't go anywhere because she had no support and Trump put an end to it. But both sides amirite? |
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