| ▲ | justapassenger 14 hours ago |
| It's a very common story in industry. You start nimble, and disrupt bloated platforms. Then, as you grow, pressure grows and you also bloat. Then new company comes that brings nimble product and disrupt you. Search, TV->internet video, newspapers->internet - all of them go through those cycles. |
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| ▲ | andrewmutz 13 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| You forgot the main source of pressure: you sell off equity in your company in exchange for cash. The buyers are buying the promise of future profits. At first, you still hold the vast majority of the voting rights, but over time you sell more and more and expectations rise and rise. Eventually you are an organization whose purpose is to return cash to shareholders in the near term. Hence a page full of ads, and no reason to think things will ever change. |
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| ▲ | tonmoy 11 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Is that the reason Steam is still loved by users? (not sure how long that’ll last tho) | |
| ▲ | eru 11 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Google's original founders still hold the majority of votes. > Eventually you are an organization whose purpose is to return cash to shareholders in the near term. Amazon's history shows that public shareholders can be very patient with cash being returned to them, or the company ever showing a profit at all. Tesla used to be in the same boat. Shareholders are very forward looking. They just don't necessarily trust 'visionary managers' not be full of bullshit. Probably rightly so. |
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| ▲ | hn_throwaway_99 12 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| I think it's a mistake to think of these cycles as inevitable, and that it's guaranteed that some small fry will disrupt the current giants. Yes, they may have happened in the past, but large companies are much more cognizant of the cycles of disruption now than they were 30 or 40 years ago. Microsoft was a behemoth in the late 80s and they're currently number 2 market cap in the world. Many folks on this board may be too young to remember Netscape's boast of "The Browser is the OS" in the mid 90s - well, Netscape is long gone and Microsoft is still giant. Only 2 years ago you saw pronouncements that OpenAI was going to be the death knell for Google, and it was it seemed to be the kick in the pants that Google needed to get their AI story working. Facebook just basically bought all its nascent competition (Instagram, WhatsApp, etc.) I think disrupting large players will be much harder than it was it the past. |
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| ▲ | bawolff 12 hours ago | parent [-] | | These cycles have been going on a lot longer than the last 40 years. Everything eventually dies. Rome used to rule the world; sure it took about a thousand years, but it ultimately didn't last. | | |
| ▲ | hn_throwaway_99 12 hours ago | parent [-] | | I fully accept the heat death of the universe will eventually take down Microsoft, but I don't think that's what the comment I was responding to was really about. | | |
| ▲ | bawolff 8 hours ago | parent [-] | | My point was that this cycle is not a recent thing, but has been present all throughout history. Bell labs fell. The hudson bay company fell. Arthur Andersen fell. All these were much more entrenched than microsoft is today. I'm not suggesting you have to wait for the heat death of the universe. |
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| ▲ | ghssds 14 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Don't worry. Our legislators around the world are hard working so this doesn't happen again, protecting us from harmful contents and cementing current industry leaders' position. |
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| ▲ | foobarian 13 hours ago | parent [-] | | > protecting us from harmful contents In Soviet Russia government protects harmful contents from us! |
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| ▲ | darth_avocado 13 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| I think there’s a middle ground between not making any money by not showing ads and plastering half the page with ads in a way that almost renders the product useless. I’m sure this was a result of a long list of promo packets that incrementally kept adding 0.01% increases to the ad impressions. |
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| ▲ | eru 10 hours ago | parent [-] | | Just one facet of what we call 'promotion oriented programming' (or promotion oriented design). Google's promotion guidelines used to include that if you want to get a promotion on a technical track, you have to demonstrate a mastery of complexity. Cue the unnecessary complexity in some projects meant to get the author promoted. (They might still include that requirement. I don't know. I haven't worked at Google in nearly a decade.) |
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| ▲ | dvngnt_ 14 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Used to be. Now the megacorp just buys the disrupting platform |
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| ▲ | eru 10 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | You say that like it's a bad thing. Can you imagine a more effective way to incentivise more people to start even more disrupting platforms? Can you image a more effective way to get investors to give money to these upstarts? It's much easier to get your rabble-rousing startup to threaten disruption (and then be bought up as a precaution), than if you had to actually battle it out in the marketplace to the bitter end. | |
| ▲ | lo_zamoyski 12 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Most revolutions are merely power transfers. But sometimes the incumbent crushes the revolutionary. And sometimes the incumbent hires or bribes the revolutionary. And sometimes the incumbent guts the revolutionary and wears his face as a mask. |
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| ▲ | NoPicklez 11 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Well Google has been a very good example of not giving into that pressure for a very long time. Their landing page remained ad free for decades and their revenue came from sponsored links through ad-words which was a minimally invasive ad strategy which didn't show banners etc. |
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| ▲ | boringg 13 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Wouldn't it be nice if some companies instead of ramping up ads for revenue passed along the value to consumers? Once they made their money back on the original investments convert to a lifestyle and provide a valuable product without squeezing every penny our of it and in the end killing it. One day maybe. |
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| ▲ | chongli 12 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | They did pass on a lot of value to consumers. They used their profits to grow, build Gmail, buy and grow YouTube, build Android. Just running Google as-is without ads would have produced less value in the long run. Plus the SEO tide (which relied on DoubleClick ads that weren't yet owned by Google) began to rise and would've drowned Google Search much earlier if they hadn't grown. Where I think Google took the bad (for consumers) turn was when they purchased DoubleClick and began to consolidate the entire ad business. Instead of losing money to SEO spammers, they began to make money. This put Google into a conflict of interest against their own users. Ever since then they've been piling onto that conflict of interest, draining more and more value from their products. | |
| ▲ | xp84 13 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | I feel like you'd need a new corporate structure or something, like the way an S-corp is different, but on steroids. Because I agree, the forced obsession with "growth" at all costs, which seems necessary to operate a public company (at least in this century[1]), is imho the #1 reason why enshittification is unavoidable. [1] I'd describe nearly all present-day corporations as fixated on quarterly results even at the expense of business viability. Something I truly don't understand is why big companies say, 75 years ago seem to have been so much less that way. If anyone has any theories I'd love to hear them. |
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| ▲ | zahlman 12 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| I've already grown to hate the very words "nimble" and "disrupt". |
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| ▲ | cmrdporcupine 12 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Google managed to dance the knife edge there for a lot longer than most though. AdWords made so much money in a fairly unobtrusive way, that they were able to scale it out without pissing a lot of people off. That and it was actually even sometimes useful. They clearly decided to just say "fuck it" though. Sometime after Ruth Porat replaced Patrick Pichette and especially after Sundar took the helm (both happened while I worked there) but most especially in the last 3 years. |
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| ▲ | efitz 13 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| The term for this is “enshittification” |
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| ▲ | lo_zamoyski 12 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| "Always two there are, the disrupted and the disruptor." |