> There is no credible indication that AI in general is a bubble, even if not all investments will make sense in retrospect.

If you add up all of the contracts that OpenAI is signing, it's buying something like $1 trillion/year worth of compute. To merely break even, it would have to make more money than literally every other company on the planet, fairly close to twice the current highest revenue company (Walmart, a retailer, which, yeah, there's a reason that has high revenue).

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cubefox 4 days ago | parent [-]

They are aiming at being the first to develop an AGI and eventually superintelligence. Something that can replace human workers. Walmart is small fish in comparison. OpenAI is currently in the lead, so their chances are decent.

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tptacek 3 days ago | parent [-]

This is an argument that OpenAI needs to achieve a supernatural outcome in order to be a financial success.

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cubefox 3 days ago | parent [-]

So you think superhuman intelligence is supernatural.

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tptacek 3 days ago | parent [-]

If you want to substitute "science fiction" that's fine too. We generally don't bank real investment expectations on science fiction outcomes. The positive expectation scenario you've provided is "OpenAI obsoletes workers, to the extent that Walmart is small fish". That's a sci-fi outcome, not a rational expectation.

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cubefox 3 days ago | parent [-]

You would have called ChatGPT or Dall-E science fiction just shortly before it actually came out.

	▲	tptacek 3 days ago \| parent [-]
		Perhaps. Also time travel machines. But for different reasons.