That is going to really slow LLM development in China. But more GPUs for everyone else!

4 days ago | parent | next [-]

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sameermanek 4 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I mean, progress is already getting slow in llm development space and their qwen models are, well, good enough for time being. Meanwhile, its good for the world that they are working on their own chips, that way nVidia will have to stop being comfortable.

This is step in good direction for everyone except nvidia and its chinese distribution network

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ponector 4 days ago | parent | prev [-]

They have more electric power (also cheaper), more data centers. I bet AI development will be slower elsewhere.

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kimixa 4 days ago | parent [-]

Yup - at some level of scale it's very much an infrastructure game.

No amount of trade war politics will make up for a lack in infrastructure investment.

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xadhominemx 4 days ago | parent [-]

In 24 months, US hyperscalers will be training models on GPUs/XPUs with 16A process technology and HBM4E. The gap between the raw processing power of US and Chinese AI hardware will be widening.

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jamiek88 4 days ago | parent [-]

I wish I had your confidence being able to forecast 24 months ahead. In 24 months TSMC could be a smoking crater.

There won’t be 16A manufacturing here in the USA.

Probably ever.

We live in extremely dangerous uncertain times.

Any forecast that long is worthless.

	▲	UltraSane 4 days ago \| parent \| next [-]
		You seem extremely pessimistic. TSMC SoW-X will put an entire wafer worth of chips on a single substrate and be incredibly fast. https://wccftech.com/tsmc-cutting-edge-sow-x-packaging-set-f...
	▲	xadhominemx 3 days ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		Why would you say 16A would never be manufactured in the United States? It is of course TSMC’s plan of record.