Yup - at some level of scale it's very much an infrastructure game.

No amount of trade war politics will make up for a lack in infrastructure investment.

In 24 months, US hyperscalers will be training models on GPUs/XPUs with 16A process technology and HBM4E. The gap between the raw processing power of US and Chinese AI hardware will be widening.

▲

jamiek88 4 days ago | parent [-]

I wish I had your confidence being able to forecast 24 months ahead. In 24 months TSMC could be a smoking crater.

There won’t be 16A manufacturing here in the USA.

Probably ever.

We live in extremely dangerous uncertain times.

Any forecast that long is worthless.

	▲	UltraSane 4 days ago \| parent \| next [-]
		You seem extremely pessimistic. TSMC SoW-X will put an entire wafer worth of chips on a single substrate and be incredibly fast. https://wccftech.com/tsmc-cutting-edge-sow-x-packaging-set-f...
	▲	xadhominemx 3 days ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		Why would you say 16A would never be manufactured in the United States? It is of course TSMC’s plan of record.