It’s still too early to see real benefits.

Wrapping business processes around these LLMs is the same kind of hard organizational problem plaguing most internal IT projects. People are still the bottleneck.

You also run into the issue of accuracy compounding. Running multi step flows with AI compounds the success rate and dramatically increases the chances of a full-job failure. E.g. even at 99% success rate for any single step, a 30-step process is only likely to succeed 75% of the time without errors. If you go down to 95% success for each, you only have a 75% likelihood of flawless execution at about 6 steps.

So it’s also about getting those per step success rates way up.

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lenzm a day ago | parent [-]

It has been years, when will it not be too early?

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1970-01-01 a day ago | parent | next [-]

Let's see what the MBAs are trying, what is sticking, and how long that takes:

On-prem to cloud -- took about 10 years. De-facto success.

Blockchain to new age of finance -- 12 years later, not much success overall (Instant regret on anyone dumb enough to buy junk crypto and NFTs)

Quantum computing -- 10ish years later, nothing major, but it might bear fruit long-term.

LLMs -- Let's average all the above and say 11 years from 2022. So 2033 is when you can say it was a bust.

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bluefirebrand a day ago | parent | prev [-]

Something I'm noticing is that people in my network have lost some kind of concept of time passing

I had a conversation with an acquaintance a few weeks ago who was adamant that ChatGPT only really showed up less than a year ago. They were absolutely mind blown when I pointed out that ChatGPT got crazy popular literally years ago, late 2022, early 2023. They were convinced this was still very new stuff, like 8 months ago or so

I don't really blame people either. Personally I feel like the years since COVID have been a weird blur. People don't realize that lockdowns were half a decade ago already

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thewebguyd a day ago | parent [-]

> People don't realize that lockdowns were half a decade ago already

Myself included. My perception of time has been off ever since, and 2020 quite literally feels like it was just last year.

Same for my peers. I'd really be curious to see some study done on this, and why this distorted perception of time exists now. I'm not sure I can attribute it to lock-down necessarily. I was already fully remote pre-COVID, and my habits nor work schedule changed during lock downs other than wearing a mask whenever I left the house.

	▲	etblg a day ago \| parent [-]
		I just assumed it was me getting old, but I do go "oh yeah that time when" and then realizing that was a literal decade ago. It all does just bleed together, COVID feels like it was just yesterday, 2015 feels like it was just last year, 2001 feels like a decade ago but that was 24 years. I still just blame it on being old though.