Let's see what the MBAs are trying, what is sticking, and how long that takes:

On-prem to cloud -- took about 10 years. De-facto success.

Blockchain to new age of finance -- 12 years later, not much success overall (Instant regret on anyone dumb enough to buy junk crypto and NFTs)

Quantum computing -- 10ish years later, nothing major, but it might bear fruit long-term.

LLMs -- Let's average all the above and say 11 years from 2022. So 2033 is when you can say it was a bust.