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| ▲ | the_af 5 days ago | parent [-] | | I recently read/watched videos about the "population time bomb" in South Korea and how it's almost irreversible now. It really surprised me, it's one of those things that's hard to visualize. And it's not even long term! | | |
| ▲ | wkat4242 4 days ago | parent [-] | | They can always allow more immigration. National populations don't grow only by births. | | |
| ▲ | the_af 4 days ago | parent [-] | | Apparently, due to cultural, political and economical issues, South Korea cannot/won't do this. I suppose it theoretically could, but in practice it would mean it would cease to exist as it is now. Due to the scale of their population collapse, the influx of immigrants would have to be massive. Which country does that? It would completely overtake its native ethnic population... which unlike a country built on immigration like the US, is surprisingly homogeneous. I'm no expert, I encourage you to read on the matter. It apparently truly is something that cannot be stopped now. It surprised me as much as it (apparently) does you. By the way, countries that are better off, like the US, are largely helped by immigration indeed. Which is why anti-immigration policies would be like shooting themselves in the foot. | | |
| ▲ | Ray20 4 days ago | parent | next [-] | | > Apparently, due to cultural, political and economical issues, South Korea cannot/won't do this. Because it's not a problem yet. What's going to stop them from doing it when the birth rate becomes a problem? Almost nothing. > Due to the scale of their population collapse, the influx of immigrants would have to be massive. Not really. You are mistakenly extrapolating the situation in the Western world, where purposefully brought in almost only criminals and freeloaders, to Korea. If you organize immigration of labor, then not so many immigrants will be needed | | |
| ▲ | the_af 4 days ago | parent [-] | | I'm not "mistakenly extrapolating" anything, I'm describing the current consensus by population experts. No need to debate me, I'm no expert, I'm just paraphrasing what experts believe. I'm as surprised as you are, I only recently learned of this. > What's going to stop them from doing it when the birth rate becomes a problem? Almost nothing Their birth rate is already a massive problem. The South Korean government already acknowledges this is a crisis, it's just that the measures that are politically/socially viable just don't cut it, and Koreans seem unwilling to consider more drastic measures. But the problem is already here, and acknowledged, and already impacting the population of South Korea (there's apparently a "loneliness epidemic" going on already). Because of the shape the population pyramid takes (more old people than young people) once it reaches the tipping point, which in South Korea it already has, there's no going back. No matter how they try, they simply don't have enough young people to revert it anymore. > If you organize immigration of labor, then not so many immigrants will be needed This is not (just) about labor, it's about population decline. Even if Koreans dedicated themselves to having more children, it wouldn't be enough anymore. They are beyond the tipping point. They would need massive immigration to live there and have children there and effectively become "the new Koreans"... and this is obviously unpalatable to many. I encourage you to read on this. Do not debate me: I'm not the expert here! | | |
| ▲ | Ray20 4 days ago | parent [-] | | > I'm describing the current consensus by population experts. These are not experts, they are deep state propagandists. I mean, fortunately (or unfortunately), such processes have been going on for decades, and these experts have been in business for decades. So, nothing prevents us from analyzing their early models, explanations, projections, and forecasts, and comparing them with reality in order to form an opinion about the level of their expertise > Their birth rate is already a massive problem. Not exactly. Low birth rate itself is not a problem. What is a problem is the future consequences of low birth rate . And these consequences generally have not yet occurred, i.e. there is no problem yet. > Koreans seem unwilling to consider more drastic measures Yes, because there is no problem yet > once it reaches the tipping point Then it will become a problem and nothing will stop them from bringing in some foreign labor to fix it. > They would need massive immigration to live there Not that massive. Your ideas about the required amount of immigration to fix the labor shortage problem are probably formed by extrapolating Western immigration processes. But the point is that you can’t extrapolate like that. There are no obstacles to carrying out immigration tens of times more effectively than the West does. Just to understand how irrelevant this issue is for Korea at the moment: the twentieth century was quite a turbulent time for Koreans, and now quite a lot of ethnic Koreans live outside of Korea. Many of them know the Korean language, want to move to Korea, but even with repatriation programs, this is not such an easy process. Korea has so many Koreans inside the country that they are quite reluctant to grant residence permits even to other Koreans with foreign citizenships. | | |
| ▲ | the_af 3 days ago | parent | next [-] | | > These are not experts, they are deep state propagandists. Deep state? I feel like I've stepped into a conspiracy theory. What does the deep state have to do with anything? Deep state from which country? The US? Korea? > Not exactly. Low birth rate itself is not a problem. What is a problem is the future consequences of low birth rate . And these consequences generally have not yet occurred, i.e. there is no problem yet. Why "not exactly"? It's understood by everyone that low birth rate is a problem because of its rippling effects, which are not immediate. When I say "a massive problem" I mean "already in the near future". But apparently it's causing problems for young people today, already. > And these consequences generally have not yet occurred, i.e. there is no problem yet. South Korean society is already quite unhealthy, and apparently for younger generations even more so. To be clear: the numbers alone don't tell the full story. Population density is not the important metric here, but population aging is. There could be lots of Koreans today, but if the distribution is top-heavy, it cannot help them. Let's do something else: link me a serious (non-conspiracy) study that there is no population decline crisis in South Korea, and I'll read it with an open mind. Be forewarned though, if it's a conspiracy article I'll ignore it. | |
| ▲ | alexey-salmin 4 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | Time shall tell, but as of today I think this view is delusional. For native Koreans this would do roughly as much good as mass immigration into Americas did to native Indians. |
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| ▲ | wkat4242 4 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | > I suppose it theoretically could, but in practice it would mean it would cease to exist as it is now. But it's going to cease to exist as it is anyway. One way or another. And the people that remain will not be staring at a wall waiting for it to end. Also, young people seem to have a radically different mindset there, which is what tends to happen when they see their parents screwing everything up. Maybe the culture isn't there yet but it will be. Having said that, I would never be happy to live in a country with strict moral codes like Japan or South Korea. But I'm sure many people would be. In particular conservatives tend to love these societies, you often hear comments like "this is what we should do here in the US". I'm a raging pro-lgbt polyamorous kinky progressive so for me it would be the wrong place. But there are lots of people that would love this kind of thing. | | |
| ▲ | lovich 4 days ago | parent | next [-] | | > But there are lots of people that would love this kind of thing. Doesn’t the fact that the people in said culture have decided it’s no longer worth reproducing, en masse, because of how their life is, imply that a lot of people wouldn’t actually like that kind of thing? | |
| ▲ | the_af 4 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | I mean, I don't know what to tell you. You seem to be reacting in disbelief, "this cannot be true". But reality shows it is happening, it is accelerating, and young people are part of the problem. It's a real thing, and the consensus seems to be it's irreversible, however bizarre it may seem to us. | | |
| ▲ | wkat4242 4 days ago | parent [-] | | I just think life finds a way. Societies don't just disappear. They just change. There's too much value in Korea to just give up. Will it disappear as we know it? Yes. But that is true everywhere. The America as you knew it in 2010 is also gone forever (and not for the better, unfortunately with its current politics). Same in Europe where the nazis are trying to take over. Change is a constant. | | |
| ▲ | the_af 4 days ago | parent | next [-] | | Life doesn't always find a way. Mass extinctions are a thing. Even human cultures & ethnic groups have disappeared without a trace. The South Korean population time bomb is a completely different thing to America in the 2010 changing. Have you read what people who study demographics currently believe about South Korea. An informed opinion is really needed to discuss this, this is not about "feelings". | |
| ▲ | alexey-salmin 4 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | Life finds a way, just not necessarily your life or your kids' |
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