I'm not "mistakenly extrapolating" anything, I'm describing the current consensus by population experts. No need to debate me, I'm no expert, I'm just paraphrasing what experts believe. I'm as surprised as you are, I only recently learned of this.

> What's going to stop them from doing it when the birth rate becomes a problem? Almost nothing

Their birth rate is already a massive problem. The South Korean government already acknowledges this is a crisis, it's just that the measures that are politically/socially viable just don't cut it, and Koreans seem unwilling to consider more drastic measures. But the problem is already here, and acknowledged, and already impacting the population of South Korea (there's apparently a "loneliness epidemic" going on already).

Because of the shape the population pyramid takes (more old people than young people) once it reaches the tipping point, which in South Korea it already has, there's no going back. No matter how they try, they simply don't have enough young people to revert it anymore.

> If you organize immigration of labor, then not so many immigrants will be needed

This is not (just) about labor, it's about population decline. Even if Koreans dedicated themselves to having more children, it wouldn't be enough anymore. They are beyond the tipping point. They would need massive immigration to live there and have children there and effectively become "the new Koreans"... and this is obviously unpalatable to many.

I encourage you to read on this. Do not debate me: I'm not the expert here!

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Ray20 4 days ago | parent [-]

> I'm describing the current consensus by population experts.

These are not experts, they are deep state propagandists.

I mean, fortunately (or unfortunately), such processes have been going on for decades, and these experts have been in business for decades. So, nothing prevents us from analyzing their early models, explanations, projections, and forecasts, and comparing them with reality in order to form an opinion about the level of their expertise

> Their birth rate is already a massive problem.

Not exactly. Low birth rate itself is not a problem. What is a problem is the future consequences of low birth rate . And these consequences generally have not yet occurred, i.e. there is no problem yet.

> Koreans seem unwilling to consider more drastic measures

Yes, because there is no problem yet

> once it reaches the tipping point

Then it will become a problem and nothing will stop them from bringing in some foreign labor to fix it.

> They would need massive immigration to live there

Not that massive. Your ideas about the required amount of immigration to fix the labor shortage problem are probably formed by extrapolating Western immigration processes. But the point is that you can’t extrapolate like that. There are no obstacles to carrying out immigration tens of times more effectively than the West does.

Just to understand how irrelevant this issue is for Korea at the moment: the twentieth century was quite a turbulent time for Koreans, and now quite a lot of ethnic Koreans live outside of Korea. Many of them know the Korean language, want to move to Korea, but even with repatriation programs, this is not such an easy process. Korea has so many Koreans inside the country that they are quite reluctant to grant residence permits even to other Koreans with foreign citizenships.

	▲	the_af 3 days ago \| parent \| next [-]
		> These are not experts, they are deep state propagandists. Deep state? I feel like I've stepped into a conspiracy theory. What does the deep state have to do with anything? Deep state from which country? The US? Korea? > Not exactly. Low birth rate itself is not a problem. What is a problem is the future consequences of low birth rate . And these consequences generally have not yet occurred, i.e. there is no problem yet. Why "not exactly"? It's understood by everyone that low birth rate is a problem because of its rippling effects, which are not immediate. When I say "a massive problem" I mean "already in the near future". But apparently it's causing problems for young people today, already. > And these consequences generally have not yet occurred, i.e. there is no problem yet. South Korean society is already quite unhealthy, and apparently for younger generations even more so. To be clear: the numbers alone don't tell the full story. Population density is not the important metric here, but population aging is. There could be lots of Koreans today, but if the distribution is top-heavy, it cannot help them. Let's do something else: link me a serious (non-conspiracy) study that there is no population decline crisis in South Korea, and I'll read it with an open mind. Be forewarned though, if it's a conspiracy article I'll ignore it.
	▲	alexey-salmin 4 days ago \| parent \| prev [-]
		Time shall tell, but as of today I think this view is delusional. For native Koreans this would do roughly as much good as mass immigration into Americas did to native Indians.