Prediction: this is the final big "hufff" before the bubble bursts.

Can you give us a date by which point you are > 90% confident in that?

Bubble will only burst when market runs out of money or new model releases provide little to none improvements. Or someone actually creates a real AGI. No matter how low that chance is, the FOMO among investors must be crazy.

If we make a comparison to the dotcom bubble, this bubble will take the equivalent of catsdotcom and dogsdotcom, not the equivalent of FAANG++. And even that comparison is iffy, because we just don't know where the end is with this one. We've seen capabilities only increase so far. We've also seen prices decrease by orders of magnitude between SotA "generations". Things continue to scale, and no one knows how far it'll go. There's a reason everyone is doing the coding agent cli of the month, and everyone is heavily subsidising coding - data, more data, and crucially (hah) signals on generation quality, acceptance rate and so on. Take that, put it in the new generation, training goes brr, post-training goes RL, etc.