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| ▲ | mediaman 7 days ago | parent | next [-] | | Interesting theory, but Amazon uses tons of stochastic methods (including deep reinforcement learning) throughout the business, including warehouse inventory management. "Determinism" is not some north star that operations people always adhere to, because the physical world is deeply stochastic and pretending it isn't does not make for a successful operations career. | | |
| ▲ | DenisM 7 days ago | parent [-] | | There’s Gaussian and fractal randomness. Fraud and transportation losses are Gaussian, for example - they average out to known values. An empowered LLM can wreck absolute havoc, and if it’s not empowered there’s no reason to spend $100b on training it. | | |
| ▲ | master_crab 7 days ago | parent [-] | | This really isn’t highlighted enough. Most real world probabilities that are evaluated follow a Gaussian structure. LLMs…don’t? Fractal probably? Heavy tailed maybe (like a Cauchy distribution)? But certainly not in ways that companies are currently accustomed to. |
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| ▲ | mensetmanusman 7 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | My favorite science fiction threat is an AI able to hallucinate an OS so well any hardware rectangle could be used. | | | |
| ▲ | flyinglizard 7 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I think Apple is just sitting idly and waiting for AI to mature to "just works" level without all the potential legal and PR minefields. It's too wild and unpredictable of an experience for their buttoned down, bland and inclusive corporate image. Apple may soon find itself producing very capable but dumb bricks if they don't catch up. Google can and will go all out on AI in Android at some point. Amazon I think just hasn't understood how to cohesively integrate AI into their offerings. Meanwhile they're selling shovels to the prospectors with AWS. I guess both of these understand the Ai moat is not very large, and don't buy into AGI dreams. | | |
| ▲ | pram 7 days ago | parent [-] | | Assuming most people will want more AI in Android, doesn't seem so popular shoehorned into Windows 11. | | |
| ▲ | flyinglizard 7 days ago | parent [-] | | It has much better utility in a phone (accessibility to camera and photos, various sensors, contacts, chats, smart home, payment methods...) than on a PC.
I can imagine an AI that's more proactive, I don't go to ask a question but it helps me manage my day effectively and get more information where its useful. | | |
| ▲ | beeflet 7 days ago | parent [-] | | Okay, but does it need to be deeply integrated into the OS or can it just interact with programs through their normal interfaces? The most effective way to get an LLM to control a computer right now is to just give it a unix terminal because it's already a text-based environment where programs are expected to be highly interoperable. What I'm saying is that you don't need to stop everything to redesign around AI, just allow for a decent level of interoperability that iOS (and largely android) doesn't currently have. The mobile app development model is oriented around packaging somewhat useful software (that could usually be a web app) with malware and selling it for $0.99, necessitating a ton of sandboxing and preventing this type of interoperability in the first place. I would say focus on the semantic HTML aspect of the web and design some way for LLMs to interact with websites in an open-ended way. |
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| ▲ | arduanika 7 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | A reasonable theory. Apple does hardware and supply chains, and sees how far there is to go. Nvidia does hardware too, but it's profiting hugely from the AI boom and has no reason to push back. How do you explain the Elon keiretsu, though? Tesla and SpaceX are pretty tethered to the physical world, and in theory should have visibility into the same discrepancies that Apple sees. So why is Elon pushing so hard to develop Grok? Is it just ideology for him, or what? | | |
| ▲ | 4dregress 7 days ago | parent | next [-] | | Who knows what’s going on in that mad man’s mind! | | |
| ▲ | mensetmanusman 7 days ago | parent [-] | | Elon, like everyone, is smart at some things and dumb at others. When you realize that about the world, it will help you learn from the smart sides of folks. | | |
| ▲ | lawlessone 7 days ago | parent [-] | | what's Elon smart at though? so i can learn.. | | |
| ▲ | Nevermark 7 days ago | parent | next [-] | | Despite his mad and destructive social and political side, as an engineer and business man he is extremely smart and effective. He makes lots of unnecessary major and cringy mistakes in both engineering and business too, but his net on both counts is astounding. And while he may overuse it for PR, he has put himself at great financial risk when pushing through major capability developments and business hurdles. His rewards were earned. But the sick picture of the richest person in the world, spamming stupidity, and harming countless numbers of people's lives in order to prop up his juvenile ego is hard to look past for many. For good reason. He is a strong mix of both extremes of capability/impact spectrum, not just one. | |
| ▲ | decimalenough 7 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Reality distortion. Financial shenanigans. Hiring people who can execute. And, despite all the haters, he does understand rocket science pretty well, and rocket economics even better. | | |
| ▲ | habinero 7 days ago | parent [-] | | Eh, not really. He managed to hire people who can manage him well enough to get him out of the way. | | |
| ▲ | decimalenough 6 days ago | parent | next [-] | | Spin it any way you like, but he's still hiring people who deliver. | | |
| ▲ | habinero 6 days ago | parent [-] | | It's not really spin. He's the wallet, not the talent. | | |
| ▲ | decimalenough 6 days ago | parent [-] | | So why did Bezos get nowhere with Blue Origin despite throwing more money at it? Or every car manufacturer that tried to build EVs before Tesla? Or every satellite internet provider before Starlink? |
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| ▲ | mensetmanusman 7 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | Apparently nearly zero people can do this. | | |
| ▲ | stockresearcher 7 days ago | parent [-] | | (2012) https://www.northwestern.edu/magazine/spring2012/feature/roc... > Shotwell had lunch with a co-worker who had just joined the then-startup company SpaceX. They walked by the cubicle of CEO Elon Musk. “I said, ‘Oh, Elon, nice to meet you. You really need a new business developer,’” Shotwell recalls. “It just popped out. I was bad. It was very rude.” Or just bold enough to capture Musk’s attention. He called her later that day in 2002 and recruited her to be vice president of business development, his seventh employee. Can you imagine something like that working today? |
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| ▲ | jlarocco 6 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I've heard he's pretty smart at making money. | | | |
| ▲ | vkou 7 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | Politics. Not the kind of politics that makes people like you, but the kind of politics that gives you power. |
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| ▲ | llbbdd 7 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | IMO Grok is the downstream consumer result of internal investment in AI at Twitter. One of the first things Elon did after buying was put all the useful APIs behind a paywall, which would be a reasonable first step if you bought it in part for the enormous training data the platform generates every day and wanted to limit competitors' access to it. Grok is then mostly just a way to get feedback on the tech. | | | |
| ▲ | Rover222 7 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | [dead] | |
| ▲ | hugedickfounder 7 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | [dead] |
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| ▲ | nikodunk 7 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | Hey! Your words echo this IMO! If not, strongly recommended :) https://www.notboring.co/p/the-electric-slide |
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