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SilverElfin 9 days ago

I wonder what the accuracy of the data is like. And what do you do about damaged pipes? I read that cities lose a lot of water to leaks. Doesn’t that also mean pollutants can get in? And it won’t matter if your pipe is lead or whatever else.

An aside: lead exposure is thought to lead to increase violence. I wonder if Chicago having the most lead pipes is also a contributing cause of their (reputed) crime problem.

hedora 5 days ago | parent | next [-]

Crime’s down in Chicago. 2024 saw a ~6-7% drop:

https://www.chicagopolice.org/wp-content/uploads/2024-CPD-An...

There are pages of tables comparing 2023 and 2024 on page 108. Sadly, they don’t go back multiple years.

Page 112 says there were 9112 aggravated assaults in 2024.

Page 10 of the 2004 report says there were 18,731 that year.

I’m sure you can find someone that’s graphed the trends online. Maybe an LLM can do it. Anyway, there isn’t a violent crime crisis in Chicago.

Reports going back to the 1990’s: https://www.chicagopolice.org/statistics-data/statistical-re...

buckle8017 5 days ago | parent | next [-]

Crime statistics are virtually all based on arrest and police reports.

When crimes aren't prosecuted the police don't make arrests and the public don't make reports.

Crime stats are basically useless if the prosecutors aren't bringing charges, which is exactly what's happening all over the country.

hedora 5 days ago | parent | next [-]

The reports I linked include everything the police department does, including picking up the phone, number of times the officers are sent out, number of times guns are pulled, discharged, number of times a suspect is pursued, subdued, handcuffed, etc.

Rather than believe and re-repeat lies from propaganda outlets (we have really good propaganda in the US and it uses social media to spread), check primary sources.

It takes less time than writing this comment did.

epistasis 5 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

It's quite the claim to say that the police are hiding violent crime reports. It would be a massive indictment of local police departments.

What evidence do you have of this dereliction of duty?

JumpCrisscross 5 days ago | parent | next [-]

> It would be a massive indictment of local police departments

And be against their self interests. When crime is up, police get more money.

buckle8017 5 days ago | parent | prev [-]

[flagged]

ortusdux 5 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Are there any robust alternate crime tracking methods? Drug metabolites in sewage? Shotspotter data? Insurance claims? Replacement car windows per capita? GPS data? There must be enough alternative metrics to make it possible to compare crime and enforcement.

freen 5 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Arrest stats are also at historic lows.

Criminal complaints are at historic lows.

Murder, which is kinda hard to “juke the stats”, is at historic lows.

Where is your evidence?

queenkjuul 5 days ago | parent | prev [-]

CPD has not stopped prosecuting anyone.

throwmeaway222 5 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Crime is up like crazy. Crime reporting within departments is down

tptacek 5 days ago | parent | next [-]

This is why the gold standard violent crime metric is homicides, which are consistently reported everywhere. Homicides in Chicago are sharply down (bears repeating that Chicago is nowhere near the top of the violent crime leaderboard in America --- it's just a lot bigger than people think it is).

root_axis 5 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Based on what?

Rebelgecko 5 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

For things like shoplifting, that's plausible. But I have a hard time believing that murder rates are down because people are just ignoring dead bodies.

freen 5 days ago | parent | prev [-]

Why would cops not report on crime?

Seems counter to the incentive structures of police departments.

nickff 5 days ago | parent [-]

Not parent, and I don’t know about Chicago (I’ve never even visited Illinois), but if the police response is unsatisfying, people just don’t bother to report many crimes to the police. It is common for many ordinary people not to report property crimes unless required by an insurer, and many violent crimes against minorities or troubled people also go unreported due to lack of trust in the police.

hedora 5 days ago | parent [-]

Almost all of the 2024 report talks about community trust in police. There’s a reason the crime stats start on page 108.

They also have stats on number of times people call or report crimes vs. number of arrests, gun pulls, etc.

Those stats overwhelmingly disprove the theory that trust in the police department has eroded and people are no longer reporting crime.

nickff 5 days ago | parent [-]

Those stats actually indicate to me that many crimes are being under-reported, at least by certain groups. Compare the race & gender distribution of murder and aggravated assaults to other crimes; murders are obviously well-reported, but I highly suspect that the same people who are likely to be murdered are also likely to be robbed, battered, and assaulted, yet certain minorities make up much smaller proportions of reported victims in the 'less-heinous crimes'.

Additionally, while you think that the ordering of the report is in order of police’s priorities, I (more cynically) think it reflects them ‘burying’ the numbers.

blindriver 5 days ago | parent | prev [-]

[flagged]

tdb7893 5 days ago | parent | next [-]

Crime is down just based on the actual numbers (also anecdotally from someone who has spent the majority of their life in/around the city) and for most people the city is pretty safe right now. While there is violence this sort of pearl clutching historically hurts those exact communities you're talking about (and also is not how the people I've met from those communities described their experiences anyway).

blindriver 5 days ago | parent [-]

Crime is only down because you're comparing against the pandemic highs. If you look at the long term trends, it's still up and to the right compared to 10 years ago and previous to that. The fact you are okay with this disgusting level of violence in minority communities is really something else.

kittoes 5 days ago | parent | next [-]

This just isn't true... none of the available data backs up these claims. Go back 10, 20, even 30 years and the trend has only lowered. Crime peaked in the early nineties and even the COVID spike didn't come close to that peak. If you're going to make such outlandish claims, then you'd better have something other than feels backing you.

tdb7893 5 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

"disgusting level of violence in minority communities" -> this is so clearly an insulting way to refer to these communities it boggles the mind that someone would say it while accusing someone else of not being concerned enough. These communities have people I like and care about so I do care about these communities, which is exactly why I am careful about what I say and don't compare them to warzones or tell them about what violence is like in their communities (it reeks of the same condescension towards these communities that I grew up with in the suburbs).

If you're in these communities in Chicago then I'm sorry but judging from your general ignorance of Chicago it seems pretty clear that you are not.

blindriver 5 days ago | parent [-]

It is pure racism to not stop the violence in the Black and Brown communities in Chicago. They are suffering a debilitated life living under the threat of constant violence and you are perpetuating it for some reason that I don't understand.

kittoes 5 days ago | parent [-]

Cut the crap, 'cause you don't actually care. It's blatantly obvious that you're either pulling off a weak troll or are willfully ignorant.

queenkjuul 5 days ago | parent | prev [-]

You're either grossly misinformed or deliberately lying. Crime peaked in the 90s and has not returned to those levels at any point.

Even during the pandemic peaks i never felt unsafe in the city.

epistasis 5 days ago | parent | prev [-]

That's a typical weekend in the US for a population the size of Chicago, nothing out of the ordinary for US fun culture.

The abhorrent level of crime is spread across the country, largely perpetuated by those who refuse to consider gun control. There were 16,576 gun deaths in the US in 2024, excluding suicides. 45 every day. About a third of those are children.

Chicago is close to 1% of the population of the US. Looking at three days, seeing a cluster of shootings, and not having the stats or basic business experience to understand the basic Possion distribution of events, is malpractice.

Whoever told you to be upset at Chicago, but not about the mass gun violence every day, tricked you. You got fooled.

silisili 5 days ago | parent | next [-]

Chicago has nearly 4x the murder rate and 2x the violent crime rate compared to the US at large.

kittoes 5 days ago | parent [-]

Yet it isn't even in the top 20 cities for murder, nor the top 50 for overall crime. The only reason so many are focusing specifically on Chicago is because their cult leader told them to.

blindriver 5 days ago | parent [-]

Chicago is the 3rd largest city in the US and has the highest total number of murders in the US. Why does this not matter to you?

queenkjuul 5 days ago | parent | next [-]

Total numbers are meaningless. Per capita is what counts. I'm certain you know this.

blindriver 5 days ago | parent [-]

600 people were murdered in Chicago. Absolute numbers matter. How can you say that it doesn’t matter?

5 days ago | parent | next [-]
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queenkjuul 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Also what year were 600 people murdered? Not last year and certainly not this year either.

22,830 people were like in the US as a whole. Terrifying! Why don't you care?

queenkjuul 4 days ago | parent | prev [-]

How many were murdered in the US? Certainly far more

I also didn't say it didn't matter.

kittoes 5 days ago | parent | prev [-]

I made no such claim, merely pointed out the absurdity of focusing so much on Chicago while completely ignoring other places like Dayton. How come you're flat out ignoring the TWENTY other cities with a higher murder rate? It's completely disingenuous of you to focus on total murders when one surely understands that total population ultimately drives that value.

blindriver 5 days ago | parent | prev [-]

> That's a typical weekend in the US for a population the size of Chicago, nothing out of the ordinary for US fun culture.

This is an outright lie. Why don't you care about the lives being lost in Chicago?

Chicago has double the rate of homicide relative to LA, double the amount of rapes and 50% more robberies.

Why are you okay with just letting Chicago live in such high levels of violence by trying to pooh pooh away the facts?

5 days ago | parent [-]
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toomuchtodo 8 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

You replace them by running new service lines using directional boring, falling back to trenching when directional boring is not an option. In the case of waste and sewer lines, you can run an epoxy coating internally (“relining”) versus replacement, which has cost savings ($100-$250/foot of pipe).

Broadly speaking, maintaining this infrastructure is expensive because the need for labor is unavoidable and it is labor intensive.

brianwawok 8 days ago | parent | next [-]

Directional what? When Chicago replaces pipes, they dig the street up, put in pipes, and lay down a new street. I’ve literally seen them do this, then one month later tear up the same street for a natural gas pipe project .

These Chicago pipes are end of life and need replaced. They have been working on it for at least 20 years.

*in theory they claim to be working hard to better coordinate this between agencies.

toomuchtodo 8 days ago | parent | next [-]

https://youtu.be/jFTzwGv1sUg

https://youtu.be/t3hTQDfZrfk

https://youtu.be/BKGizzPJIqE

https://www.leadsafechicago.org/lead-service-line-replacemen...

> Replacing a lead service line with a new copper service means running the new line from the water main in the street all the way into the house. There are two ways that can be done. With open trench replacements, a trench is dug from the home through the parkway to install the new service and access the water main. Trenchless construction runs the new service to the main underground, causing less disturbance to the surrounding area. The type of procedure performed will depend on several factors specific to each replacement.

https://www.chicago.gov/content/dam/city/depts/water/general...

bluGill 5 days ago | parent [-]

Meanwhile everyone else has moved to plastic pipes which will last longer, are cheaper, and leach no metals (microplastics don't seem to come from water lines frome what I can tell, but I'm looking for confirmation)

toomuchtodo 5 days ago | parent | next [-]

Copper lasts ~20 years longer than plastic, making copper a superior choice for the longevity needed for the use case. Also, copper has anti microbial properties and rarely leaches in material quantities unless the water has a low pH.

cyberax 5 days ago | parent | next [-]

Copper is also susceptible to pinhole corrosion if iron gets into the pipes.

There are no similarly catastrophic failure scenarios for HDPE. HDPE also doesn't need plasticizers, so it should be safer than PVC.

bluGill 5 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

https://www.teppfa.eu/media/industry-studies/meta-study-100-...

plastic is often rated at less but that is because they don't bother to test any longer, when properly installed and used plastic should last longer than copper.

SlightlyLeftPad 5 days ago | parent | prev [-]

But has the tradeoff of using lead solder at every joint

frosted-flakes 5 days ago | parent [-]

Lead solder hasn't been used in the US since 1986, when it was banned by the Safe Drinking Water Act.

Scoundreller 5 days ago | parent [-]

“Lead free” isn’t zero lead.

> In 1986, Congress amended the Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA), prohibiting the use of lead in pipes, and solder and flux on products used in public water systems that provide water for human consumption. Lead-free was defined as solder and flux with no more than 0.2% lead and pipes with no more than 8%.

> In 2011, Congress passed the RLDWA, which revised the definition of lead free and took effect in 2013. Lead free was now defined as the lead content of the wetted surfaces of plumbing products as a weighted average of no greater than 0.25% for products that contact water intended for consumption, and 0.2% for solder and flux.

https://www.workingpressuremag.com/epa-final-lead-free-rulin...

A lot of municipal water systems have done more recent (but by no means required) improvements to the water itself to “coat” the lead in supply lines. Beyond just pH control, like orthophosphate. Most just in the last decade or so.

For Chicago, it’s an active project

> Polyphosphate is being removed because recent studies have shown that it may negatively impact lead corrosion control.

> Polyphosphate was initially added with the orthophosphate to mask discoloration of the water from metals such as iron or manganese.

https://villageofalsip.org/Chicago%20Department%20of%20Water...

akoboldfrying 5 days ago | parent [-]

> Lead-free was defined as ... pipes with no more than 8%.

This thread has had a lot of twists and turns, but I wasn't expecting this one. Yikes.

Scoundreller 5 days ago | parent [-]

A lot of brass fittings and fixtures with lead in them. Makes it easier to machine.

I wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of no-name Amazon and aliexpress plumbing fixtures still have a lot of lead in them. Keeps your cutting tool/machining costs down.

bluGill 5 days ago | parent [-]

Even big box stores that are careful sell a lot of high lead plumbing parts - they are just marked not for potable water and sold for use with gas pipes.

Scoundreller 4 days ago | parent [-]

Can still get full lead solder for similar reasons if you’re a cranky old plumber.

Probably can’t get away with using it in new builds but anything else, I’m sure it got used regularly well after the 1986 “ban” and still today.

coryrc 5 days ago | parent | prev [-]

Contaminants can migrate from soil through plastic, which is a problem in the rust belt, but can be dealt with an aluminum barrier layer. What is harder to avoid is endocrine-disrupting plasticizers, because of regulatory capture.

https://www.pe100plus.com/PE-Pipes/Technical-guidance/model/...

stockresearcher 6 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> in theory they claim to be working hard to better coordinate this between agencies.

This is true. For the private sector, it works pretty well. Road digging permits are posted on their webpage 6+ months in advance. If you see one on a section of street you planned to do work on, you are allowed to piggyback on the project and share the cost. If you don’t, you pay the entire cost. So there is huge incentive to coordinate. But city agencies? Not quite so incentivized.

Spooky23 6 days ago | parent [-]

There’s lots of exceptions. The lead pipe hysteria and low pressure gas replacement is exempt from all of that.

Some states are more schizophrenic than others. New York is simultaneously mandating replacement with high pressure gas mains that require biannual inspection and banning gas lines.

Lead pipes are an engineering and chemistry issue. Pipes that are functioning properly don’t need replacement.

quickthrowman 5 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

They aren’t trenching through yards from the street to the house to replace water service lines, they’re digging a pit where the water main is and directional boring from the street to the house and installing a new service line in the borehole.

‘Horizontal directional drilling’ is the more technical term, directional boring is more of a trade name.

pengaru 6 days ago | parent | prev [-]

The Chicagoland area is constantly rebuilding the roads regardless of what the pipes are doing... when it's warm enough anyways.

peterbecich 6 days ago | parent | prev [-]

I don't know that epoxy coating is used at the municipal level. Pipe bursting with high-density polyethylene is the typical solution to avoid re-trenching municipal sewer pipes. Epoxy liners, epoxy coatings and polyurethane coatings are typical for a single property.

I would argue pipe bursting is the best trench-less solution for any place, but it is more destructive than those other three options.

mikepurvis 5 days ago | parent | next [-]

I had my residential waste pipe lined with a fibreglass/resin sheath about a year ago. Inserting it was a process involving a lot of work on endoscopes and then the liner itself was adhered to the old pipe using a bladder filled with hot water. See: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cured-in-place_pipe

It was over CA$10k to get it done, but the cost of trenching that line could have been 3-4x the amount + an unacceptable risk to the foundation of the house from destabilizing the dirt around it.

hippo22 6 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

I know epoxy coating is used in large hydro power dams, so I have to assume it's used for municipal sewer lines as well.

Workaccount2 5 days ago | parent | prev [-]

It's somewhat funny because most epoxy is just straight BPA. Yes, that BPA.

5 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]
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nkrisc 5 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> An aside: lead exposure is thought to lead to increase violence. I wonder if Chicago having the most lead pipes is also a contributing cause of their (reputed) crime problem.

It would be a drop in the bucket, if it's even a measurable contributing factor at all.

The primary cause is relatively boring: a century of racist housing policy, policing, under-investment, which results in a self-sustaining vicious cycle of poverty and crime. Couple that with broader national issues like the gutting of local manufacturing industry, the crack epidemic, the "war on drugs" and more and crime is what you get.

Chicago was (and still is) a segregated city, achieved indirectly through redlining and other thinly-veiled policies. Like many things, it's probably going to take much longer to fix the problem than it took to create it.

erosenbe0 5 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Median, normal lead exposure for toddlers in the 1960s and 1970s in any urban or suburban area would be 99th percentile by today's standards due to leaded gasoline vapors (and lack of awareness about paint dust).

So the crime hypothesis is more about baseline level of criminality being higher throughout the entire leaded gasoline era and for a few decades thereafter. It's generally framed as social science based on aggregate trends rather than individual dose-dependent epidemiological hypothesis.

5 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]
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qinsig 5 days ago | parent | prev [-]

Pollutants don't get in because water pipes are pressurized

SkyPuncher 5 days ago | parent | next [-]

Absolutely not true. Pollutants don’t get into the lines because there are decades of mineral deposits built up inside these pipes.

djtriptych 5 days ago | parent | prev [-]

isn't this only true if they are always pressurized?

frosted-flakes 5 days ago | parent [-]

They are always pressurised during normal use. When they are depressurised because of a water main break or for maintenance (and they try to do this as little as possible), orders are given to flush the lines before drinking any of the water.