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nomel 3 days ago

> A second option is more slow chargers installed places your car spends a lot of time parked, like offices or transit stations if you park and ride.

I don't think this will ever happen. It's the worst case in most every sense. You're talking thousands of chargers, for most parking structures, to solve a problem that's mostly about current battery tech/infrastructure. When battery tech is ready for general use, this won't be needed.

WorldMaker 3 days ago | parent | next [-]

Battery tech is for general use. The median and mean usage of a car in the US is 40 miles per day. A 300 mile battery gets you a week's worth of driving between charges (~7.5 days). That's comparable to a median ICE car that gets 300 miles on a tank, with the subtle distinction of needing a 30-45 minute fast charge versus a 5-10 minute refill. But that's still a once a week "problem" with useful mitigations such as it is dangerous and illegal in most states (just poorly enforced in many as well) to leave a car unattended while refueling with gas, but electricity is far safer and multitasking is easier and more convenient while fast charging. (That fact that most fast chargers aren't interesting destinations with enough things walkably nearby is a different problem to solve, that the market should be rather good at solving eventually.)

But that's all still treating EV charging in the old world ICE model which everyone is familiar. When people are talking about wanting more chargers everywhere a car may be parked, like offices or transit stations and other parking structures, that isn't a need, that's a market opportunity unavailable to ICE. You can't put a gas pump in every parking space, but you sure can put an ordinary electric outlet. We can distribute the charging "problem" of a car far more easily than the current centralizing forces of gas logistics. It's an amenity that anyone who owns a parking lot or garage can offer to encourage walkability to nearby businesses and/or homes. It's a possible revenue source for other parking lots or garages that love low margin business models like electricity metering and/or think they have a captive enough audience to charge whatever margins they like, to make the bottom line grow.

We don't need those things to happen. We've driven gas engines for enough decades without that. We want those things to happen. We expect market forces to eventually deliver those things, as soon as the market better figures out what EV charging disrupts in parking lot planning and operations/maintenance. You can't expect your gas car to have more gas when you come back to it in a parking lot, but an EV can have a slightly higher charge almost anywhere it is parked for a while and that's a game changer that will slowly spread as the market finds the fun (and profit or marketing opportunity) in it.

stetrain 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

Battery tech is ready for general use. Over 20% of cars being sold in California are EVs now, and over 90% in Norway.

Slow chargers are pretty low-tech devices, just a 208V-277V circuit with a device that handles switching, ground fault check, and potentially payment. These are going to be cheaper and easier to install and maintain than fast chargers, and I think adding them to workplaces is going to be easier than covering individual apartments.

That certainly won't cover all needs, which is why I listed other alternatives as well. The answer will be a blend of these solutions where each makes sense.

nomel 3 days ago | parent [-]

> Battery tech is ready for general use.

> Over 20% of cars being sold in California are EVs now

These are not compatible, if you're talking BEV. Regardless, you've provided data showing that it's not acceptable for the overwhelming majority of buyers, which matches market research [1]. And, out of that group, 30% want to switch back to gas [2]. Cost, and the massive depreciation is a factor related to current batter tech.

And, what % of commercial vehicles sales are BEV (which is included in general use)?

> and over 90% in Norway.

In California, 2023: 25% sales. 2024: 25.3% sales. There trend has slowed, maybe related to our ridiculous electric prices (fuel is cheaper, in many cases). It's very difficult to compare small European countries to a something in the US.

For some anecdotal evidence (which seems somewhat sufficient for the definition of "general"), I own an EV, and I know it's not ready for general use, because I will not be selling my gas car. In fact, I'm replacing it next month with another gas car. Most people I know have an EV (like 70%), and the majority have a second gas car that they say they will not sell. The majority of those that only have an EV say their next purchase will be a hybrid, all matching the trends shown in market research.

I'm crossing my fingers for another salt battery breakthrough, which are making their way into BEV [3].

[1] https://www.mckinsey.com/features/mckinsey-center-for-future...

[2] https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/25/ev-owners-want-to-buy-gas-ca...

[3] https://www.reuters.com/technology/chinese-battery-maker-cat...

stetrain 3 days ago | parent [-]

I don’t think it’s the battery specs holding back most buyers. For one thing transitions take time even when new tech could cover most of the market’s needs. But the main thing currently is purchase cost and charging infrastructure availability, both of which are improving at a fairly steady rate.

Most of the work going into scaling up EV production currently is about producing higher volumes of the batteries we have to bring costs down. A second prong is working on higher energy density and faster charging, but these solid-state batteries are going to be expensive and start in high-end vehicles, not economy cars for the masses.

nomel 2 days ago | parent [-]

> I don’t think it’s the battery specs holding back most buyers.

First link shows it's, at least, the primary (majority) concern for purchase. Price is part of the battery tech/chemistry package (~40% BEV price is battery), which seems to be the real killer:

> Only 33 percent of global survey respondents say they are likely or very likely to buy an EV at current price levels

stetrain a day ago | parent [-]

Yes. But scaling up current battery tech is what the industry is doing, and that will bring down prices.

Improved charging infrastructure also offsets range concerns.

alright2565 3 days ago | parent | prev | next [-]

> talking thousands of chargers, for most parking structures

My home has an average of 10 chargers per room; I don't think it's really been a big driver of its cost.

gambiting 3 days ago | parent [-]

I imagine the chargers you have are not drawing 3kW each though.

That's the main problem - your legacy infrastructure is most likely wired for 220V@32amps for the whole garage/street just to run the lamps from it, so 7.2kW. That's one EV charger, or two if you want to split them into 3.6kW feeds. If you want to run a proper 7.2kW charger from every lamp post or next to every parking space, that's a lot of brand new cabling that you need to add.

stetrain 3 days ago | parent | next [-]

Yes, but potentially easier than adding 250kW per charger for a bank of DC fast chargers.

The grid connection for one fast charger could serve 50+ L2 chargers, potentially even 100 with load-sharing chargers.

There are good use cases for both kinds.

alright2565 3 days ago | parent | prev [-]

1.6kW is the limit; but no, they aren't. But you don't need 7.2kW all the time! There's no way that every single car would need to charge at every moment, and I know this from walking through parking garages and seeing some cars not move for days at a time.

A EVSE could easily serve multiple spots, and fairly (or unfairly, for profit!) distribute power between cars from a limited supply

nomel 3 days ago | parent [-]

Please note, the context here is level 1 charging. 7.2KW is level 2.

With level 1 charging is only 3 to 7 miles per hour, so average of 35 miles in a 7 hour day (assuming you drive for your lunch break). Where I am, the average distance to work is around 27 miles (one way), so a net loss of charge.

alright2565 3 days ago | parent [-]

But the reason you drive such a long distance to work is to be able to live in a suburb, right?

Looking at the actual stats, you're a bit of an outlier: https://aaafoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/202309_... (p. 12). The average commute trip is 22 miles, and keep in mind you also could use a level 1 charger at home.

nomel 3 hours ago | parent [-]

No, it's 22 miles to/from work, one way [1]! My commute distance is only a few miles more, and my commute time is almost exactly the average time listed there.

For most, the purpose of living further from work is reduced total cost of living, especially if you're near a big city [2], where it's not usually an option. I save thousands a month by commuting a little, for the same number of bedrooms (which has a legal minimum where I am). If I wanted the same square footage, I'm saving > $10k/month, compared to being 1/3 the distance from work.

[1] https://www.census.gov/topics/employment/commuting/guidance/...

[2] https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02723638.2022.2...

theshrike79 2 days ago | parent | prev [-]

This is already being done in Finland.

Shopping malls have parking with literal hundreds of chargers.

Even my local grocery store has 6 Level 2 chargers and 4 level 1 chargers.

Hell, the McDonald's has four 350kW chargers. Modern cars charge faster than you can order a Big Mac and shove it down your throat =)

The solution is to have Level 2 and Level 3 charging _everywhere_. Then you don't need to have massive 100kW+ batteries in cars, because you can get a bit of a charge every time you park.

The first big leap people moving from ICE to EV have to get over is that unlike ICE cars, EVs don't "need" to be charged to full every time. You plug in, do your stuff, unplug and move on. Very rarely does one need to "go charge" during normal daily life, that's only for road trips.

nomel 2 days ago | parent [-]

> The solution is to have Level 2 and Level 3 charging _everywhere_.

I somewhat agree with this. My response was specifically, which I quoted, about "slow chargers" at office or transit, which I assumed was level 1. Level 2 is 8x faster, and can accommodate a 25 mile commute in two hours, rather than a net loss of change over 8 hours.

Level 1, at these locations, doesn't make sense.

theshrike79 2 days ago | parent [-]

Depending on the level 1 though.

My "level 1" at home charges at 230V/10A from a normal outdoor outlet, which is around 2.3kW/hour. During an assumed 8 hour work day that's about 18kWh, which is enough to move my EV for over 100km.

My commute is WAAAY less than 100km, meaning that the battery is, in practice, full every time I leave. Even dropping it to 8A would still be perfectly enough.

The biggest problem is that L1 chargers are just glorified wall warts, nobody is doing L1 speeds with proper integrated Type2 connectors.

nomel a day ago | parent [-]

Do you believe mass deployment of level 1 is going to happen?

theshrike79 18 hours ago | parent [-]

It already has, Finland has "level 1" at pretty much every parking location for block heaters.

All we'd need to do is remove the 2 hour hardware timer from it and make them 24/7.