Carpenters, landscapers, roofers, plumbers, electricians, elderly care, nurses, cooks, servers, bakers, musicians, actors, artists...

Those jobs are probably still a couple decades plus off from displacement. some possibly never, And we will need them in higher numbers.. and perhaps it's ironic because these are some of the oldest professions.

Everything we do is in service of paying for our housing, transportation, eating food, healthcare and some fun money.

Most goes to housing, healthcare, and transportation.

Healthcare costs may come down some with advancements in AI. R&D will be cheaper. Knowledge will be cheaper and more accessible.

But what people care about, what people have always cared about, remains in professions that are as old as time and, I don't see them fully replaceable by AI just yet - enhanced, yes, but not replaced.

Imagine a world where high quality landscaping exists for the average person. And this is made possible because we'll live in a world where the equivalent of today's uber driver owns a team of gardening androids.

Or perhaps in the future everyone will work in finance. Everyone's a corporation.

Ramble ramble ramble

> Imagine a world where high quality landscaping exists for the average person. And this is made possible because we'll live in a world where the equivalent of today's uber driver owns a team of gardening androids.

I think it's going to be the other way around. It's looking like automation of dynamic physical capability is going to be the very last thing we figure out; what we're going to get first is teams of lower-skilled human workers directed largely by jobsite AI. By the time the robots get there, they're not going to need a human watching them.

Well when i get unemployable i will start upskilling to an electrician. And so will hundreds of thousands like me.

That will do very well to salaries I think and everyone will be better of.

Those jobs don’t pay particularly well today, and many have poor working conditions that strain the body.

Imagine what they’ll be like with an influx of additional laborers.

I would be cautious to avoid any narrative anchoring on “old versus new” professions. I would seek out other ways of thinking about it.

For example, I predict humans will maintain competitive advantage in areas where the human body excels due to its shape, capabilities, or energy efficiency.

What this delusion seems to turn a blind eye to is that a good chunk of the population is already in those roles; what happens when the supply of those roles far exceeds the demand, in a relatively short time? Carpenters suddenly abundant, carpenter wages drop, carpenters struggling to live, carpenters forced to tighten spending, carpenters decide children aren't affordable.. now extrapolate that across all of the impacted roles and industries. No doubt someone is already typing "carpenters can retrain too!" OK, so they're back to entry level wages (if anything) for 5+ years? Same story. And retrain to what?

At some point an equilibrium will be reached but there is no guarantee it will be a healthy situation or a smooth ride. This optimism about AI and the rosy world that is just around the corner is incredibly naive.

I just have to see how you get let’s say 100k copywriters trained to be carpenters.

You also force them to move to places where there is less carpenters?

In your example i think it's a great deal more likely that the Uber driver is paid a tiny stipend to supervise a squad of gardening androids owned at substantial expense by Amazon Yard.

That healthcare jobs will be safe is nice on the surface but also means that while other jobs become more scarce cost of healthcare will continue to go up.