I'm not disagreeing with you. You understand that, right?

The parent was talking about stringing together inferences. My argument *was how you string them together matters*. That's all. I said "context matters."

I tried to reiterate this in my previous comment. So let's try one more time. Again, I'm not going to argue you're wrong. I'm going to argue that more context is needed to determine if likelihood increases or decreases. I need to stress this before moving on.

Let's go one more comment back, when I'm asking you if you're sure that this doesn't apply to the Bayesian case too. My point here was that, again, context matters. Are these dependent or independent? My whole point is that we don't know which direction things will go in without additional context. I __am not__ making the point that it always gets better like in the Bayesian example. The Bayesian case was _an example_. I also gave an example for the other case. So why focus on one of these and ignore the other?

  > ∘ doesn't tell you if something is a chain

  >  It's not any kind of combining, it's A->B->C->D combining.

Just ask yourself, how did you get to state B? *You drew arrows for a reason*. But arrows only tell us about a transition occurring, they do not tell us about that transition process. They lack context.

  > you're conflating chains with non-chains

Look, we can still view both situations from the perspective of Markov Chains. We can speak about this with whatever language we want but if you want chains let's use something that is clearly a chain. Our classic MC is the easy case, right? Our state only depends on the previous state, right? P(x_{t}|x_{t-1}). Great, just like the Bayesian case (our state is dependent but our transition function is independent). So we can also have higher order MCs, depending on any n previous state. We can extend our transition function too. P(x_{t}|x_{t-1},...,x_0) = Q. We don't have to restrict ourselves to Q(x_{t-1}), we can do whatever the hell we want. In fact, our simple MC process is going to be equivalent to Q(x_{t-1},...,x_0) it is just that nothing ends up contributing except for that x_{t-1}. The process is still the same, but the context matters.

  >  It's not any kind of combining, it's A->B->C->D combining. ***As opposed to multiple pieces that each independently imply D.***

       B
       |
       v
  A -> D <- C

And yet, again, we still do not know if these are decreasing. They will decrease if A,B,C,D ∈ ℙ AND our transition functions are multiplicative (∏ x_i < x_j ∀ j ; where x_i ∈ ℙ), but this will not happen if the transition function is additive (∑ x_i ≥ x_j ∀ j ; where x_i ∈ ℙ)

We are still entirely dependent upon context.

Now, we're talking about LLMs, right? Your conversation (and CoT) is much closer to the Bayesian case than our causal DAG with dependence. Yes, the messages in the conversation transition us through states, but the generation is independent. The prompt and context lengthen, but this is not the same thing as the events being dependent. The LLM response is an independent event. Like the BI case the state has changed, but the generation event is identical (i.e. independent). We don't care how we got to the current state! You don't need to have the conversation with the LLM. Every inference from the LLM is independent, even if the state isn't. The inference only depends on the tokens currently in context. Assuming you turn on deterministic mode (setting seeds identically), you could generate an identical output by passing the conversation (and properly formatting) into a brand new fresh prompt. That shows that the dependence is on state, not inference. Just like our Bayesian example you'd generate the same output if you start from the same state. The independence is because we don't care how we got to that state, only that we are at that state (same with simple MCs). There are added complexities that can change this but we can't go there if we can't get to this place first. We'd need to have this clear before we can add complexities like memory and MoEs because the answer only gets more nuanced.

So again, our context really matters here and the whole conversation is about how these subtleties matter. The question was, if those errors compound. I hope you see that that's not so simple to answer. *Personally*, I'm pretty confident they will in current LLMs, because they rely far too heavily on their prompting (it'll give you incorrect answers if you prime it that way despite being able to give correct answers with better prompting) but this isn't a necessary condition now, is it?

TLDR: We can't determine if likelihood increases or decreases without additional context