Compare these positive introductory experiences with two technologies that were pushed extremely hard by commercial interests in the past decade: crypto/web3 and VR/metaverse.

Neither was ever able to offer this kind of instant usefulness. With crypto, it’s still the case that you create a wallet and then… there’s nothing to do on the platform. You’re expected to send real money to someone so they’ll give you some of the funny money that lets you play the game. (At this point, a lot of people reasonably start thinking of pyramid schemes and multi-level marketing which have the same kind of joining experience.)

With the “metaverse”, you clear out a space around you, strap a heavy thing on your head, and shut yourself into an artificial environment. After the first oohs and aahs, you enter a VR chat room… And realize the thing on your head adds absolutely nothing to the interaction.

The day I can put on a pair of AR glasses as lightweight as my current glasses and gain better vision, I'd pay a huge amount for that.

I hate my varifocals because of how constrained they make my vision feel...

And my vision is good enough that the only thing I struggle with without glasses is reading.

To me, that'd be a no-brainer killer app where all of the extra AR possibilities would be just icing.

Once you get something like enough and high resolution enough, you open up entirely different types of applications like that which will widen the appeal massively, and I think that is what will then sell other AR/VR capability. I'm not interested enough to buy AR glasses for the sake of AR alone, but if I could ditch my regular glasses (without looking like an idiot), then I'm pretty sure I'd gradually explore what other possibilities it'd add.

Every single HN post on AI or crypto I see this argument and it’s exhausting.

When Eliza was first built it was seen a toy. It took many more decades for LLMs to appear.

My favourite example is prime numbers: a bunch of ancient nerds messing around with numbers that today, thousands of years later, allow us to securely buy anything and everything without leaving our homes or opening our mouths.

You can’t dismiss a technology or discovery just because it’s not useful on an arbitrary timescale. You can dismiss it for other reasons, just not this reason.

Blockchain and related technologies have advanced the state of the art in various areas of computer science and mathematics research (zero knowledge proofs, consensus, smart contracts, etc.). To allege this work will bear no fruit is quite a claim.

> With the “metaverse”, you clear out a space around you, strap a heavy thing on your head, and shut yourself into an artificial environment. After the first oohs and aahs, you enter a VR chat room… And realize the thing on your head adds absolutely nothing to the interaction.

It doesn't if you use it as just a chat room. For some people it does add a lot, though.

The "metaverse" as in Active Worlds, Second Life, VR Chat, our own Overte, etc has been around for a long time and does have an user base that likes using it.

What I'm not too sure about is it having mass appeal, at least just yet. To me it's a bit of a specialized area, like chess. It's of great interest to some and very little to most of the population. That doesn't mean there's anything wrong with places like chess.com existing.

I think AI is inevitable in the way that bitcoin is now inevitable: it's not going to go away, it consumes a huge amount of energy, has various negative externalities, but a massive fanbase.

It doesn't really matter whether crypto is "useful", it has billions of dollars worth of fans. Similarly the LLM fans are not going to go away. However, there will probably be curated little oases for human-made works. We're also going to see a technique adapted from self-crashing cars: the liability human. A giant codebase is launched and a single human "takes responsibility" (whatever that ends up meaning) for the failures.

> With crypto, it’s still the case that you create a wallet and then… there’s nothing to do on the platform. You’re expected to send real money to someone so they’ll give you some of the funny money that lets you play the game.

This became a problem later due to governments cracking down on cryptos and some terrible technical choices made transactions expensive just as adoption was ramping. (Pat yourselves on the back, small blockers.)

My first experience with crypto was buying $5 in bitcoin from a friend. If I didn't do it that way I could go on a number of websites and buy crypto without opening an account, via credit card, or via SMS. Today, most of the $5 would be eaten by fees, and buying for cash from an institution requires slow and intrusive KYC.

> And realize the thing on your head adds absolutely nothing to the interaction.

There are some nice effects - simulating sword fighting, shooting, etc.

It's just benefits still outweigh the cost. Getting to "good enough" for most people is just not possible in short and midterm.

Bitcoin seems to be working as a kind of digital gold if you look at price development. It's not that much about technology though.

Give it some time - just like LLMs the first VR headsets were created in the 90s (for example by Nintendo). But it took another 30 years for the hardware to achieve levels of functionality and comfortableness that make it a viable consumer product. Apple Vision is starting to get there. And crypto is even younger - it started in early 2009. For people living in countries without a proper banking infrastructure the stablecoins are already very helpful. Billions of people live in countries that don't have a well audited financial sector, that respects the rule of law or an independent central bank that makes sound monetary decisions irrespective of the government. For them stablecoins and their cheap transactions are huge.

The question I have for your observation (which I think is correct btw) is:

Do you think it's inherent to the technology that the use cases are not useful or is it our lack of imagination so far that we haven't come up with something useful yet?

I feel like my personal experience of the metaverse is a really good comparator for LLM’s. Really cool, I can see the possibilities, I want it! It seems like it’s there, But I can also see that the gap between what exists and what would make it truly useful is too great.