| ▲ | jordanb 2 days ago |
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| ▲ | tomhow 18 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| Please don't respond to grand pronouncements about a nation or continent with one of your own. This just perpetuates the kind of flamewar we're trying to avoid here, and thus counts as flamebait, which is explicitly against the guidelines: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html |
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| ▲ | csomar a day ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| You being down-voted is more testament to the orientation of thinking clouding judgment here in HN. Ukraine losing the war will be a massive blow for Europe. Sibling commentator mentioned doubling of the military budget but this disregard readiness of engagement and unity[1]. Nato was the creation of the US and the US pulling out requires, probably, another entity with committed members. 1: https://www.politico.eu/article/italy-grand-plan-meet-nato-t... |
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| ▲ | Barrin92 a day ago | parent [-] | | >Ukraine losing the war will be a massive blow for Europe There is no such thing. Even if Ukraine cannot recapture all of the lost territory, it's Russia who has already lost. That a country four times the population, ten times as rich has incurred a million casualties, switched to a war economy, has to throw tens of thousand of North Koreans into a war in Europe, merely to creep forward by a few meters has to be the largest humiliation to an alleged "great power" in a century. All of this while Europe has not even remilitarized, with Ukraine becoming a major producer of military technology in its own right, the country is now largely self sufficient in terms of its drone output among other things, is one of the strongest signs of resilience of this continent. |
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| ▲ | mrtksn a day ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| >end of Europe How do you picture this? People in Paris disappear with a flash of light and baguettes falling on the ground? Or is ot more like the earth shakes and it all goes under the water? Or maybe something like Europeans collectively decide to do whatever Putin tells them? Or maybe suddenly adopt American and Russian way of life, like Italians burn their Fiat 500's and order Ford F-150's, throw away their wines and start brewing votka? Or maybe turn against each other and break down their functioning trade and cultural relations and just buy Russian and American stuff instead and pay with what? BTW the blaming immigrants and tearing down the social state doesn't work for long because you have finite number of immigrants and social services. If you actually get rid of those and things don't improve people start to notice. A common strategy is to keep blaming those when not doing anything about it or even increase it but the problem with that is, people get tired and actually change you with someone who actually will do something about it and you end up doing something. This something can be to fix the issues and remove the pressure or remove the immigrants and the social sistem and you get a very strong counter action and flushes away those who did it. However way it goes it's not an end or beginning of anything as EU isn't an empire like the US, just bunch of sovereign states in coordination. |
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| ▲ | jordanb a day ago | parent [-] | | "End of Europe" as a coherent entity that's willing and able to look after its own interests. Even as Ukrainians die in the meat grinder and Germany is lauded as Ukraine's best friend in Europe, millions of dollars of dual-use technology products from Germany continue to transship into Russia via Kazakhstan. Imagine if it was 1942 and Britain was still shipping millions of dollars of weapons components into Germany via Sweden or Switzerland? | | |
| ▲ | mrtksn a day ago | parent | next [-] | | Europe is far from coherent, even if it is the most coherent that ever has been. Meanwhile, support rate for EU and Eurozone is highest ever among EU member states and Europe as a whole. If anything, people are annoyed that EU struggles to be decisive as Europeans want more EU, not less. This new situation even paved the way for collaboration previously thought to be far fetched dream. I don't know how all this will unfold but if tonight Europe ends as we know it, tomorrow we will have European federation and the discussions won't be about the petty local issues but thinks like EU army etc. as all Europeans are very annoyed by Russia, USA and the current state of affairs in Europe. Check the stats, Europeans don't buy into the agenda pushed by the American libertarians. People want bigger stronger EU to take over where USA abandoned. | |
| ▲ | FirmwareBurner a day ago | parent | prev [-] | | >"End of Europe" as a coherent entity that's willing and able to look after its own interests. Europe doesn't have coherent interests across the board but every country acts purely in its own interest even if it's at the expense of the other member states. EU is an org that replaced the battlefield so Europeans don't have another world war with each other but instead backstab themselves tough politics in the EU parlaiment. See the illegal immigration issue that still hasn't been solved since 2015 and instead of solving it, they just ban anti-illegal-immigration right wing candidates or parties from being allowed to take part in elections and pretend the issue went away. >Imagine if it was 1942 and Britain was still shipping millions of dollars of weapons components into Germany via Sweden or Switzerland? 1) Britain was at war directly with Germany in 1942, but Germany is not fighting Russia, Ukraine is, as the proxy, so German corporations can afford to profit form this war as the government looks away. Big difference. There's Realpolitik and then there's idealistic fantasy. 2) Britain could afford to declare war on Germany because Germany didn't have nukes, while now Russia has nukes and Germany doesn't. Even "better", Germany made its economy dependent on Russian gas. Britain didn't have its economy dependent on resources imported from Germany. Huge differences that make such comparisons not even in the same ballpark. |
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| ▲ | ben_w a day ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| That a Ukraine loss is seen as the end of a free Europe (because Russia wouldn't stop at least until at least DDR Germany borders), is why the other European nations are collectively increasing military spending. For a sense of scale (only scale, money is definitely not the most important criteria), the EU currently spends twice as much on their military as Russia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_with_highest... So if (when) American support disappears, I expect Russia to continue to not go anywhere fast while wasting a lot of lives in the process. I also expect this to surprise Putin, as he thinks Russia is a Great Power and therefore can only be stalling if Ukraine is supported by another Great Power and doesn't recognise that (1) Russia isn't, and (2) the EU kinda is, sort of, when it feels like acting with unity rather than as 27 different nations. |
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| ▲ | 4gotunameagain a day ago | parent [-] | | It makes no sense whatsoever for Russia to attack more states than Ukraine. The sole reason Russia invaded Ukraine was that it was flirting too much with NATO. Putin might be a lunatic, but he is not stupid. | | |
| ▲ | fnordian_slip a day ago | parent | next [-] | | The sole reason Germany annexed Czechoslovakia was was that there were atrocities being committed against the Sudeten[0]. He even made a speech at the Sportpalast in Berlin in which he stated that the Sudetenland was "the last territorial demand I have to make in Europe". So all's fine, and we don't have to worry about Germany. 0: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lesson_of_Munich | | |
| ▲ | berdario a day ago | parent | next [-] | | One big difference, is that the opposition to nazi Germany was relatively weak before the start of WW2: After Reginald Drax's mission to Moscow failed, the Soviet Union ended up signing its famous non-aggression pact. Italy was allied, Spain was neutral/aligned. Turkiye was neutral. Poland could only count on UK and France[0]. Compare to now, where the NATO military bloc is massive. No one would dare risking a military confrontation in these circumstances. If anything, when there are any tensions between two non-NATO countries, it makes it more urgent for one to oppose the other joining NATO (attacking before they'd join NATO would stave off them joining, attacking after they'd join NATO would lead to an unwinnable fight). 0: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anglo-Polish_military_alliance | | | |
| ▲ | jskelly 20 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | The article you cite says nothing about the /alleged/ [by Hitler as a pretext for annexation] atrocities against Sudeten Germans. The expulsion of Germans from Czechoslovakia _after_ World War II was an ugly chapter, but really -- there were no 'atrocities' being committed against that population /before/ the war. See also https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudeten_German_uprising |
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| ▲ | shafyy a day ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | It also made "no sense" for Russia to attack Ukraine. This is not about rational thinking. | | |
| ▲ | 4gotunameagain a day ago | parent [-] | | If we are to be completely rational, what made no sense was Ukraine thinking it could be a part of NATO, or independent. It is the sad reality of existing next to a superpower. You cannot be independent. It would either be heavily influenced by Russia, or the option B they chose: in rubble. | | |
| ▲ | ben_w a day ago | parent | next [-] | | Russia stopped being a superpower with the fall of the USSR. And before anyone says so, "has a permanent seat on UN security council" doesn't count, the UK and France also have that status and even combined were no longer superpowers by the time of the Suez crisis. Likewise "has nukes" is not sufficient. The EU is closer to being one than Russia is today, and even then the EU is only kinda a bit of one in some measures but not all. | | |
| ▲ | SirMaster a day ago | parent [-] | | Why does every source I can find list Russia as a superpower? | | |
| ▲ | ben_w a day ago | parent [-] | | To hazard a guess: because Google et al think you're the kind of person who clicks that kind of source. When I search for list of superpowers, I get superheroes — obviously nobody on Marvel or DC is going to be listed as having "Russia" as their superpower, but this does illustrate what it is that search engines do these days, and it's not objective truth. | | |
| ▲ | SirMaster a day ago | parent [-] | | When you search for a list of superpowers? I mean did you not simply include the word countries? Do you have a good authoritative source that lists the superpower countries that does not include Russia? | | |
| ▲ | ben_w a day ago | parent [-] | | > When you search for a list of superpowers? I mean did you not simply include the word countries? Sure, but also in writing this reply, "cia superpower list" to see if they had anything "authoritative" got me CIA's paranormal research: https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/document/cia-rdp96-00792r000... > Do you have a good authoritative source that lists the superpower countries that does not include Russia? In most cases, the statement I see is that the USA is "the", singular, superpower. So none of my sources are lists. What counts as a "good authoritative source", for you? And when? Samuel P. Huntington was highly rated in his day, but "The Lonely Superpower" was 1999: https://web.archive.org/web/20060427150630/http://www-stage.... RAND I think still are, and this was 2019, "Russia Is a Rogue, Not a Peer; China Is a Peer, Not a Rogue": https://www.rand.org/pubs/perspectives/PE310.html Is nationalinterest.org "authoritative"? "What Happens When America Is No Longer the Undisputed Super Power?", 2020: https://nationalinterest.org/feature/what-happens-when-ameri... I could link to Wikipedia, which says of Russia "potential" superpower (along with the EU, China, and India), not currently an extant superpower. But that's not what I'd call "authoritative". And this is the point where I got that link to the CIA's paranormal research. The CIA's World Factbook doesn't even describe the USA as a "superpower", at least not at the time of writing: https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/united-stat... | | |
| ▲ | SirMaster 13 hours ago | parent [-] | | You are proving my point… If you can’t find an authoritative source of who is a superpower then how can you confidently claim who isn’t? |
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| ▲ | inigoalonso a day ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | What of those two options did Finland choose? In reality Russia shares a land border with 14 countries, 6 of which are already NATO members (of the others the second largest border is with China). And the countries they have only a maritime border with are Japan and the USA. | |
| ▲ | Marazan a day ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Latvia and Estonia are members. Finland is a member. Lithuania is a member. The sad reality is that your logic is just a twisted pretzel to support the position you wish to take which is you support Russia's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine. | | |
| ▲ | dataflow a day ago | parent | next [-] | | Finland? Didn't Finland apply to join NATO in 2022, after the start of the war? | | | |
| ▲ | 4gotunameagain a day ago | parent | prev [-] | | I do not support any invasion. This is why I do not support the US policy that caused this invasion. And countless others. The US military industrial complex is a huge beast that needs an enemy to exist. There is so much money in the game. | | |
| ▲ | ben_w a day ago | parent | next [-] | | Which US policy do you think caused Russia to invade Ukraine? Was it the one where the USA, along with the UK and Russia, all jointly signed an agreement to respect Ukraine's (and several other post-USSR nations') independence and sovereignty in their existing borders (as of 5 December 1994), including an obligation to seek immediate Security Council action to provide assistance to the signatory if they "should become a victim of an act of aggression or an object of a threat of aggression in which nuclear weapons are used", so that Ukraine would give up the nuclear weapons it had accidentally inherited from the USSR? Put it another way: given your stance on the US mil-ind complex, do you think this war would stop if the USA completely vanished from the international scene? Because the EU is right next door and also doesn't want Russia thinking it can do stuff like this. | |
| ▲ | Marazan a day ago | parent | prev [-] | | If Russia attacked Ukraine because it considered applying for NATO membership that would be years of not decades away why did Russia not attack any other country that actually started the process of joining NATO and did actually join. The USA did not make Russia attack Ukraine. | | |
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| ▲ | mopsi a day ago | parent | prev [-] | | This line of reasoning is exactly why everyone bordering Russia is preparing for an invasion, and why no one deludes themselves with "Mr. Hitler will surely stop at Poland." It's not about NATO, ethnic Russians, or any other common excuse, but a fundamental collision between an imperialistic view of the world (represented by Putin's dictatorship) and a cooperative one (represented by the EU). Nations are naturally drawn to the EU, which does not force them to live under someone's boot, and Putin tries to stop that through raw violence. |
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| ▲ | triceratops a day ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | > The sole reason Russia invaded Ukraine was that it was flirting too much with NATO. I don't understand, are you trying to make Russia sound like an incel? It's not a flattering look. | |
| ▲ | ben_w a day ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | In addition to the other responses: > The sole reason Russia invaded Ukraine was that it was flirting too much with NATO. Which was only a problem for Putin because Putin's world view is that Great Powers (such as Russia, in his mind) should have a sphere of influence, whereas most everyone else thinks Ukraine is a sovereign nation who has the right to decide for itself which treaties it does or doesn't belong to. Even then, more like begging than flirting; the invasion made it much more likely. Likewise EU membership. | |
| ▲ | pjc50 a day ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | .. which has had the effect of forcing formerly neutral Finland, which shares a border with Russia, to join NATO. The claim that Russia has a right to dictate the alliances of other countries simply because they border it is ludicrous and violates international law. (Simo Häyhä had something to say about last time Russia invaded Finland) | | |
| ▲ | 4gotunameagain a day ago | parent [-] | | The same way the US has left all the countries around it alone ? Are you joking ? The list of US backed military coups in the Americas does not fit on an A4 page with a font size small enough to be unreadable. | | |
| ▲ | pjc50 a day ago | parent | next [-] | | Easy response: those were also wrong. As was the invasion of Iraq, which arguably ended up being used as a justification in the opposite direction. | |
| ▲ | ben_w a day ago | parent | prev [-] | | Another easy response to go with pjc50's: why do you think Cuba was so eager to get some Soviet nuclear missiles? |
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| ▲ | BlueTemplar 21 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Putin (et al.) has already proven to be stupid : the invasion of Ukraine was going quite well for him since 2014, he could have continued salami slicing it while the EU was still mostly asleep (and not willing to make a fuss as a Russian hydrocarbons importer). But no, he went for a 'quick' victory instead, and ended up bogged in a much higher intensity war, made the Russian military a laughing stock, and kicked the EU/Nato bees nest so hard that another 2 countries immediately joined NATO. |
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| ▲ | pjc50 a day ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| This looks plausible: > Europe will increasingly be ran by right-wing autocrats shredding the social state and blaming immigrants. This does not: > Ukraine losing the war will be the end of Europe Both the question of losing (the war is somewhat stalemated, and Europe itself is rearming .. although still not breaking dependency on Russian gas!) and the idea that this will somehow "end Europe". If anything, Brexit pretty much demolished similar movements across the EU. The EU's squishyness is mistaken for weakness by too many people who are fans of "muscular" rhetoric. |
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| ▲ | jajko a day ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
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| ▲ | shafyy a day ago | parent | next [-] | | > Pendulum has swung too far to the left, while the best long term place is as usually somewhere in the middle (which would still be extreme left by US standards but who cares about that)." Is there an EU state government where a left-wing party has the majority? I can't think of one, certainly not one of the bigger countries in EU like Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Poland...* | | |
| ▲ | hibikir a day ago | parent | next [-] | | So PSOE, the ones with a rose in their logo aren't left enough for you? They have a coalition with some parties that are quite a bit further left too. | | |
| ▲ | shafyy 10 hours ago | parent [-] | | Ok yes, let's count Spain. But this still is a blimp compared to the whole of EU, and certainly does not warrant saying "Pendulum has swung too far to the left" |
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| ▲ | FirmwareBurner a day ago | parent | prev [-] | | >Is there an EU state government where a left-wing party has the majority? I can't think of one, A single party? No. But a coalition to form a leftist majority, yes. |
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| ▲ | asimovfan a day ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | can you please talk more about the socialism that is prevalent in the EU? what do you exactly mean by "hard focus on socialism"? | |
| ▲ | BlueTemplar 21 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | In Europe, "hard focus on socialism" would mean something akin to the USSR. I am not aware of any party that could hope to win elections in their county pushing for anything close to this ? | |
| ▲ | mschuster91 a day ago | parent | prev [-] | | > US has trump and I see no end of US anytime soon, sure some self-harm is happening right now but thats about it, that nation is stronger than that. That remains to be seen. Trump and his goons are breaking apart the foundations of society as we speak, not to mention the decades of Republican gerrymandering. The complete and utter loss of trust in the US on the geopolitical stage is another huge issue, it will be a long time before Europe or Southern America trust the US again - the hope that Trump would be a short-term one-off event went out the window last year. > Compared to hard focus on socialism that was (and still is) prevalent in EU, some better balance is required in these times. Where outside of Spain does Europe actually have socialists even as part of the government? Most countries here are run by the far-right (e.g. Italy, Hungary, Slovakia, the Netherlands), centrists/conservatives (Germany, Poland, Croatia), Social Democrats, neoliberals (France) or coalitions of these. > Nah I am not worried about [Russia], they are consistently unable to wage modern war to benefit of us all. Never underestimate the willingness of Russian leaders to sacrifice their population for meat-grinder wars. > In the meantime we arm and train ourselves, stronger Europe is always better for any future scenario, internally and externally. Agreed, the problem is we can't be arsed to actually evolve to a truly federal society anywhere close to the US. Economically there has been a lot of integration happening, but politically... oh that's one hell of a clusterfuck. | | |
| ▲ | tromp a day ago | parent [-] | | > run by the far-right (e.g. Italy, Hungary, Slovakia, the Netherlands), Since the far right PVV stepped out of the Dutch governing coalition, they should now be placed with the centrists/conservatives. | | |
| ▲ | mschuster91 a day ago | parent [-] | | Let's wait and see what happens over there with the upcoming elections, and VVD isn't centrist IMHO but center-right. The voters of Wilders aren't gone, there's still a sizable far-right potential that leads the other partys to follow Wilders (the same problem as in France or Italy, it doesn't work to copy the far-right, it only makes them stronger while eventually the democratic parties erode). |
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| ▲ | nandomrumber a day ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
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| ▲ | Quarrel a day ago | parent | next [-] | | Ok, let's just take your facetious argument on face value. So that's $5.80 / hr in our land that has a minimum wage of $24.95 / hr. Still, a bit over 20%, crappy for sure (if it was true). Now, of course, most people are not on the minimum wage, and definitely not here on HN. The tax system benefits those at the low end more though, so let us look at median wages. Median hourly wages (in main job) are $40 / hr (Source: ABS - August 2024). Median incomes are actually a touch higher (because not just main job), at $102,742 / annum, which attracts a tax rate of 21%, before the MANY MANY middle class welfare rebates we get (Source ATO tax calculator for 2024-2025). So, for most of us, maybe we pay approximately our Monday to the State, but that gives us free school education, one of the world's best health systems per $ value (seriously, there are studies!), not to mention a relatively well functioning society (roads, police, firefighters, etc), on top of that we get the horrendous welfare state that you are bemoaning. That welfare state includes things like the NDIS, which is out of control and needs to find an equilibrium between all the rent-seekers, but the ambition is amazing! We SHOULD support all our disabled people to be the best they can in society! Meanwhile, even with such a fuckup, we're doing ok. Pull your head out, mate. Do we have issues? Hell yeah. But our terrible "social security state" is not the start of them at all. | | |
| ▲ | nandomrumber a day ago | parent [-] | | These are the facts: Australian social security budget: about $120 billion Australian NDIS budget: about $52 billion Number of working Australians: 14.6 million Number of welfare recipients in Australia: about 5.4 million, or about the entire population of Melbourne. Number of NDIS recipients in Australia: about 661,000 That’s about $78,500 per NDIS recipient. Democracy can last only up to that point the majority realise they can vote themselves largess from the public purse. | | |
| ▲ | defrost a day ago | parent | next [-] | | G'day again :-) Just to clarify to all. > Number of welfare recipients in Australia: about 5.4 million, or about the entire population of Melbourne. That's the number of unique Australians who get any form of income support at least once in a full reporting year, and there are a number of one off and short term payment types. It includes many people who are working, a number on pensions, likely children (I haven't dug deep, etc), students, and others. It's not the case that there are 5 million dole bludgers spending the year on the piss at the TAB, pulling bongs on the couch, etc. There's quite the list of support types here: https://www.dss.gov.au/income-support-payments It includes assistance for real Job seekers and helps keep them from being a greater problem, assistence with starting small businesses, etc. | |
| ▲ | aredox a day ago | parent | prev [-] | | >Democracy can last only up to that point the majority realise they can vote themselves largess from the public purse. You wish people would go back to forming loving families, but you believe people will naturally leave others to die in poverty and sickness once their eyes open. Which one is it, nandomrumber? | | |
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| ▲ | aredox a day ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | That's until you get disabled in an accident - or your son or daughter is. Then you'll suddenly convert to how benefits are essential. (In before: "I don't need a car insurance, I'll never get into any accident, I am too good a driver for that") | | |
| ▲ | therouwboat a day ago | parent | next [-] | | I have co-worker like this, he had minimal insurance, until he crashed his car and lost like 15k, doesn't need insurance for his cat until 2k vet bill, doesn't need doctors, until he gets sick.. You think he would learn at some point, but no. | |
| ▲ | nandomrumber a day ago | parent | prev [-] | | [flagged] | | |
| ▲ | zbentley a day ago | parent | next [-] | | You didn’t really answer GP’s point, though. What if a big, strong family is struck by disaster (multiple earners lose jobs or die, or one member develops, say, an illness or huge debt which consumes the entire family’s resources)? Those kind of scenarios aren’t that rare even in places with very family-first social safety nets (which, incidentally, are often places with high poverty and low standard of living). | |
| ▲ | aredox a day ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Who is "we"? The big welfare state was born in the post-war boom, a period of big, strong families that believed in the future. The dismantling of the Family and of the Welfare State, and of Unions, and of any kind of support and collaboration between salaried people go hand-in-hand. Late stage capitalism needs to extract everything from everyone, without opposition. Having people desperate for a job at any cost because they don't a a support network is the ideal state for our managers and bosses. Welcome to the anti-neoliberalism camp :) | |
| ▲ | mschuster91 a day ago | parent | prev [-] | | > The number of elderly Australians who live alone with no family, or no family nearby, is truely disappointing. That's a thing across all Western societies, and we got unchecked rabid capitalism and a complete lack of industry structural politics to thank for that one. Young people not living in an urban area have little choice but to leave there to find employment and higher level education. | | |
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| ▲ | user____name a day ago | parent | prev [-] | | In other words, every year each Australian pays 12K to other Australians? | | |
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| ▲ | briangriffinfan a day ago | parent | prev [-] |
| Promise? |