Let's wait and see if they're still unhappy about the bombing in one week. This is a pattern I've seen time and time again with his base, e.g. with January 6th - they start off unhappy & surprised until their media has started sharing theories and viewpoints that slowly move them towards accepting and supporting whatever happened.

I'd love to be wrong here, but I don't think I am.

▲ yongjik 4 hours ago | parent | next [-]

Not sure how much we can trust this poll, but it's already happening:

https://today.yougov.com/topics/international/survey-results...

> Do you approve or disapprove of the U.S. bombing nuclear sites in Iran?

Republicans say:

    Strongly approve 46%
    Somewhat approve 22%
    Somewhat disapprove 5%
    Strongly disapprove 8%
    Not sure 18%

▲

ExaltedPunt 4 hours ago | parent [-]

I don't trust YouGov polls. A few years ago everyone of their polls on English Politics came out at 71% vs 29%, which means they were sampling the same people repeatedly.

Also his base are a different group of people from Republicans, they are often a subset of Republicans.

You can go on Twitter, Youtube or any comment section and they are all saying "MAGA is dead", "I didn't vote for this" or some sort of signalling they are against a war with Iran.

	▲	yongjik 2 hours ago \| parent [-]
		I'm willing to buy that YouGov is a low quality poll, but you can't be suggesting twitter and youtube comment sections as a better alternative. Half of those comments might not even be human.

▲ ExaltedPunt 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-]

This is literally the sort of response I was complaining about.

Trump's base have been consistently against wars in the middle-east and him being too close to Israel has been a consistent criticism of Trump from way back in 2016/2017. So his supporters have been consistent about this for almost a decade. So I don't think your assessment is correct at all.

It been almost a decade now since Trump has entered politics and there has been one thing that been consistent throughout this period. That is the inability for otherwise intelligent people to state the beliefs of Trump's supporters accurately.

▲

Timon3 4 hours ago | parent [-]

Again: I do genuinely hope that you're correct.

But the pattern I've seen is that it doesn't matter whether his supporters have consistently been against something, because they'll change their opinion once Trump actually does that thing. They start off by levying some criticisms, but quickly change over the coming days.

We'll see soon enough who is right. My prediction is: in one week, there'll be broad support in his base for the bombing. I'm sure enough of it that I'd be willing to bet money on it, and I'll gladly come back here and admit that I was wrong should things not turn out how I expect them to.

▲

ExaltedPunt 4 hours ago | parent [-]

> Again: I do genuinely hope that you're correct.

I don't believe you. You went for the old "they are all brainwashed" routine, specifically after I complained about people doing that. Which tells me you have bought into partisan politics.

> But the pattern I've seen is that it doesn't matter whether his supporters have consistently been against something, because they'll change their opinion once Trump actually does that thing. They start off by levying some criticisms, but quickly change over the coming days.

No they haven't. They've consistently been against his supporting of the COVID Vaccine (to the point where Trump doesn't mention it anymore), Against wars in the middle-east.

The pro-Trump people were complaining about his bombing of the Syrian Airfield back in 2017. That was spun heavily by the media at the time.

You consistently keep claiming this to be a truism but it isn't true at all. This is wholly disingenuous or you don't know what you are talking about.

> We'll see soon enough who is right. My prediction is: in one week, there'll be broad support in his base for the bombing. I'm sure enough of it that I'd be willing to bet money on it, and I'll gladly come back here and admit that I was wrong should things not turn out how I expect them to.

Even if you were wrong, I suspect that you will point to some AstroTurf'd poll and declare victory.

	▲	Timon3 3 hours ago \| parent [-]
		> I don't believe you. You went for the old "they are all brainwashed" routine, specifically after I complained about people doing that. Which tells me you have bought into partisan politics. I'm doing that "routine" because it's what I've been seeing time and time again over the last years. I keep seeing lines drawn in the sand, those lines being stepped over, and everybody suddenly just accepting it and calling everyone who still keeps to those lines "RINOs" until they fully disappear. But if you can't extend this much good faith to me, we have nothing to discuss. Good day.