| ▲ | czhu12 10 hours ago |
| I could be wrong in the end, but my read is that there really isn't the appetite anywhere near the levels during post 9/11 or cold war to enter a war. Not in the US, and likely not in Iran either. Its hard to think of a full scale war that was started by the U.S. that didn't have popular approval at the time it was launched. |
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| ▲ | alkonaut 10 hours ago | parent | next [-] |
| The lack of appetite in the US didn’t stop this. And the lack of appetite among normal Iranians won’t matter much. War is better for regime survival than peace. This is a country ruled by a very scared elite that isn’t held accountable for anything and whose only means of survival is creating continuous distractions from domestic failures. And it’s similar in Iran. |
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| ▲ | abcd_f 9 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | > And it’s similar in Iran. Nice. | | |
| ▲ | alkonaut 8 hours ago | parent [-] | | Thanks. Autocrat jokes basically writing themselves at this point. |
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| ▲ | gpt5 10 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | The Iranian regime has gone through serious military blows in the past and survived. Their best course of action is de-escalation and regaining domestic control. | | |
| ▲ | alkonaut 10 hours ago | parent [-] | | Yes I was primarily thinking about regime survival in Washington, not Teheran. |
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| ▲ | czottmann 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I wish I could upvote this more than once. Well said. | |
| ▲ | ReptileMan 10 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | >War is better for regime survival than peace. Not when your adversary has air superiority and they can just kill at will the leaders and elite and not the schmucks. Israel's tactics is to kill important people and links. | | |
| ▲ | alkonaut 10 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Iran doesn’t have air superiority (you probably misread which countries’ regime I meant…) | | |
| ▲ | ReptileMan 9 hours ago | parent [-] | | Probably. Since of the three involved only Iran has a regime. The other two have democratically elected governments. | | |
| ▲ | tsimionescu 9 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | A democratically elected government that then flaunts the law and the constitution, such as illegally attacking another country without congressional approval, is a regime. Particularly when it has historically low approval ratings. | | |
| ▲ | ReptileMan 9 hours ago | parent [-] | | >But Trump is still running ahead of his approval rating at this point in his first term. And at this point in his second term, he’s actually running slightly ahead of Obama and Bush at this point in their second terms. From Rey Teixeira. So obviously not historically low. |
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| ▲ | zelphirkalt 8 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | Israel's government is probably only in power as long as they continue to start and wage war against countries in the neighborhood. It was very convenient for them, that the attack of October 7th happened, just when ten thousands of people went on the streets to protest against their attempt to take away power from the judges and elevate themselves. In the US the election might have been tempered with, according to newest reports, so the government might not even be actually democratically elected and Trump is playing the autocrat's playbook, going as far as arresting political opponents without a warrant. Iran no question there. That makes 3 out of 3 in my book. I am not so sure your statement is footed on a solid base these days. | | |
| ▲ | samrus 6 hours ago | parent [-] | | lets not go crazy here. israel didnt conduct those attacks as a false flag to dodge the regime change | | |
| ▲ | zelphirkalt 5 hours ago | parent | next [-] | | Lets not jump to conclusions here, about what I meant. There are other possibilities, that you are not considering. | |
| ▲ | owebmaster 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | all my allies are heroes and my enemies degenerates |
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| ▲ | zelphirkalt 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | I think you need to take a look at Gaza and revise a little about Israeli tactics. | |
| ▲ | youngtaff 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | Iran will just employ asymmetrical means of defense and it will go on for years Israel’s decades long subjugation of the Palestinian people hasn’t brought them closer to peace | | |
| ▲ | karmakurtisaani 8 hours ago | parent [-] | | > Israel’s decades long subjugation of the Palestinian people hasn’t brought them closer to peace Recent events have convinced me the goal is not peace, but extermination. | | |
| ▲ | zelphirkalt 8 hours ago | parent [-] | | That will be hard to do with a whole Iraq in between. I don't think Israel's military has what it takes. They already struggled in Gaza and are on the lifeline of US support. US could probably not even do it with massive amount of effort, and it would turn into a second Vietnam for them. Without troops on the ground no chance anyway. | | |
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| ▲ | samrus 6 hours ago | parent | prev [-] | | how long did it take to kill bin laden, the most wanted man on the planet? and what happened to afghanistan more than a decade after he was actually killed this isnt software bro. its probabilistic and has high variance. even then the expected value is vietnam | | |
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| ▲ | lif 8 minutes ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| the protests in 2003 were massive |
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| ▲ | lonelyasacloud 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| > Its hard to think of a full scale war that was started by the U.S. that didn't have popular approval at the time it was launched. There's not been a President like the current incumbent. |
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| ▲ | samrus 6 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| that read would have predicted the US not bombing not bombing iran, and yet here we are. the current administration doesnt care what people want. trumps own base is against and they'll still do it. the "nothing ever happens" bet is not looking likely. with the calculus trump and netenyahu have shown, this looks like its heading towards US boots in iran |
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| ▲ | UmGuys 9 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Trump only wants to get richer. He'll do as many wars as he can get away with. Laws don't matter anymore. He just struck Iran because he felt like it and announced it on his social media network. This is beyond Idoicracy. |
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| ▲ | powerapple 9 hours ago | parent [-] | | You think the not-Trump president would do something different? Not an American, but I have assumed the outcome would be the same. | | |
| ▲ | UmGuys 7 hours ago | parent [-] | | Yes. Trump shredded the deal we had in place an decided on his own to strike without congress. No one else would have done this. | | |
| ▲ | palmfacehn 5 hours ago | parent [-] | | https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-preside... >...decided on his own to strike without congress. The US defense establishment has been looking to attack Iran for decades. "Decided on his own", seems inaccurate in this regard. The outrage over unauthorized uses of military force is largely performative partisan outrage. Although I would personally regard it as unconstitutional, it is the established norm for US Presidents to order airstrikes. There are very few politicians who have been consistent in their opposition to this. | | |
| ▲ | UmGuys 3 hours ago | parent [-] | | Sure. Make a technical analysis of a casual comment. Of course he has support from others. At the very least defense contractors who profit from this. My comment was from his perspective. He only cares to get richer. There's always been an authorization for military force even if it's a blanket one and they claim they're fighting ISIS, at least there has been deniability. Here there's no authorization, it's unconstitutional. I don't care about partisan politics. Most politicians are scummy. |
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| ▲ | medlazik 10 hours ago | parent | prev | next [-] |
| Missiles don't sell themselves |
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| ▲ | wat10000 5 hours ago | parent | prev [-] |
| It’s hard to think of another president with a huge number of such dedicated followers, who actively hates the mass of Americans who don’t support him, and with a Congress so unwilling to exercise its power. Let’s say Trump decides to order an invasion. What would happen then? Mass protests? Surely. Impeachment? No way. Military decides enough is enough and removes him? Definitely not. He realizes how unpopular this move is and backs down? Lol. Lmao. |
