I haven't yet seen such a graph set side by side with hyperscaler capex, including forecasts. From a safety perspective the two should be correlated and we can easily say where the growth stops to be exponential (can't double capex every 3 months!)

If performance decouples from capex (I expect multiple 'deepseek moments' in the future) it's time to be properly afraid.

Indeed, I find Epoch (https://epoch.ai/trends) to be a valuable resource for grounding.

Progress is driven by multiple factors, compute being one of them. While compute capex might slow earlier than other factors, the pace of algorithmic improvements alone can take us quite far.