It won't be able to write a compelling novel, or build a software system solving a real-world problem, or operate heavy machinery, create a sprite sheet or 3d models, design a building or teach.

Long term planning and execution and operating in the physical world is not within reach. Slight variations of known problems should be possible (as long as the size of the solution is small enough).

I'm pretty sure you're wrong for at least 2 of those:

For 3D models, check out blender-mcp:

https://old.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1joaowb/claude...

https://old.reddit.com/r/aiwars/comments/1jbsn86/claude_crea...

Also this:

https://old.reddit.com/r/StableDiffusion/comments/1hejglg/tr...

For teaching, I'm using it to learn about tech I'm unfamiliar with every day, it's one of the things it's the most amazing at.

For the things where the tolerance for mistakes is extremely low and the things where human oversight is extremely importamt, you might be right. It won't have to be perfect (just better than an average human) for that to happen, but I'm not sure if it will.

> or operate heavy machinery

What exactly do you mean by this one?

In large mining operations we already have human assisted teleoperation AI equipment. Was watching one recently where the human got 5 or so push dozers lined up with a (admittedly simple) task of cutting a hill down and then just got them back in line if they ran into anything outside of their training. The push and backup operations along with blade control were done by the AI/dozer itself.

Now, this isn't long term planning, but it is operating in the real world.

Does a fighter jet count as "heavy machinery"?

https://apnews.com/article/artificial-intelligence-fighter-j...