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| ▲ | csense 2 days ago | parent | next [-] | | > Why is globalism such a bad idea Having grown up in the Rust Belt, it's a bit baffling to me that there are intelligent people out there who don't understand why it's a bad idea. It's a race to the bottom. The jobs all go to countries where people are paid almost nothing to work 90-hour workweeks, safety and environmental concerns are not existent, and they have totalitarian political systems where anybody who complains about any of the above will be shot. Said other countries have stronger economies which lifts their geopolitical influence and military power. You definitely don't want to give that to governments with those kinds of terrible value systems. Part of our society's narrative is that anyone can join the middle class: "If you just work hard, you can get a good job, support a family and live a nice lifestyle." The companies formerly supporting that narrative moved their operations out of our country; those opportunities were never replaced. A narrative that binds our society together -- a fundamental part of the American soul -- is getting destroyed. Which is a big factor causing the terrible current political climate. From the 1990's to today, a lot of Rust Belt places went from union blue to purple and then turned deep red in an instant in 2016 because somebody was finally acknowledging the problem. | | |
| ▲ | dccoolgai 2 days ago | parent | next [-] | | It's also the "lawyer/MBA's fantasy" that you can move the physical "making of things" to place B while the "good innovation jobs" stay in place A. It might work for a _short while_ but eventually the real innovation will happen with iteration in the factory floor in Shenzhen. All the Chinese leaders of the last 30 years were engineers and all of ours were lawyers and MBAs. Go figure. | |
| ▲ | bigyabai 2 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | Yes, it's a race to the bottom. But politicians aren't demanding that we should accept slave labor to make our Nike shoes - Nike does that. Tariffs won't change that either, they simply put a price on dealing with "undesirable" labor that Americans wouldn't tolerate anyways. That's how free market economics work on the global stage, I don't think anything has changed in that regard in the past 50 years. I guess I'm disenfranchised with the entire process, having grown up near Detroit. You won't bring these jobs back from Mexico, you won't onshore EV production from the grasp of China. GM said it, Tesla said it, Apple said it, and now you're listening to me repeat it. Americans can get mad at Europe or Denmark or Canada if it makes them feel better, but it's sure as shit not putting them on any short-lists for importing ASML or ARM IP. And we're fucked either way if we sit around waiting for Intel to "innovate" their way ahead. America can't lead the free world with a bum leg, it doesn't matter how icky China's politics are. | | |
| ▲ | alephnerd 2 days ago | parent [-] | | > not putting them on any short-lists for importing ASML machinery That ASML machinery in EUV and DUV is entirely manufactured in SoCal - ASML was the the commercialization partner in LLNL's Cymer Inc. > or ARM IP Designed in Austin Texas - right by Barton Creek - or in Bangalore next door to Samsung and Nvidia, and across the street from Google. | | |
| ▲ | fch42 a day ago | parent | next [-] | | Final assembly != "entirely manufactured". Cymer brings the EUV lightsource, Zeiss the optics, ASML the mechanics and metrology. Commercial EUV Lithography system(s) aren't "a single parent's baby" even if there is now only a single supplier. ARM IP ? I gather in Cambridge/UK they'd disagree with you. Even if in classical English stiff upper lip style they may say it less brashly (but not less harshly) than a Texan. This World is rather intertwined. Maybe more than we like or even more than is good for us. But all of us will loose if we strive to kill cooperation or trade "across borders". | | |
| ▲ | alephnerd a day ago | parent [-] | | The core EUV/DUV IP is co-owned by a mixture of National Labs, and much of the intermediate parts manufacturing has remained in the US as a result. It's not much of a check > Zeiss the optics Much of the photonics optics portion is in Dublin CA because of the DoE National Labs commercialization partnership > ASML the mechanics and metrology Much of which remains in California as well. > I gather in Cambridge/UK they'd disagree with you. Even if in classical English stiff upper lip style they may say it less brashly (but not less harshly) than a Texan Maybe, maybe not. Hiring data (both open jobs as well as LinkedIn) show otherwise. Their design presence in UK and US is similar in size, and the India one is not far behind. > This World is rather intertwined I agree, but the world is not going to end with a goods tariff. Canada and Mexico have been exempted (thank goodness Congress held the admin accountable), and much of the Americas, Australia, UK, and Philippines have been given a lower tariff slab. Semiconductors, Pharmaceuticals, Services, Automtive intermediate parts, and a couple other high value goods have been exempted. The only industries this really hurts is apparel and textiles (never coming back to America anyhow, but now it will return to Latin America) and assembled electronics (consumer electronics will not return to the US either, but Mexico and Brazil are now cost competitive over China and Vietnam). This kind of a change was inevitable - we faced similar consternation from Europe when we rolled out the IRA under the Biden admin, and we never rolled back the initial tariffs from Trump 1. There is bipartisan appetite for this kind of an action (more planned mind you) but still the principle of supporting American industries either thru subsidies like under Biden or autaurky like under Trump holds. Now go back to selling off your Satelite players (Eutelsat, OneWeb), Steel manufacturers (Port Talbot), telecom (BT), and battery (Faradion) players to Indian companies like Bharti, Tata, and Reliance. | | |
| ▲ | fch42 19 hours ago | parent [-] | | > > [ on ARM ]
> Hiring data (both open jobs as well as LinkedIn) show otherwise. Their design presence in UK and US is similar in size, and the India one is not far behind. If you're saying here that ARM is a company with a large and near-even (by headcount) presence in three countries (and much more distributed overall), then I agree with you fully. Else, what was your point again ? You said in your first post that a majority of ARM (based on what metric?) comes off Austin, and that is not true by your own later words. Anyway, I also agree we should be proud of the work done by companies such as (for example) ASML or ARM. Irrespective of where that happens, to be honest. |
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| ▲ | bigyabai 2 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | I'm assuming that America isn't a kleptocracy, which I will admit is an unfair benefit of the doubt. | | |
| ▲ | alephnerd 2 days ago | parent [-] | | This tariff was a change that was inevitable irrespective of party. I have qualms with it's messaging and rollout, but it's something that both parties were increasingly aligning towards. Anyhow, what's done is done, and now it's cheaper to purchase intermediate parts like PLCs from Germany (20% overall tariff) or Japan (24% overall tariff) than it is from China (54% overall tariff) or an iPhone assembled in Mexico (NAFTA has been exempted from these tariffs thanks to Congress) or a Nike shoe assembled in Philippines (17% overall tariff) than in Vietnam (49% overall tariff). Those jobs weren't coming back to the US, and if they were they would be anyhow be automated, but at least we can reduce some dependency on China, and give breathing room to either us or our allies to build some capacity. > Kleptocracy Not yet using the formal definition, but absolutely autarkic now like before the 1990s |
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| ▲ | 2 days ago | parent | prev | next [-] | | [deleted] | |
| ▲ | rayiner 2 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | > You can't protect American businesses if they can't compete on their own merits. The problem is that “free trade” math defines lowered standards as “comparative advantage.” So any first world country that maintains first world standards is automatically unable to “compete in their own merits.” Globalism creates a race to the bottom. | | |
| ▲ | s1artibartfast 2 days ago | parent | next [-] | | Trade deficits are a huge advantage for the buyer. Who wants to spend 12 hours a day doing hard labor when you can pay someone peanuts to do it? Who do you you think benefits: The person spending the peanuts or the person working 12 hours a day? Trade deficits are not a problem, but a huge advantage. Trade deficits are self correcting if you don't live on borrowed funds. | | |
| ▲ | rayiner a day ago | parent [-] | | > Trade deficits are self correcting if you don't live on borrowed funds. But we do. | | |
| ▲ | s1artibartfast a day ago | parent [-] | | Exactly, and that is the problem that needs to be fixed. Paying more for the same things doesn't solve a spending problem. It makes it worse. You could completely eliminate international trade and still have a debt problem. You just slowly sell the country and economy to lenders until there is nothing left. Edit: when you run a deficit, you trade worthless paper for real goods and services. If you don't take on debt, they have nothing to do with it but spend more and buy more goods. If you limit debt, you get negative interest rates in real terms | | |
| ▲ | rayiner a day ago | parent [-] | | https://www.silvercrestgroup.com/do-the-budget-and-trade-def... > Government budget deficits are part of national savings. When Washington runs a larger budget deficit, national savings goes down. In a closed economy, interest rates must go up until households save more (and consume less) and fill that gap. In an open economy, the needed savings can come from abroad instead, and as a result we end up running a larger trade deficit. This would suggest that if we eliminate free trade, inflation will force us to manage our budget deficits. | | |
| ▲ | s1artibartfast a day ago | parent [-] | | Only if you cancel foreign investment, which absolutely nobody is talking about. That is a closed economy. Nothing about trade stops you from selling your home and factory and national parks to China so that you can enjoy treats today. |
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| ▲ | bigyabai 2 days ago | parent | prev [-] | | The problem is that you're assuming the entire world agrees with your definition of "first world standards". As we have seen, not even American businesses give much of a shit about slave labor if it means we get higher margins on wholesale goods. If America cut ties entirely with China, then we could take a moral stand. But we haven't done that, because we are utterly dependent on China even when they execute foreign nationals and steal American IP wholecloth. | | |
| ▲ | rayiner 2 days ago | parent [-] | | Maybe I wasn’t clear. My anecdote wasn’t about Chinese IP theft, but rather American arrogance. We thought the Chinese weren’t as smart as us and were just cheap labor, but that was wrong. I don’t want to take a stand against or cut ties with China. I want America to be more like China, and rebuild our industrial capacity. |
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