They're still producing more artillery shells than Europe and US are able to provide Ukraine.

That seems to be the determining factor in this war.

These tactics have all been observed. Shells don't have a long range, bodies either. The use shells because of terror tactics and because they barely have accurate stuff.

Blow up oil and their economy will collapse. Funding military and payouts will decrease. No money for nuclear stuff. No troops to interfere in other countries.

War stops and their arsenal won't receive any maintenance anymore for the next 20 years.

Moscow's influence decreases, Russia collapses and will be split up in different countries again. One of them will be high oil production, the rest will benefit from passthrough payments ( instead of nothing before) and will be partially deserted as it always has been.